저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 인도 증시는 저점에 근접했고 트럼프 당선 후 신흥국 자금은 복귀할 가능성이 크다는 낙관론. [디모네타이제이션 영향 - 부동산] 단기적 고통이지만 장기적으로는 이익. 뭄바이 부동산 가격 조정 폭은 아직 이르다고 평가. 판매는 이뤄지고 있으며 뭄바이는 영향이 가장 적다고 봄. [부동산 기업 - 삼천당이 아닌 Suntech Realty] 완공 프로젝트 비중이 높아 큰 영향 없음. 재고 약 7,000억 루피 중 럭셔리 BKC 관련 약 2,000억 루피가 대부분 완공. 프로모터 지분 73.75%로 확대. [미국 대선 후 자금 흐름] 트럼프 당선 후 신흥시장 이탈 약 6%, 브렉시트 때와 유사. 성장 정책으로 미국 성장 가속 예상, 자금은 다시 해외 투자로 유입될 것. [달러] 트럼프는 강한 달러를 원하지 않을 것이며 달러 지수 102 부근에서 더 오르기 어렵다고 봄. 100 하회 여부는 불확실. [원자재] 미국 인프라 투자로 원자재 수혜는 있으나 중국 소비 규모에 못 미쳐 영향은 제한적. [무역 정책] 다자간 협정보다 양자 협상 강조. 인도 등 특수 요구가 있는 국가에 유리할 수 있음. [IT 섹터] 인도 IT가 많이 하락해 매수 기회. 트럼프 정책의 영향은 제조업 수출 기업에 더 클 것. [중국] 여전히 아시아 성장의 핵심 동력. 위안화 약세로 인한 자본 유출은 정점 단계로 추정. [인도 증시] 약 12% 조정 후 저점 근접, 회복 가능성 제시. 미국 증시 강세가 신흥국에도 상관관계를 가질 것. [투자 전략] 대형주보다 중소형 소비재, 특수 제조, 제약 등 소외된 기업 주목. 은행주(SBI, 펀자브내셔널)는 재정·통화 부양 수혜로 긍정적. 소비금융은 과열 우려로 선호하지 않음. 온라인 소비 성장 관련 기업도 관심.
다듬은 글
you know the last 10 days 15 days or show or so has definitely been demonetization and it's been taking a toll on consumer stocks among the worst hit is real estate our real estate company is tackling this difficult situation we have with us Mr Kamal Kon the chairman and managing director of suntech reality hi Mr Gan thanks so much sir for joining in um first things first you know there's so much of talk about prices correcting Etc but I want to ask you in the last couple of weeks has there been any impact on you know on your functioning is cement company cement coming to your unit is steel coming to your unit are Transporters uh you know being able to function so good afternoon Nigel and Rema and viewers uh see this is a shortterm pain and long-term gain definitely the concerns uh there are concerns but more of the noise I believe so so uh if you talk about the transport and materials coming in the systems for the construction I don't see we have not seen any problems of those kind in the system right now okay mran could you elaborate more on the shortterm pain uh for primary sales what could be the expected cut in real estate prices in Mumbai the region where you operate for secondary sales what would be your estimate of any correction in uh prices and will there be a delay in launches by the company so when we talk about um launch uh price Corrections I feel it is too early to mention it's just 15 days and the as far as suntech is concerned what we are today operating in last 15 days maybe it's too early to comment on it but there are sales which are happening it's not that the sales are not happening and believe that Mumbai market and the organized player should be the least affected Market uh if you see overall uh to uh so that and S is operating mainly in the micro Market Mumbai market where we see the least pain and the organized players in the long term will definitely benefit out of it all right Mr ketan you're sounding quite confident so in the month of November you're saying has have any sales happened if yes where it is has it happened at your premium you know the bkc pro project which is I think in the range of what 25 to around 4050 crores or is it in your Gorga project which is a much smaller ticket size so uh I will not be able to give you EX numbers Nel because of the we are very close to the announcing the results but definitely I can tell you that we have done quite positive sales uh as far as in santech city or or any other projects and where where it comes to bkc projects uh in 15 days last 15 days we have done one sales and that is I think quite good looking at the number because that is a luxury project we don't look at too much of numbers happening in 15 to 20 days so one sale in your luxury bkc project right in the last 15 days that's quite good I believe okay and you don't expect you will have to drop rates in any of your projects so micro Market if you see like bkc very frankly where there is a more of a demand and the less of a supply and looking at the uh PE when where especially the suntech bkc projects are almost completed so demand in the luxury segment where the projects are completed it's by the mainly by the end user where we see that it will not it people might wait wait and watch for some time but it will not dry up like it will not go away so maybe some sales might get delayed by 15 days one month people would like to wait and watch but I don't think the sales prices and sales will totally hamper all right Mr Gan you know the street wants to know what is your total unsold finished inventory the inventory that's already finished and secondly I also want to know you were launching a project in BC that's a commercial project do you expect that to roll out as per plan I think Sonia tells us it's supposed to be rolled out in the third quarter as plan so so in uh so completed an ongoing projects put together Nigel if you see we have an inventory of 7,000 CR again uh out of the 7,000 CR if you talk about again once again everybody's concerned about the luxury segment where we have inventory of close to 2,000 CR uh which is just 27 28% of the 7,000 CR inventory so even if there is a concern what everybody's feeling uh which we are not much concern because we feel our projects are fully almost completed so it will it will not much affect that much the 2,000 CR sir you're saying is completed so 2,000 CR is almost completed yes 2,000 CR is almost completed 2,000 CR inventory is completed including bkc and other project so in bkc out of the three projects two projects are completed which is close to, 1,500 CR inventory and and the other other one project signia PE which is not completed which is ongoing project and all put together completed an ongoing project there is an inventory of 7,000 CR so out of which 2,000 CR if you have uh uh is only bkc so 5,000 CR of inventory and we are looking at the interest rate the way or if you see that there is an increase in bond prices and decrease in yield already banks have already started to drop the interest rate on the deposit and this will eventually we will see the home loan rates com down so have the so just you know we get that point but we're running out of time uh we understand the promoters have been buying in the open market close to about one and a half lakh shares recently yeah so we we continue to we we we we have bought uh the stake which is there in the public domain we have increased our stake to 73.7 5% that that shows that we continue to believe in the growth story of the company and we are very confident about it and one more question if what Nigel had asked me that we were looking at any launch at bkc Junction so definitely uh we have as you see that uh commercial demand even in this market is not gone down which we feel and that continuously going up even in this market it's not got affected so we are looking at launching already what whatever pre- inquiries what we have we are pretty confident we'll be launching in next 15 days to one month and we're confident of selling it in a short span of time Mr Kevan thank you so much for joining us on the show so not too perturbed santech realy let's slip into a very short break but on mov is clearly the veteran Emerging Market investor and of course a veteran on India as well Mark we didn't discuss Trump so far let's start over there at the moment we are seeing a lot of money being pulled out of the em or okay not a lot of money some money being pulled out of EMS do you think that this is going to accelerate as uh uh president-elect Trump takes over and becomes president Trump I don't think it's going to accelerate uh we've come down roughly about 6% in terms of money uh drawn out from Emerging Markets very similar to what happened around the brexit time if you remember that that was a time of uncertainty uh I think that money is going to be coming back for a number of reasons but first of all Trump stands for growth growth of the US economy so we expect uh growth in the US to accelerate and secondly I don't believe that the US dollar is going to remain strong for very long I think Trump's interest will be to have a weaker dollar so that us Industries can export more so this is another area we have to watch very carefully even though interest rates in America will rise uh this is a situation which will be very interesting for the world because with a growing US economy there'll be a lot more money to be invested overseas including Emerging Markets uh well uh I know you wouldn't be wanting to take a bet on the point of the currency but we've seen the dollar in a oneway street it's now a 14-year high if I only looked at the dollar Index at close to 102 uh you think that it is speaking out and that 2017 actually will see the dollar below 100 I think so I don't know about below 100 but I don't think it's going to go very much higher than we have now simply because Trump does not want that to happen he will want a dollar that's competitive and of course all the talk about uh uh countries manipulating their currencies is coming to the for in this Administration and there'll be a very very close look at where the dollar stands in relation to other countries well actually U you know like you pointed out Trump is seen as the president for growth and the narrative appear to be that he's going to invest in infrastructure will that therefore change your pecking order in Emerging Markets will it be more Pro commodity producing Emerging Markets uh there's no question that Commodities will be helped by the big infrastructure spending in the US but not by that much because if you look at the totality of uh consumption of Commodities globally China still is the king they are the biggest consumer the US can increase but will not have a very big big impact the way that China's had in the last 10 years well I'm coming to China in a minute but just let me finish the Trump argument you know very recently in the past few uh hours and days uh president-elect Trump has made uh statements about stricter immigration rules uh and H1B visas on which the Indian ID sector depends so much uh you know but it's been a double w sword there are some people who think that bfsi the banking sector actually globally will do well under Trump because of his Pro growth policies and therefore it could do well are you an IT buyer at this juncture do you think Indian it has is at attractive levels yeah I think the it sector in India has been beaten down quite a lot and provides an opportunity to buy uh I think Trump policies will not have a big impact on the it sector like manufacturing exporters from India and other parts of world might have and by the way the whole trade policy is up for grabs one of the interesting aspects of the Trump Administration is that there will be a lot more emphasis on bargaining at the individual country level uh it will be a de-emphasis of multilateral agreements and an emphasis on bilateral agreements which can be very good for countries like India and others who have special needs special requirements they can sit down with the Trump Administration and and reach agreement on a number of issues and that would include it and other areas well let me come to the other if you police elephant in the room China uh are you looking at uh China to destabilize World economy anytime in 2017 uh like we saw in Jan of 2016 or will China be a growth factor what's the China impact on emerging markets and on global markets well as you know China continues to grow at a very high rate for an economy of that size uh if you take a number whether it be five six or 7% there's a lot of debate as you know about the actual growth rate but even at those levels uh lower levels than they were in 2010 for example the amount of dollars being spent in the China economy is much greater than it was in 2010 and in previous years so China will still become and will continue to be a growth factor for a Asia in particular and other countries around the world as you know China is putting a lot of money outside uh there's been a rush to get rid of R&B as you know U the R&B has been getting weaker against the US dollar and uh Chinese investors are putting their money overseas converting them into assets and converting them into US dollars and other currencies so I think that will continue for a while uh but it's probably uh peaking at this stage okay well actually um let's put all this together for the Indian investor Community U Mark in the first place we've lost what 12% from the highs that we had touched nearly 9,000 levels we now sitting sub 8,000 uh do you think the Indian markets can go down further on a mix of trump and demonetization and War review I don't think so I think uh We've more or less reached the bottom and we probably see recovery in the Indian market you must remember the US market is now surging ahead and the US market leads other markets and we believe there's some correlation between what happens in the US and other countries with more and more money being made in the US market of course fund managers and other investors will want to balance their portfolio uh with Emerging Markets uh Investments including India so Mark uh what will you add to in India given uh the scenario you have painted for us in terms of fiscal stimulus uh interest rate Cuts Trump's uh uh policies and Chinese growth numbers which are the additional sectors that we that you will incrementally add to in India well what we are particularly focused on and very interested in is the smaller area smaller company area small and mediumsized industries that are in the consumer area in specialized Manufacturing in Pharmaceuticals in many of these other Industries which have been pretty much overlooked and now is the time to start looking at those because very exciting things are happening in these companies okay so it's going to be a bottomup uh story for you uh you earlier in the conversation mentioned Banks uh would you get into you know incrementally on a State Bank of India or a Punjab National Bank among the macros probably because uh you know they benefit from fiscal land monetary stimulus exactly the money pouring into these Banks and the spread that they're enjoying uh should be very beneficial for their profitability uh so yeah I would we look at those Banks and others uh in the Indian economy uh well what about the consumption stories uh we did have uh you know the likes of Asian pains the uh or an HDFC bank that Services consumption or a bunch of nbfcs like Bajaj Finance which serve consumption how do do you play the consumption theme would they be consumer companies would they be consumer finances what do you like in that space uh well I think consumer finances have maybe gone a little bit too far at this stage of the game so I would prefer to go to the medium and smaller consumer plays companies that are producing products that people want and will be buying at the supermarkets and other retail outlets and of course we must not Overlook the online surge that's taking place in in India and globally and many of these online sellers will be very interesting going forward of course there'll be many failures but uh if we can pick the winners it will be very very profitable
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