저자: Paul · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어는 45달러에서 5~6달러대로 급락했고, 분기 실적이 1센트 차로 부풀려진 의문스러운 투자 평가익이 있었다. 9분기 연속 잉여현금흐름 흑자와 78.6% 매출총이익률 등 장점도 있다. 진행자는 즉시 매수하지 않고 4~5달러 부근까지 기다리며 추가 조사하겠다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
palantir guys this is a company that we've talked about for a long time when it was forty five dollars and that idiot from wherever he's from on YouTube sat there and promoted it and said it was awesome we said avoid it he made fun of us then it fell 90 not 90 I think it was 85 so it started to get interesting it went from 45 down to like six or seven even when we did 40 when it was at forty five dollars what I always said was I'm interested around five and that was me just throwing out numbers there I was just kind of like listen at five and people thought you're crazy it's not gonna happen how fast did it happen well let's look at the palantir stock price look at this thing right it literally what got to single digits May 10th of 2022 and uh 15 months later because it hit a peak of 45 on January 27th so if you if you're new to the channel or you just recently subscribed and you don't know what we're doing here we look at a lot of individual stocks we have over 2100 videos and I don't know what percentage our individual stocks but my guess is 70 percent yeah it's probably a good number because what we're trying to do is understand businesses and when you buy a stock you're buying a piece of a business and we're trying to look at these companies and determine what price you want to buy them at it's very simple now palantir got our attention what do we love about palantir well what I love one thing is actually it's all-time low is 584 just just two months ago not even two months ago what I love is it's down a lot that's a good place to start when looking for Value what companies have fallen a lot it's got a lot of growth potential it's got very high margin look at this gross margin 78.6 guys Microsoft 68 so this means for every dollar they bring in they add 78.6 cents of that to essentially the bottom line they got to pay taxes from that but if their overhead's the same after attack before taxes that's what they added the bottom line that's huge that huge number absolutely huge when you have a high growth as an example a company like Tesla in the car business is killing it right now and their gross margins 25 and that's really high for a car company unheard of right so this is what we're looking at here with palantir now in full disclosure Mo and I have had a shift on palantir again yes this is our community here we have someone in our community named Dalton real smart kid 25 years old I don't think he's 25 yet he's 24.
he knows way more than I did at 24 about investing he is a very smart kid a good researcher and one day he sends us a message Mo and I a message and he says he does some research for us and things because I'm pretty lazy I don't want to do research he loves it he said guys I don't like what palantir is doing with their with their reporting of income and I was like wait what he said Paul they beat by one penny which is you usually an indication of something weird going on and I'm not going to get the full detail of it but basically what he found was there was an investment they made that didn't appear anywhere in their reports before and suddenly in that quarter and the quarter before there was a vestment made and they marked it up to exactly enough money that allowed them to beat earnings by one penny per share yep there was no reference of it before there was nothing about that it was just a very weird indication now that affects income net income not cash flow and they've had nine quarters in a row of free cash flow it's right here you have it right there yep so that's great and that free cash flow number is still very very wonderful that's what we do guys with our with our with our software we sit here and do the math for you that way it makes it easier but that's a big number right there 73.8 million dollars in free cash flow their average in the last four quarters so they did 105 160 180 call it 180 million dollars in the last year in free cash flow now that's still not a good multiple the company is a 16 billion dollar company correct and they have a lot of cash on hand and very little debt which is a lot of positives however if you go by the Warren Buffett Charlie Munger and Howard marks and all these other Great Value investors they'll say to you when we see management making Shady kind of actions we like to avoid that so I'm right now in the predicament of saying okay how accurate is this like Dalton could be wrong right absolutely he said it and we're sitting there going okay we have to do our own research to determine was this markup in this investment the right thing to do or was it a convenient thing to do right to make things look better than they are to make things look better than they are now the great news is it didn't affect cash flow at all no cash flow is a much harder number to manipulate we're going to say this is a cons this is something that these smaller companies do to make earnings look better well you know they also do when your stock goes from 45 100 down to five you want to make sure that you're pumping that thing up that's what concerns me exactly you're going to do whatever you can to get the daily earnings on the earnings day you want to see that percentage jump 15 yeah and the thing about palantir is this is a very very long-term play they're growing like crazy they have a very high gross margin all the things you love but if Management's willing to do that if it's accurate and I'm not saying it's 100 true but the fact that I even sit there and go wait a second and I love his research he goes Paul this was never mentioned before Suddenly It's mentioned and then it's marked up and there's not a lot of description about it either yes it was very vague it's vague and it's just here it is on to the next and it was like huh what was that and how do you find this I look at the 10K the 10K and guys this is if you're new to this channel this is the kind of stuff that we do we'll screen a stock find out what price you want to pay he said five dollars okay when it gets to five dollars then we open up the 10K then we start digging and saying oh look that's a little weird I'm gonna move on you know it's funny a couple years ago we got in a YouTube battle with somebody who loved tattooed chef and we've seen it since reconciled but he always said do all your research up front find out everything you know and then determine a price we do it the exact option then look at financials we do exact opposite why waste your time exactly I mean it can take an hour to two hours to dig through a 10K why would I do that on a company that I don't want to own do the financials see if it's within the ballpark if it's in the ballpark go do your research if it's not mark it as okay I need to wait for it to hit this level and you'll see us when we do our stock analyzer tool to determine the price of the stock if it comes up all right I'll say add it to your watch list right here at the top and our software will send you a text an email a notification all to tell you the stock hit now go do your research why go spend your time there are too many companies out there that could be selling for a good price don't go waste your time what did Warren and Charlie say they can they can look at it and they can make a decision on a company if they're going to dig deeper within 15 seconds probably by the way I could we can't do numbers real quick on to the next and that's exactly it we can too absolutely we can look at something and say within 30 seconds I don't want to look at this let me give a story here it has to do with real estate but it's the same idea 10 years ago somebody was selling me some houses in Cleveland suburb and he had done a ton of research in 0708 bought the houses and I was buying them from him for 30 less than he paid for them right 30 less so he's taking me through the houses the first house we go to we walk in I'm walking in but I literally spent maybe 90 seconds two two minutes in the house we walk I go okay next house he goes wait what you don't want to do more I go no he goes don't you want to do more research I go how much research do you do buying these houses here's a ton I go and you're selling to me now for 30 less I like my process and he kind of laughed at my comment was I got the price that I wanted what do I care about at that point are the is the basement caving in are the walls caving in if the answer is no I'm going to do great now I am lazier than most investors but sorry I'm laser the most thorough investors but when it comes to ten thousand foot view this is the average investor does 10 000 feet what are they doing is the company cool yes okay I'm gonna buy the stock is that is the company cool is the stock going up yes yes the one foot view reading the 10K understanding everything about it I'm probably at 100 feet I know enough about the company from looking at the financials and asking the right questions and getting in and getting your research to find me the right answers because I have experience in business I can ask the right questions I can ask a lot of very good questions they're going to answer all the questions but to me I'm trying to weed out all the like I don't want to buy a company where I have to be interviewing suppliers and ex-employees to buy them that's not my game I'd probably make more money if I did that but I'm okay just not being not not beating Warren Buffett and all these other investors I'm okay just doing my process because my process in the long run will beat the market right because my emotional side of things is great I have no problem sticking with the stock that might be down 50 percent I've already seen it Bob at one point was down 55 for me I stuck with it yep right one more buying more exactly yeah so this is what we do as a company palantir guys what my recommendation to you is don't take my word for it go out there and do your research but for me I'm going to be hesitant merely because of that issue with palantir that's it the free cash flow I love the growing business I love but in terms of the way in which they reported something we're going to do more research but the good news is I'm not interested in palantir at this price that's the thing mate let's let's let it get back to four dollars and fifty cents five dollars see if something changes in the next quarter see if they elaborate on it a little bit more and maybe the thesis changes again and maybe we we're wrong but good news is so low we have to go make a decision today correct I'm not willing to pay for a speculative play like this I might want to pay the premium it takes in order to get it right but if it gets to four bucks for example you better believe I'm gonna do a lot of research on palantir because this could be a company that really grows immensely over the next 10 or 20 years yes and I'm okay with that so guys thank you very much if you like all this software and all the things I talked about it sign up now and subscribe to the channel thanks very much
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