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진행자는 메타, 니오, 구글, 애플, 팔란티어 5개 종목을 소개하며 8가지 기준(Eight Pillars)과 Stock Analyzer 시나리오로 적정가를 추정한다. 메타는 사용자 30억명 규모, 잉여현금흐름 강세를 근거로 매수 관심(관심가 175달러). 니오는 성장성은 있으나 추정치가 불확실해 관망. 구글은 검색 독점력과 현금창출력을 근거로 80달러 부근 매수 관심. 애플은 자사주 매입과 구독 사업 전환을 근거로 관심가 130달러. 팔란티어는 회계 이슈로 투자 의견을 철회하고 관망.
다듬은 글
this company just friends and Prince and Prince cash what the heck are you putting in there I am not too concerned about them pay me through this pay me through this and if this Market Falls it's going to fall with it five stocks that the everything money community and YouTube Finance Community are looking at right now we're going to go through them we're going to put a price on them let's do it so the first one is meta this is of course a stock that I like very much I own a few shares of it but the majority of it I did get rid of right before that big earnings thing spiked up now I'm approaching it in a very different perspective but it's still a company that I do want to own for quite some time so let's look at the eight pillars of this thing a couple of good things bad things about meta number one over three billion people use the meta platform in some fashion that being Facebook Instagram WhatsApp I use all three of them well I use Facebook the least but Instagram and WhatsApp I use every day I actually have WhatsApp open right now I'm looking at it so that's something that you cannot take away from them there are so many parts of the underdeveloped world that when they get access to computers when they get access to Internet what are they going to do they want to connect with people they want to connect with people all over the world they're going to be downloading Facebook so that's something great something else the eight pillars light up they absolutely light up the revenue growth is still there the cash flow growth is still there they are investing heavily in the metaverse and some people look at this as a negative I don't I look at this saying their free cash flow over the last five years 23.67 billion 19 billion last year I mean they can afford to spend 10 billion dollars a year on this and if they if it fails let's say they spend let's say they spend 50 billion dollars on this and it completely fails which I don't think is going to be the case but let's say it does well that 10 billion dollars goes right back in and they move on business as usual I'm not worried about that you can see that the eight pillars are completely lit up my eight pillars are completely lit up and guys you can come in here through tools pillar screener create your own eight pillars whatever you want to do you notice my five-year roic is greater than 12 16.35 with them which is incredible the only thing it doesn't hit is they don't pay a dividend and for me that is perfectly fine let's go through and just quickly look at what the analysts have to say about this they see some uh earnings per share growth is there it's back and forth over the next couple of years and I think that has a lot to do with spending in the metaverse revenue growth however is certainly there so let's run a stock analyzer on this thing real quick for stock analyzer guys I'm going to put in three different cases so I'm going to go with a base case of let's say six percent Revenue growth nine and twelve let's say that 12 percent they hit metaverse hits they just absolutely crush it profit margin let's go 25 28 31 free cash flow margin I'm gonna do the same thing because with such a big mature company they should match up over a long period of time I'm going to go with 16 17 and 18 here that higher roic does justify those numbers I think 10 I will go 12 and 14.
let's see what I have this at so you can see it's on my watch list at 175 that's kind of where I want to start paying attention to it again I do think it's going to fall back to those levels but all day right now 211 to 329 Middle Ground of 266 this is why meta is on my radar and this is why you can make a very strong argument that it is falling in value territory even at this price so number one is meta guys I just ran through stock analyzer you can have access to this and this may seem overwhelming right now you might say what the heck are you putting in there we have a community with thousands of people that talk people use this over a million times last year in 2022.
I use this multiple times per day not just for videos but for my own stocks and I'll take a screenshot and I'll send it over you also notice that it's on watchlist so once Facebook sorry meta hits 175 dollars I'm gonna get a text message I'm gonna get an email I'm gonna get a notification on my cell phone everything that you need to know about meta is right here on this phone in the app seven dollars for seven days right now 29 a month it's going to be going up so join in okay next stock Neo new is an interesting one Neo is the Chinese car company I think that if they could put together some type of infrastructure for charging that is that the same size capability as Tesla right now they are going to do very well they have had incredible growth of cars they have had incredible amounts of deliveries they are one of the leaders over there in that market so it's something that is probably a little bit too early for me to jump into but it's something that is going to stay on my radar and uh going forward so eight pillars it's hard to look at this and say hey this is but remember though just because I'm seeing a lot of red X's here doesn't mean that you don't invest in it this is a screening process there could be a reason for each and one of these not being lit up in green so p e ratio not surprising there is no net income growth Revenue growth however is there also not surprising they are diluting the heck out of you I don't like that as somebody that's wanting to buy this company now roic that it's a big number I'm not sure what's going on with that I wouldn't pay much attention to that debt can't calculate it free cash flow not there so as you can see it is super early and I bet you before I click the analyst page I bet you there's not a lot of analysts going out to 2026 27 28 and that would be correct so you have 32 analysts and it drops down to 12 in 2025 and four in 2026.
what does that mean it means that nobody can nobody wants to put their neck on the line for this one because it's so unpredictable that's not a bad thing just let the company mature a little bit I'm gonna do a stock analyzer on this and let's see what we can do I'm glad that we did this one because it's so vastly different from meta the first stock that we did so stock analyzer I'm gonna put in here I'm gonna go 13 you know you know what I'm gonna you know what I'm gonna do I'm gonna do 10 20 and 30.
I'm going to run the gamut on this thing let's say they crush it and go 30 Revenue growth for the next decade but I think 20 is more in the reasonable range 10 I don't know it's hard to do profit margin guys I will go with 10 15 and 20 you notice I have no I mean these are pure guesses what I'm putting in here and that's the problem with an investment like this it seems really cool it seems really attractive because it's so hip and it has this great potential but right now this is all speculation 12 14 and 16 and you could even make the argument to go a little bit higher just because we don't know a lot of numbers it's not even on my watch list yet but based on my wild speculation here yes it falls into a range of ten dollars to eighty dollars but again this is wild wild speculation I don't know if they're gonna do 10 or 30 percent I don't know if this profit margin is correct they could be doing four percent or forty percent profit margin I have no idea that's the problem with Neo right now but it's something that we can look at all right next one Google well Google owns the search engine World on the internet there's two platforms one's called Google one's called YouTube and you're watching this on YouTube right now those are the two largest platforms for search in the world on the internet so I am not too concerned about them being overtaken especially by Bing and chat GPT and this and that it's just I'm not really worried about it what I am worried about is paying the right price for them to get a great return over a long period of time this thing was most recently in the low 9 90s I think it was around 90 a share that was just 10 days ago now it's at 103.
so you can see that all of this financial news people diving into tech stocks for safety is boosting up their stock price all right eight pillars so this is the eight pillars that I love to see I love seeing these two valuation metrics just a little bit high and I bet you that you can make justification to pay that PE for both of them but great return on invested Capital amazing return on invested Capital free cash flow is absolutely incredible of 60 billion dollars this year the five-year average is about 45 billion dollars so this company just prints and prints and prints cash all right let's see what the analysts have to say and again even with this one you know what let's just come here real quick on the income statement okay you see how this had this insane rise this went from 180 billion in 2020 to 280 billion in 2022.
that is a massive massive massive jump I don't think that's sustainable and that's probably why you're seeing analysts that are not going out very far you go from 49 analysts on Google every analyst should be talking about Google and they drop down to 11 and 9 in 2026 in 2027 respectively so man 309 billion in Revenue to 400 170 billion High single digit growth on the earnings side you have better growth uh going from 5.24 cents to 9.73 that's because of that return on invested Capital that you're seeing that number much higher so let's run this through stock analyzer let's see what we want to pay for Google I'm going to go I'm gonna go very low I'm gonna go five seven and nine percent profit margin seems extremely consistent around 20 22 24 I think it's going to fall somewhere in there especially as the ad business gets bigger than it already is your profit margins are going to get bigger PE I'm gonna go with 17 18 and 19 and desired return I will go 10 11 and 12 because I don't think any of those numbers I already put some pretty low numbers in here I don't need to generate a much bigger return than that okay let's see here eighty dollars to a hundred and twenty dollars with a middle ground of a hundred and I told you I bet you can justify this number for me it's probably closer to 80 around 85 that's probably my Buy number personally but Google is getting really close to the Wheelhouse and for those of you that did not think that Google could fall from all of its Glory well look at this all-time high 151.55 February 2nd 2022 and people were saying there's no way Google can go to 100.
well it went to 83.34 and if this Market Falls it's going to fall with it all right next one one of my favorite companies Apple which is almost 160 a share which is absolutely incredible because just a few weeks ago January 3rd 2023 this was 126.36 amazing now apple is arguably one of the best companies in the whole world great product great ecosystem great brand loyalty you have the same metrics that you saw with Google I say over it's not really overvaluation over our numbers I bet you can justify paying these I bet there's some way that you can get to justify paying these or maybe just a little bit lower but the thing that sticks out to me most here buying back shares don't know if I like it and they might have a program where they just do it every single year I can't remember but we'll check it out roic though 38 I'll take that all day that's a company that can reinvest in themselves and generate 38 return on the com on the money that they invest in themselves that's less work that I need to do as an investor and they're buying back shares they're paying a very very small dividend I'm happy about that I don't need to be paid a dividend yet keep investing that into yourself don't pay me through dividend pay me through this pay me through this now their cash flow five-year average free cash flow of 81 billion dollars of trailing 12 month is nearly a hundred billion dollars that's a lot of cash all right let's see what analysts say about Apple Man earnings per share growth six dollars and nine cents to eight dollars and 84 cents it's over over 10 percent and again even even with this guys let's go to the income statement I just want to look at this real quick not as big of a jump that we saw with uh Google but it's it's consistent growth but is this sustainable is this 387 billion dollars sustainable or is it going to come back to 3 60 maybe 355 350 340 something like that is it sustainable that's the question you need to ask yourself and I think that that's why you're seeing so few analysts going out further than 2025 because of the unknown so looking at it I mean High single digit mid single digit growth now here's something that I think needs to be said with apple they are transitioning they're not really the innovators that they once were they're more transitioning into becoming a software business a subscription business plus they are don't get me wrong they're still selling Hardware they're still selling selling computers they're still selling iPhones iPads Etc I think they're going more to the software business which is going to generate bigger margins and they have all that cash there's something that they can do with all that cash I'm not going to say it right now maybe you can figure it out or you've heard me on the morning show but let's get into some numbers with apple Revenue growth side oh boy let's see what we should do with apple let's go 6 9 and 12.
and I know 12 sounds big but if they turn turn this thing into a subscription business they can really Drive Revenue in a new way plus still selling all of these things it can be incredible all right profit margin let's go with 22 24 and 26 again 26 is really high because software PE Let's go with 17 18 and 19 iroic I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt on these and 10 11 and 12.
actually you know what I'm gonna go 10 12 and 14 because those numbers on the high side are pretty big and if I take that risk I want to get a good return 130 is my watch list price 106 to 100 and call it 160 Middle Ground 130 I actually think I'm going to move this up to 140 why because I want to buy this thing at 130 therefore I could sell puts at 140.
if you're interested in selling puts or what that means come and join the software oracle's a VM 17 for seven days it's a trial so you'll get teachings from me you'll get my options series which will walk you through everything you you know about what I just said about options and you get the community you get all of the people that are doing the same thing as you people that want to buy Apple at these prices you can discuss it with them Pros cons sign up for the software today you're gonna love it I promise you palantir last one this is a company that I was interested in buying and now I'm not I had puts on this thing at four dollars and this was back when the stock price was around five dollars and I was looking at getting assigned these shares then something came up in the way that they account shared by one of our em users who's very very active in the chat if you're interested in talking to him but that kind of spooked me so it was already a very new investment I wasn't putting a ton of money into it but it was a it was enough to make me step back and say you know what I want to see a couple more quarters of data because I want to see what the heck is going on here is this a common practice of palantir now the good thing is is they've had nine consecutive quarters of free cash flow that was great but it was the accounting thing it threw me off you notice it this is an early on investment this is one of those ones where I'm not gonna lie I was getting into this with the mindset of okay let's see if we have a hundred bagger here it is such a new company it is such a small company it has great ties into the commercial World it has great ties into the government world this was a company that I could see growing and growing and growing I also love Peter Thiel however you say his name so it was on my radar heavily now it's not let's see what the analysts have to say I'm sure there's not many here yes it goes from 18 to three they look to double in Revenue I mean the revenue growth is there the earnings per share growth it's nothing substantial but I think there's a lot of unknown out there about this thing so let's run through uh stock analyzer real quick and put in some numbers they're seeing let's see 20 plus percent Revenue growth so let's go 15 20 and 25.
profit margin it's hard to do profit margin but again I was looking at free cash flow and I was saying okay I'm not so worried about profit margin profit margin will get there they are generating free cash flow that was my excitement was coming from that's where Paul's excitement was coming from as well so profit margin let's go 15 20 and 25 as well free cash flow margin let's say man this is it's a very speculative play that's the thing 20 and 25 I'm going to do the same thing PE Let's go with 18 19 and 20.
I think the return on invested Capital will be there it's just a matter of one 12 14 and 16 return my watch list is 450. I'll probably start looking back again at that point because that stock price needs to fall in half it's eight dollars and fifty cents and right now low end 4.79 high-end 13 14 middle ground 8.23 this is where I'm paying most attention to it and notice if this happens I'm generating a 12 return plus I can do options on top of that guys subscribe to the channel if you like this have a great day foreign
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