Tom Lee on AI Investing, Commercial Real Estate, and What Could Dampen His Bullish 2023 Outlook

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결론: 2023년 강세 전망을 흔들 수 있는 요인은 밸류에이션 과열과 이익(EPS) 리스크이며, 현 시점 AI 수혜는 엔비디아 중심이나 장기적으로는 인터넷 사례처럼 승자가 바뀔 것으로 본다. [강세 전망을 약화시킬 요인] - 밸류에이션: 미 10년물 금리 약 3.5%는 위험없는 수익률 기준 PER 약 33배에 해당하며, S&P500이 내년 이익(약 240달러) 기준 33배 이상 거래되면 약세 전환을 고려할 것이라고 함 - 이 수준은 S&P500 약 7,900 선이며, 그 정도까지 오를 것으로 예측하지는 않는다고 함 - 이익 리스크: 가장 큰 위험은 경기침체이며, 베어(약세론자)가 맞다면 하방 가능성이 있다고 봄 [AI 수혜 기업] - 현재는 GPU 수요로 엔비디아가 강세이나, 닷컴 시기처럼 인프라 기업(시스코 등)은 시간이 지나며 밀려날 수 있음 - 인터넷 시기 실제 승자는 온램프(프라이스라인, 아마존)와 검색엔진(야후, 구글) 등이었음 - AI 시대에도 승자는 바뀔 것이나, 당분간은 FANG 종목 추천을 유지 [상업용 부동산 위기] - 상업용 부동산 위기는 있을 것으로 봄. 특히 샌프란시스코 등 일부 도시는 빈 오피스가 많고 자산가치가 하락 - 은행은 상대적으로 보호되는데, 대출 상당 부분이 은행이 아닌 사모 대출로 이뤄졌기 때문 - 퍼스트리퍼블릭 사례처럼 담보인정비율(LTV)이 낮은 경우 자산가격이 크게 떨어져야 손실이 나므로, 상업용 부동산 위기가 곧 은행 위기는 아니라고 봄 [AI와 투자 방식] - AI가 투자 방식을 바꿀 것은 확실하나, 시장 수익률을 추종하려면 인덱스 투자로 충분 - 시장 타이밍에는 AI가 감정적 의사결정을 줄여 역할을 할 수 있음 - 다만 AI에 돈을 맡길지는 신뢰의 문제이며, 꼬리위험(tail risk)은 여전히 존재 [출연자 전망 요약] - 2023년 전반적 강세 관점 유지, 단 밸류에이션 과열 및 경기침체가 주요 하방 변수 - 엔비디아 등 AI 인프라 강세는 인정하되 장기적으로 수혜 기업은 변할 수 있다고 봄

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. welcome to another answer the community questions from our family members of FS Insight there's three questions actually I guess there's really four um like an extra credit first question is on the 2023 Outlook what could dampen our bullish Outlook there's two things that could dampen the bullish Outlook the first is uh and I'd probably say the simplest way to think of it is there's two reasons you can get bearish one is on valuation is the market extended on some sort of valuation metric now keep in mind the 10-year is at three and a half percent that's a 33pe for risk-free if the s p trades above 33 times forward earnings um and 240 earnings right now for next year so the s p got to around 7 900 this year we would probably turn bearish um that's not a prediction I don't think it's going to get that high um the second Israeli that there's earnings risk and earnings risk is really what the EPS uh be at risk and you know the biggest risk there is a recession so if the Bears are right or there's a recession then uh you know there could be downside I would say that's the second question number two what companies are poised to benefit from AI over the next decade it's a challenging question actually it's not as easy as you think right now people need gpus and that's why Nvidia is doing so well um but let's think back to you know 99 2000 and we said what companies are poised to benefit from the internet I think a lot of people would have said oh well it's the companies that make the plumbing for the internet that would do well and they did well for a while but then a lot fell to the Wayside I don't know if you guys remember companies like us robotics that made modems uh you know Cisco kind of fell to the Wayside the companies that made money were the ones that made the internet uh a lot more accessible so they were essentially on-ramps that was a lot things like the travel companies like Priceline and it was Amazon which provided e-commerce and of course down the road it ended up being those who actually created search engines like Yahoo and Google so in an AI world there are going to be many winners and the number winners it's going to change I think for now I would stick with Fang and that's been our recommendation question number three commercial real estate will there be a crisis if so can Banks weather it another great question I think there is going to be a crisis in commercial real estate we already have too many empty Office Buildings especially in many specific cities like San Francisco values have dropped there are risks to loans banks are somewhat better protected because a lot of these loans weren't necessarily done by Banks so they've been done by private Lending value have been lower than past Cycles so it's not like you know in many cases the First Republic talked about this you know their loan to value was something like in the 60s or 40s in some cases that means that if it's 40 loan to value the price of the asset could fall 60 percent before there's a loss to the bank so I think it's two parts I think there is a commercial real estate crisis but I don't think it's as clear that it's a crisis for banks question number four as an extra credit Ai and investing how will AI change how we invest in the future it's going to change how we invest in the future that's no question but I guess the question is is how important is investing to you do you want to earn returns that mirror the market then you'll just invest with an index I don't think that's going to change with AI are you going to invest and try to time the market then yes I think Al will play a role there because AI will make a fewer emotional decisions maybe better than a lot of people will do but will you trust AI with your money more uh uh I don't know I don't think I would it's like getting into a car would you really trust an autonomous driving car or would you get into a car with a guy that has a lot of experience driving a car that you've known for a long time I think that's uh still going to be one of the most important decisions you have to make is how you can sleep at night and we know that a lot of algorithmic type systems even if they're intelligent AI still doesn't eliminate the tail risk that if something goes wrong how are you going to feel you know for us investing in a lot of things in our lives are about trust and really building trust with the community and doing things for the benefit of uh our stakeholders and clients and as you know that's really the reason we exist and I appreciate you guys being our FS Insight family members so hopefully these answer your questions and uh have a great day