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엔비디아는 기업으로는 좋지만 주가는 비싸다는 주장. 시가총액 5,650억 달러, PER 135배, 과거 ROIC 하락과 이익 감소를 근거로 제시. 스톡 애널라이저(10년 가정: 매출성장 6/10/14%, 이익률 20/24/28%, PER 16/17/18배, 요구수익률 10/12.5/15%) 결과 'overvalued'(PER 135배, 저가 40·고가 73·중간 50 제시). 장기 가치 평가 관점이며 단기 가격 방향 발언은 없음.
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that's what I mean by having that right mentality you have been diluted we can love a company but we can hate the stock when you buy a stock you're buying a piece of a business so Nvidia stock is very perplexing to me this is a chip maker they're great they do graphic cards they are awesome at what they do and I pull up in our software Nvidia and I look at the stock and I'm like okay all-time high November 22nd 2021 346.
52-week low 108 and now we're at 228 okay now that in and of itself says nothing so if you're new to the channel I really don't care where the stock price is in the sense of I don't look at a stock and say oh because it's 228 versus 40 it makes it a better buy it makes it a good buy at 40. makes it a better buy probably but is it a good buy I don't know ready to determine is the value behind those shares that's what's important so I look at Nvidia first thing that I look at market cap 565 billion dollars Enterprise Value 571.
essentially the difference there is their debt that's incredible very little debt I love that so that's that's a big positive for NVIDIA boy look at this one year PE and five-year PE 135 and 110. guys you should pay a high PE if you have one of two things high growth rate actually a high return on invested capital is the most important thing and right here they have a high five-year return invested Capital 17.7 but if you look at last year's 8.3 that's pretty indicative of where profit went in the last year and that's the issue we have good margins but look at this profit margin last year in the last year versus five years we have 26.6 percent profit margin over the last five years versus 16.8 percent last year and a gross margin pretty solid now here's something adorable look at this dividend point one percent why why even do that high return on Equity 18.6 there are a lot of positives about Nvidia but remember guys when you buy a stock you are buying a piece of a business and you're buying a future stream of cash flows that's the number one most important thing you need to hear me say over and over and ingrain in your head when you buy a stock you're buying a piece of a business now let's go check out the eight pillars on Nvidia all right so remember if you own the software you can make your own custom pillars you can put up to 12 of them and the number of combinations is in something like literally the trillions of combinations of the pillars you can have these are the ones that I picked and that's why I keep them here I don't have any custom ones because these are the ones I picked so of course the two that stand out very high PE five-year PE of 110 and very high five-year price of free cash flow of 115.
now if I told you that nvidia's revenue and profit we're gonna double every year for the next 10 years I would buy this company today easily but have I told you it was going to stay flat for the next 10 years would you be willing to pay a hundred times revenue and revenue sorry profit and free cash flow in order to get that these are the questions we ask ourselves as investors we can love a company but we can hate the stock why do we hate the stock because the price to value is not there that's the big key and that's what we're here to teach as a channel this is all great and dandy but what do you do this information all this information here the only other X here is shares outstanding are up slightly which I don't blame them I would be issuing shares that my stock price was really high but keep in mind there are a lot of value investors out there that won't even look at a company if they've increased their shares outstanding they want to avoid those that's diluting owners what does that mean if there are 10 shares in a business and you own one you own 10 of the business if they need to raise Capital by issuing shares and they issue two more shares it takes the shares from 10 to 12.
but you still own one share but now you own one out of 12 shares eight point three three percent you have been diluted when they buy back shares you keep your one share but now you own a higher piece of the business but you want to make sure that the company is not buying back expensive shares that's the big key there so let's see what analysts are saying about Nvidia now guys you'll hear me say over and over take these analysts with a grain of salt I don't like really I don't look at analysts like expectations here but a lot of our users in our community love doing that and I put it out there as information for them but if you look as a prime example I just said another video Silicon Valley Bank two weeks to go ahead no analysts giving them a sell rating and they were 250 a share they're zero today essentially their bonds are selling for 30 cents a dollar so again are analysts really out there for what they're trying to do is it herd mentality now analysts are saying that there's going to be growth pretty much every year for the next four or five years that could be the case I know the chip industry the analysts are saying that the 12 component annual growth rate potential for the next 10 years that's a lot let's look at the revenue growth they're looking at Revenue growth every year for the next five or six years so there's a lot of potential over doubling in the next five is it one two three five years over doubling their revenue next five years and couple that with a higher return on invested Capital you can do well so you've heard me talk about return on invested capital and I keep repeating it over and over and for those of you who've seen our videos before the reason you need to keep watching them over and over again is because this is about mentally getting yourself in the right mindset I still read every single day about emotions in the market paying a low price for companies High return on invested Capital low multiple of earnings and free cash flow I clearly understand these things but it's about ingraining it in my head over and over and that's why 15 years ago I would react if a stock went down negatively I'd be like oh my God I'm wrong now I'm excited for it yes my stock that I bought is down I'm gonna buy more shares there's a completely different thing there completely different I just said in a video today if Google fell in half tomorrow I would absolutely sell my soul my fiance's soul and everybody else's soul that I could control to get to get money to buy more Google that's what I mean by having that right mentality so guys what do we pay for Nvidia stock well like I said but what's the thing about the future that we don't know everything now can we make assessments can we make assumptions about the future absolutely and that's why I always say I'm going to copy Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger if you can't reasonably determine what a company is going to make in the next 5 10 20 years avoid it now that assumption could be very wide there's a very wide range of what a company can make over the next 5 10 20 years that's why it's easier and more mature companies and Nvidia being a 500 billion dollar market cap with how much in Revenue in the last 12 months 25 billion that's pretty impressive now guys look at this go look at our past Nvidia videos we would talk about all right this is ample growth Big Time jumps is this sustainable well we already saw right here it dropped for whatever reason chip demand I don't think it was that was more supply chain issues but Revenue fell let's look at profit profit fell actually profit's almost down to the level it was at when they were doing half the revenue less than half the revenue okay these are things to consider when making your assessments about the future and the longer you go out in our stock analyzer tool probably The Wider the range but you can sit there and give more assessment on what the company's going to do without the year-to-year fluctuations now when I do the stock analyzer tool I usually do 20-year analysis you can do 10-year 20 year you can do one year to 20 years I'm gonna do a 10-year analysis here now guys this tool right here was the most popular part of our website 1.3 million uses last year but it's not the only valuable thing look at our tools retirement calculator stock analyzer tool analyst estimates eight pillar search you can search by pillars a pillar portfolio or exclusive content and you can screen by our pillars and then coming soon real estate calculator this is all available for one dollar per day there's we're running a special right now seven dollars for seven days afterwards try it out afterwards if you don't like it just cancel and if you do like it you get charged a dollar a day for the rest of time this will change the the way in which you look at money trust me on that one so let's do our stock analyzer tool on Nvidia for 10 years Revenue growth um let's see here let's go with uh I'm throwing out numbers here and that's the kind of the point here 6 10 and 14 profit margin now profit margins down a lot in the last one year but the five year and tenure numbers are pretty consistently high so I'm gonna go with 20 24 and 28.
I'm gonna do the same thing for free cash flow margin now PE guys don't fall for the Trap of saying oh 135 p e I don't do the meet Kevin stupid idiot thing of saying 70pe is fine that's a discount no over a long period of time a 500 billion dollar company should have a very reasonable PE why their growth potential is not very good it's not like they're going to grow at 30 a year for the next 20 years like a billion dollar company could or whatever it is a 500 million dollar company this is a 500 billion dollar company so I'm gonna put 15 16 and a half and 18.
actually you know what I'm gonna do 16 17 18 because this is a chip leader they do a great job number one graphics card I'm good with that now for desired return guys this is where you put your margin of safety in if you can get nine or ten percent from investing in a long-term ETF to get margin of safety ask for a higher return the more return you ask for the less the price it gives you more margin of safety but I've already beaten it up quite a bit right here so do I really need to go a much higher return than ten percent no some some investors would sit there and say if I beat it up I want eight percent whatever you choose to do that's the great thing about this tool you can use it and determine how you use it to the best of your investing abilities but everybody's going to have different numbers I'm going to go with 10 12 and 14 because the higher I go the less likely is to happen I need a higher return actually you know what I'm gonna do 10 12 and a half and 15.
I usually do 10 12 14 when it's for a 20-year analysis so for a shorter period of time I need I need a little bit more return I'm hit the analyze button now guys the stock is currently at 228 a share you're gonna get six numbers to pop below three values based on multiple earnings three values based on a multiple free free cash flow if it's all green it doesn't mean go out and buy all the more reason join the community take advantage of seven dollars for seven days go talk to other people the thousands of people in this community who've signed up who are talking about stocks and talking about Nvidia in there you can search specifically for NVIDIA so you go here boom guys overpriced and it makes sense 135pe low price of 40 high prices 73 middle price of 50. guys this thing is overvalued that's it thank you very much for your time oh
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