저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 인도 화폐개혁(디모네타이제이션)은 단기 충격 후 2017년 내 회복되며, 금리 인하와 인프라 재정 확대로 중장기 긍정적이라는 전망. 화폐개혁 평가: 부패 척결 목적은 고상하지만 방식이 비효율적. 큰손은 미리 알고 빠져나가고 소상인·서민만 불편. 정부 방식이 아니라 다른 경로가 나았을 것이라는 입장. 성장 영향: 충격은 이번 분기에 그치고 연말쯤 해소될 것. GDP 성장률은 약 0.5%p 하락 예상. 기업 자금이 묶이는 기간은 최소 연말까지. 금리·인플레이션: 인플레이션은 안정적이라 추가 금리 인하 여력이 있다고 봄. 정부가 금리 인하를 원하므로 장기적으로 금리 하락 전망. 특히 시중은행 프라임레이트와 레포금리 간 격차가 과도해 프라임레이트 인하 필요. 미국 연준 금리 인상 영향은 인도 방향성에 큰 영향 없다고 판단. 재정 효과: 회수되지 않는 약 3~5조 루피가 중앙은행 배당으로 이어져 정부 재정 확대 가능. 정부가 인프라 투자를 효과적으로 집행하면 성장에 매우 긍정적. 세수 흑자보다는 자금을 경기에 풀 가능성이 크다고 봄. 은행으로 유입된 자금은 투자 대출 확대 요인. 투자 선호: 은행주가 수익성 측면에서 매력적. IT 섹터는 과하게 하락해 기회 존재. 소비재 관련주도 관심. 최근 상승한 비은행 금융사는 이미 오름세가 지나갔고, 공기업 은행(recapitalization 기대)과 대형 민간은행 쪽을 긍정적으로 봄. 리스크·후속: 이번 분기 소비·투자 위축과 일부 저임금 일자리 감소 가능성. 다음 주제는 2017년 1월 20일 취임 예정인 트럼프 행정부가 글로벌 경제·무역·신흥국에 미칠 영향이며, 이에 따른 인도 주식 전망은 후속 방송에서 다룸.
다듬은 글
Hello and welcome to a very special show given the very special circumstances we are going through. Our guest is Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton. This is the Mark Mobius exclusive. Well uh Mark, thank you very much for joining us at what is a very crucial juncture for India and for emerging markets.
It's almost as if there has been a huge global reset. We've had unexpectedly a Trump victory in the United States changing the balance for equity investors between developed markets and equity markets. And as if that was emerging markets and as if that was not enough, we had this complete bolt from the blue from Prime Minister Modi on November the 8th, the same day as Trump was elected this demonetization.
So we have a lot of questions for you. Well, first up, Mark, demonetization. Uh do you think it is everybody is calling it a near-term pain for long-term gain? Is that your view? Well, I think the purpose is very noble. They want to attack corruption and that's fine. I'm afraid this is not the way to do it.
Uh because the big fish usually know what's coming and they can get away. And as you know, if you look at all the ways that people are getting around this, uh you'll find that it's not going to be that effective at the end of the day. And of course it inconveniences a lot of the the small shopkeepers and other people.
So it's really unfortunate that they took this route. I think it would have been better uh to take another route to attack corruption. But in any case it's done and I think it will have an impact on economic growth maybe half a percent uh less than what you would expect. And uh of course it will tie up businesses for quite a while now at least until the end of the year.
So I think at the end of the day uh it's unfortunate that it happened. My big worry my big worry is is that uh it may hurt Mod's uh election in November. Uh his party may be hurt as a result of that. But let's hope that does not happen because we believe the Modi government's uh efforts at uh reform are very very good.
Well, you're right that it's done. So now we cannot debate uh the wise butth by its very nature this was a policy that could not have been a national debate and then implemented. Uh its value if any was only if it was uh uh uh introduced suddenly with no one in the loop except maybe uh the governor and the prime minister.
But yeah as you say it's done. How many quarters do you think uh growth could take uh a beating? Is it just this quarter? Is it this and next or even longer? it will be this quarter and then by the end of the year it will be over. I believe people will have adjusted by that time. Well, uh there are people who believe that consumption was the only part of uh the Indian story which was playing out well nor investment and that's taken a a hit and it could result in job losses at the lower level till confidence comes back.
So you know how much would you shave off from GDP growth or from earnings growth for that matter? I would say a half a percent is probably uh what we'll see because it's not going to last very long as we just noted uh be one quarter and uh overall it' be about a half a percent. Uh what do you expect would be uh the uh fallout in terms of uh inflation and interest rates?
Well, let us assume out of the 14 trillion rupees that is being changed about 4 trillion doesn't come because it was tax evaded money. uh will that mean a big uh you know crunching of aggregate demand? Are you seeing a big fall in interest rates next year? I'm seeing a fall in interest rates uh mainly because uh the Modi government wants that to happen.
They want lower interest rates and I believe the inflation picture is not that dire. Inflation is pretty steady. Uh and I think they could afford another interest rate cut. So we're seeing that longer term despite what's happening in the US. Now, of course, in the US, we are seeing better growth, higher interest rates of the Fed, but I don't think that's going to have a big impact on the uh direction of where India is going in terms of both inflation and interest rates.
Actually, that would be a counter for India. You have to also take into account what the Fed might do. If you're penciling only one interest rate cut, uh you don't see a very big consumption. I mean the expectation was that it would be a interest rate cut led consumption improvement next year. You're not buying that?
No, I'm buying that. I think there's going to be improvement uh next year. Uh better consumption, lower interest rates and of course these two are aligned. The these one will affect the other and I believe that the prime rate has to come down. Uh we're looking of course at the repo rate. uh but uh if you look at the gap between the prime rate and the repo rate, it's much too wide.
The prime rate has to come down. Well uh let me come to the other angle which a lot of people are exploring. Uh as I was saying about 14.5 trillion rupees are going to be changed and it's expected that probably four or three or 5 trillion will not come back. Some people are expecting that that would enable the Reserve Bank to give a large dividend to the government and therefore a big fiscal stimulus could be on its way next year.
One, are you buying that argument? And two, what will be the implication as a stock picker? Uh yes, I am buying that argument and I think it would be very positive going forward for the economy if the government is able to effectively invest in infrastructure and accelerate all the infrastructure projects.
This would be very very good for the economy. As you know this is one of the big barriers that India faces in terms of uh growth to accelerate growth. Mind you growth rates in India are very very good among the highest in the world but they can even go higher with the better infrastructure. Do you expect this move to result in some kind of a fiscal surplus next year as the informal economy gets formalized or for whatever reasons people are too scared now to jump taxes?
I think there could be on on the margin but I don't think this would be a a huge factor because the government will want to get that money out into the economy. So they would want to not have a big surplus and you get that money spent. The other factor here by the way is the influx of money going into the banks means as Mr.
Modi has already mentioned that the banks should be able to accelerate the lending for investment. So that's another factor which we should be aware of. Well, I know we have to discuss another much bigger elephant in the room, the Trump election. But before that, purely because of the demonetization, the expected rate cut, the expected fiscal stimulus, how would you uh change your views as an investor, which kind of stocks would you prefer?
Well, I think we have to look at the banks first of all because of the spread that they're uh having right now becomes very very profitable for the banks and I think the IT sector has been uh hit too hard. The prices have come down uh too much and there's an opportunity there as well and of course at the end of the day any consumer oriented stocks are interesting.
Well, I would obviously want to ask your views on the IT sector even depending on your view on Trump and his impact on uh uh emerging markets. But uh when you say uh banks, the actually the stocks that ran this year were the non-bank finance companies. Uh so bank is really large. There are the public sector banks which could get a recapitalization push if that uh uh extra money is available to the government.
Then there are the private sector banks which largely are out of infrastructure. Then of course there are the non-bank finance companies. Which leg are you now positive on? Well, I would say since these non-bank financial institutions have had their run, now it's time to look at some of the big banks, stateowned banks and the other big private banks.
Uh well u Mark I have to take a break but uh thereafter the real big question that 2017 will grapple with President Trump will be sworn in on January 20th and what will he do to the global economy, global trade, emerging markets and therefore your view on Indian stocks coming back in a minute.
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