저자: Paulie · 외국인
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엔비디아 시가총액(약 6850억 달러)이 버크셔 해서웨이와 비슷하지만 5년 평균 잉여현금흐름은 약 40억 달러로 버크셔(240억 달러)의 1/6 수준이라 과대평가라는 주장. 스톡 애널라이저 DCF 모델로 저/중/고 시나리오를 계산해 현재가(약 276달러)가 과도하다고 분석. 영상 내 가격 밴드는 저 37달러·중 60달러·고 93달러로 제시. 엔비디아 주가 급등과 높은 PER(133배, 5년 기준) 강조. 다만 수익성·ROIC 등 긍정적 지표도 언급.
다듬은 글
look at their five-year free cash flow that's what you need to do as an investor awesome could not complain about that almost three times more that's incredible it's just these these metrics that drive me nuts Nvidia stock has been on a tear this year let's just look at it year to date let's pull it up and in our software you'd have dated up 92.7 it is almost doubled year-to-date if that doesn't automatically ring problems for you I would question that now Nvidia if you look right here in the last five years is the average 4.9 billion dollars in free cash flow okay pay a small dividend decent very high return on invested Capital I'm not going to look at earnings right now because what I want to do is make a comparison now remember guys this company 28 times price to sales ratio that means for every dollar in Revenue somebody's willing to pay 28 times that and their profit margin is 16 uh five year average is 27 and the chip industry is having a little bit of a lull right now revenue is down a lot but the reason I bring this up is this company's market cap is 685 billion dollars there's another company by the name of Berkshire Hathaway owned by Warren Buffett that is less market cap 678 billion now look at their five-year free cash flow 24 billion versus 4 billion now you might look at the net income saying but Paulie lost money not no they didn't lose money the way the IRS and SCC handles things is when their stock prices when they're stocks that they own go down in value they have to Market as net income loss in the last five years their PE is 16 including that loss but let's focus on their cash flow because that doesn't get modified their five-year average free cash flow is 24 billion dollars guys Nvidia is 4 billion and they're the same price company and the difference is Berkshire Hathaway has over 80 fully owned businesses under their umbrella not even including their stock portfolio wholly owned businesses under their umbrella I don't understand how people look at this and this is what I sit there and say when you're comparing companies when you're going out and buying a car if you can buy a Cadillac for 50 000 and your idiot neighbor has a Ferrari who's willing to sell it to you a brand new Ferrari for 50 000 bucks would you sit there and say I'll see the Cadillac no you'd sit there and say I'll take the Ferrari and that's what I look at with Berkshire versus Nvidia why would I pay 685 billion for 4 billion in cash flow when I can pay a little bit less to get six times more cash flow and I'm not saying Berkshire is a buy I'm just saying that's what you need to do as an investor you need to be able to keep things away from the story now if Nvidia could grow its cash flow for at really really high rates for a very long time that justify the value great but I say really high rates my guess is they have to grow at 30 40 percent above berkshire's growth rate and that's going to be very difficult to do I haven't done the math on it but those are the stories you have to be able to tell in order to justify the price of a company today versus this and look at Nvidia their fluctuations in Revenue are way higher than Berkshire berkshire's got 80 90 holy open businesses they got stock portfolio they got insurance businesses that spit off cash that allow them to invest at higher rates of return on basically free borrowed money Nvidia makes chips and they make one wonderful chips and game on awesome could not complain about that however this should be a lesson to you and I'm hoping it's like wait a second I didn't realize that because when people buy stock they look at the stock price not what they're buying the market cap that market cap is buying all the shares outstanding so if you're paying 685 billion for NVIDIA and 678 billion for Berkshire but yet you're getting this versus one one-fifth of this why would you even be considering Nvidia Nvidia is very very very overpriced but let's do the math with our stock analyzer tool to determine the price of Nvidia and what we should pay for it now guys the hard part about Nvidia is like I said the revenue is down significantly why well guys the chip industry went through a boom last year look at this Revenue job like pretty much almost every chip maker has seen this 29 billion out of 22.
it's okay they can still make money if they have and they can still grow and still be worth something it's a temporary Lull in the business just like when Southwest went through covid the revenue fell by 90 or whatever 95 percent doesn't mean Southwest is going away they had to rebuild that and now they have higher Revenue than they did before covid so the same thing applies to Nvidia let's look what analysts are saying about Nvidia anal is just saying that nvidia's profit could go from 333 a share this year to 855 in five years that's a big that's almost three times more not quite but almost three times more that's incredible okay what about Berkshire probably not the same so let's go pull that up first times hope you have a much slower growth rate according to analysts oh wow can't really look at that right now because there's not many analysts following Berkshire don't know why that is but they have a they have about the same a little bit higher so it's not much in terms of growth rate so yeah that's a positive for NVIDIA but again you're starting out with six times more five-year average free cash flow with Berkshire than Nvidia is NVIDIA a much more exciting company to some you know what's more exciting to me paying less money for more cash flow that's way more exciting to me so again let's go back to Nvidia and let's look at their their expected over double Revenue in the next five or six years so let's look at the let's look at the eight pillars here real quick 133 times five-year earnings 140 times 5-year free cash flow guys it's very difficult to justify these for such a large company if this is a small company that did a billion in Revenue I'd say okay if they can grow a lot Thirty forty percent a year for 10 15 years this company ain't growing 30 40 a year for 10 15 years it's just not going to happen if you look at the analyst estimates they're looking at yeah about 10 or 15 for the next five or six years okay Now High return on invested Capital love this this means that every dollar they reinvest in the business they can really spit out a lot of profit there this is awesome this is a great metric this isn't so bad shares outstanding up 3.8 percent I don't blame them the Stock's overpriced sellout shares to get your money don't take on debt I don't blame them for this everything else looks great low debt cash flow growth Revenue growth net income growth it's just these two metrics that drive me nuts and guys it's very very possible and actually very likely that that people in the markets will overpay for a good story it builds on itself that's how a stock goes up 100 in three months 93 that Nvidia stock is up in three months that's CR in fact I think the loafer in video was a hundred and hundred eight dollars just six seven months ago 108 bucks now it's at 276.
so what's Nvidia stock worth well guys this is the stock analyzer tool it's been used over 1.3 million times by our users in our community in the last year it is awesome what it does it allows you to make assumptions about the future and I'm gonna make a low middle and high assumption and I'm gonna do a 20-year analysis on Nvidia because I think a video will be around for a very very long period of time and it's a great company to own the question becomes at what price is it a great company to own that's the thing that a lot of people Miss that's why the fact you've made it this far in this video shows how smart you are you realize it's possible to overpay for a good thing there's a good price for everything Nvidia to Dollar all day long a video at 10 Nvidia ten thousand dollars a share avoiding like the plague the exact same company so somewhere in the middle there's a good price to pay for the company but the thing is we don't know the future so allow me to really quickly put in my assumptions explain them and they'll spit out based on my assumptions what the stock I should be paying for the stock today to get the return I desired so please hang on for one second all right guys so these are my assumptions and they're very wide assumptions because the longer we go out these differences and assumptions make big differences overall right it's just like a shotgun you start a shotgun from here as it goes out further and further it comes wider and wider same thing with valuation I'm going out 20 years so there's going to be very wide ranges but I'm also making these very wide ranges look at Revenue growth I assumed four percent the low side 12 in the high side per year now just to give you an idea of what 12 means 12 for 20 years takes their revenue to 212 billion dollars from 20 two billion okay that's pretty substantial it's three times larger than Intel today so it's not egregious now if you don't agree with me you know what let's go a little bit higher let's go four nine and thirteen okay we're gonna go a little bit higher probably takes you to let's see what that takes you to on Revenue assumptions 20 years from now 11 times growth 250 billion dollars in Revenue okay now profit margin this last year was a lower profit margin 16.8 percent but in the last five and ten years much higher so I did 20 24 and let's say they crushed it and do 28 for the next 20 years okay oops a video just came out exclusive video free cash flow I did the exact same thing because over a long periods of time earnings and free cash flows should be pretty similar and if you look right here at their history they're very similar so I'm okay doing 20 24 and 28.
now PE if you're like that idiot meet Kevin who thinks that PE of 160 means a discount 70. just turn the video off right now I can't teach you anything guys history dictates for 678 685 billion dollar company the market average of 15 or 16p e will will base now should you pay higher yes they have a high return on invested Capital it means High moat and they can really keep their profit up very easily with less money invested so that's why I put my minimum at 15 and my high at 18 and 16 and a half p e in the middle now that might sound confusing to you I understand completely it takes some iterations this is why you sign up for the community it's a dollar a day seven dollars for seven days is a special running right now and this and the price is going up very soon we're going to end up being at forty dollars a month over a dollar Thirty a day very shortly so sign up now so you lock in that rate now desired return is our last metric guys I already beat up the company pretty nicely here so I'm putting nine percent return in I'm like okay listen if I could buy Nvidia and they screw up which I think this is a screw-up and I still make nine percent that's awesome but as I get my assumptions higher I need a bigger threshold I did nine eleven and a half and fourteen because I do believe this should about be what happens with the company okay okay they can grow their revenue of all these things eleven and a half percent and fourteen percent I hit the analyze button six numbers are going to pop up a low middle and high for earnings and a low middle and high for free cash flow this is going to show you how Nvidia is so massively overpriced low price of 37 high price of 93 middle price of 60.
guys I want to show you one thing before you go what has to be the growth rate for NVIDIA to justify today's price I'm at 20 growth rate per year and it's still not there and 20 growth rate would take them to 843 billion dollars in Revenue guys thank you for watching the video hopefully you see that the story from video has to be really different than what's been happening in history for this to justify today's price thank you for your time
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