저자: EverythingMoney진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 자동차 회사이며 2023년 3월 기준 주가 168달러 수준으로 고점 대비 조정. 테슬라의 PER 100배 이상, 주식 수 22% 증가에 따른 희석을 지적하며 고평가 판단. 20년 현금흐름 분석(매출·이익률·PER·할인율 가정)으로 주당 26~100달러(중간 57달러)로 산출, 현재가보다 낮게 봄. 발표자는 테슬라 숏 포지션 보유 사실을 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Elon Musk went and bought Twitter and started opening his mouth and they hated the company suddenly you don't get it Paul okay and I was fine with that my brother wasn't he was crying every day but I was fine with it guys Tesla is quite the stock it's up like 60 or 70 percent this year the all-time high was 4 14.
it got as low as 100 then it got a high recently it's 220 and now let's see where it's at in our software so we pull it up on our software Tesla's currently at 168 so it's pulled back quite a bit so year to date it's still up 55 it was at 108 to start the year and it got as high as 214. I think intraday got to 220 and now it's at 168 and guys in full disclosure I have a short on Tesla that I started a while like about a few weeks ago and I am up big on it and I'm excited and that's not the show to sit there and say you should do it do not do those things because I do it I can take on a lot more risk than the average person I've got eight businesses upstairs I've got plenty of cash flow coming in and I didn't risk a ton on the Tesla short I didn't risk anything that would make my life impossible to live the way I wanted to live I make very specific bets and and for a while there I was down a lot of my Tesla I started showing Tesla at like 1 80 a share and it went up to 220.
and I was fine with that my brother wasn't he was crying every day but I was fine with it but let's look at Tesla as a company because remember a company can be awesome and the stock price can suck in fact a lot of times that's the way it is why because in the short run stocks are a voting machine if everybody loves the company they're going to run it up then Elon Musk went and bought Twitter and started opening his mouth and all of a sudden every single Tesla Fanboy with a man bun who was a super left-wing lover of Elon Musk all of a sudden realized he wasn't what they thought he was and they hated the company suddenly and now Tim is putting his hand in his head I'm sure at some point because I just said that and I don't care it's absolutely a fact literally the people I knew who loved Tesla were all these left-wingers who suddenly hated Elon Musk because he bought Twitter and he made it more freedom of speech it just was weird to me but anyhow so Tesla is a 548 billion dollar company just remember it was well over a trillion very recently not much debt because you look at the Enterprise Value it's 562 and the market cap is 548 that differ references net debt with cash and everything so very properly financed business but remember it is a car company it is there a component of technology in there aswath uh de modern or whatever he pronounce his name he says this now I can understand that but it's still a car company 88 of its revenues come from Car Sales it's a car company that's it it's a car company now if you want to dilute yourself into believing it's something else you're probably going to lose a lot of money and that's Sometimes the best the best way to learn it's just like crypto Paul it's all about the blockchain okay they all have blockchain which one's better you don't get it Paul okay so let's look at the profit margin big profit margin lasts 12 months from from Tesla last five years and guess what they were growing a lot so I can understand this gross margin is solid the question is can they hold these gross margins up because a gross margin of 25.6 percent is really high for a car company look at the other car companies they tend to be 15 to 20 unless your Ferrari selling only 13 000 cars a year so unless you're Ferrar selling 13 000 cars a year at fifty percent gross margin with twenty percent bottom line in order for Tesla to be a larger and larger company they have to sell cheaper and cheaper cars you can't be the number one car manufacturer in the world selling only to the top one to five percent of car buyers it's just not going to work you've got to appeal to the masses so I have questions about can this gross margin stay very high now they might have some process that makes it great I do think one thing they should focus on is making sure unions don't enter their business and for those of you Union lovers out there you have ruined American manufacturing that's an absolute absolute fact in my opinion I shouldn't say did I just say fact in my opinion you know what I'm trying to say when you have janitors at the car companies making over a hundred thousand dollars a year it's hard to make a profitable vehicle and the car business is so Capital intensive you need these margins do not ruin Tesla by becoming a union company don't do it just fight it and if you believe in unions I want you to do me a favor take your head out of your ass just please do that for me me and if you hate me for saying that write it in the comments below I will love it because I never checked the comments anyways let's continue on five year return to invested Capital 6.7 but the last year 17.7 driven a lot by this profit margin so that's there you got to remember that they're returning invested capital is going to go higher as their net operating profit goes higher okay great let's go check out their uh eight pillars oh my all right apart from 100 161 times earnings and 189 times free cash flow they've also diluted their investors they've issued 22 percent more share they have 22 percent more shares outstanding today than they did five years ago that dilutes you as an owner that means you're splitting the revenue and profit up by with more and more people as you own the company is that a good thing no so hypothetically and luckily this is not the case if Tesla made 22 more money today than they did five years ago you saw no benefit because of issuing 22 more shares they now split those profit that profit up by 22 more shares than they did before that means you are being diluted a lot of value investors a lot of investors in general won't even invest in a company if they've issued more shares over the last 10 years listen keep it the same and if the chairs Shares are cheap buy them back I do not want Tesla buying back shares now whenever I see on Twitter people say hey Elon you got 23 billion in cash however you buy back some shares all I think to myself is morons it is amazing to me I know a person who is a CEO of a multi-billion dollar Corporation and he thinks the exact same way and I just slap my hand on my head he believes in buying back shares at any price and he believes on issuing debt in order to pay dividends to himself and his other partners I hate it that's what CEOs do they don't understand investing like you can it might sound crazy but you can understand investing better than these Harvard mbas absolutely better than they can how do you do that follow the channel okay so let's go look at analyst estimates oh by the way don't forget if you're a subscriber to the software you can edit your pillars you can put up to 12 pillars for yourself and the combination is in the trillions of different combinations you have for your pillars now let's go to analyst estimates which again take it with a grain of salt boy this fast growing company I mean it's growing over the next one two four years they're gonna increase their profit by what 50 percent that's a lot but in order to have 160 times earnings and free cash flow you need a lot more than that you need a lot more than 12 to 15 earnings growth to justify that okay what about Revenue almost doubling in the next four or five years all right great a lot of growth potential there but again you need a lot more than that to justify a three figure price to earnings ratio and price to free cash flow ratio all right so what do you pay for this company you determined you want to own the company company but you just don't know what price all right well that's why I use a stock analyzer tool this is the most popular part of our software used 1.3 million times this year but not the only part of our software we have all these other tools along with it that are listed here so if you want to try it out seven dollars seven days go to everythingmoney.com it's a no-brainer guys one dollar per day all right think about all the things you spend over a dollar per day if I asked you for a dollar every single that day I saw you you'd give it to me in two seconds never ask for it back this changes the way in which you can invest it's a no-brainer so I'm actually going to do a 20-year analysis for Tesla and here's why I think you can do one to 20 years I think that this is a company that's gonna be around for a very long time I do think it'll be the leader in electric vehicles for a very long time and I want to give a wide range of potential revenue and profit numbers in this company there is a what going out 20 years is difficult but if I give a wide range of growth potential in a wide range of range of profit margin I can at least sit there and say okay where is this in the spectrum of what this company could be worth it's gonna be a very wide and the further out you go think about like a pie the further out you go the longer distance the bigger the Gap right the bigger the distance between the ranges that's okay that's quite all right the more mature and I would actually say that Tesla isn't the most mature company they're still small relative to what they could be they just passed a million Car Sales last year in one year was it last year the year before something like that I'm looking at going okay this is still a relatively small company this company has a lot of growth potential they can make electric vehicles for the masses and they take a great quality car a fun car it's awesome but everybody else is starting to make their own electric vehicles I have an electric vehicle that's not a Tesla now is it the same technology no but I like my car a lot it's a lot of fun and I'm fine with that and frankly I don't want to have the same car as every man bun Tesla Fanboy out there I have no desire to I would rather use deodorant and have a haircut than have a Tesla unfortunately it's not going to get me in trouble for saying that probably all right so Revenue growth the next 20 years I'm going to go with a low end of six middle of 10 high of 14.
now let's see what that takes us to so I'm going to open the calculator up 1.06 to the 20th power is tripling the revenue over the next 20 years they did 81 billion it takes them to 250 billion dollars okay what about 10 8 6.7 times takes in the 600 500 to 600 billion dollars in revenue and 14 13 times that's over a trillion dollars in Revenue in the next 20 years those are big ranges 250 billion to 1.1 trillion in Revenue do you see how big that range is huge range difference but that's important to me profit margin all right I'm gonna do five nine and thirteen all right free cash flow margin I'm actually doing the exact same thing now PE now last year's PE is 42 the five year PE is like 116.
last year's price of free cash flow 70 the five year is 160 or whatever 180. now for a mature company a very mature company which it will become in 20 years what's the appropriate p e ratio okay well the car business is tough I'm gonna go 13 15 and 17. I'm actually going a little bit lower than I think on the 13 but I'm okay with that I think 13 might be low but I get worried about the unions I get worried about decreasing margin I get worried about so many other things that I want to be conservative in that assessment and if you're like me Kevin who just thinks oh it's currently 40 therefore discounts 35 then I want you to do me a favor I want you to go outside your garage I want to take I want you to go take open your car door up put your head in between the car door in the frame I want you to slam it repeatedly in the head whenever I talk about Tesla I always say that because I can't stand how ridiculous people get in looking at Tesla and saying oh this company is going to be an adpe in 20 years how where's the growth it's math guys in order to pay 80 times earnings you have to have massive growth so my desired return I'm gonna be conservative I'm gonna call it nine percent of the low side 12 in the middle 15 in the high and the reason being is as I they go higher I want to have more margin of safety the more and more the bigger and bigger assumptions I make it's less likely to happen so I need a much bigger return these are Big ranges guys very big ranges and 15 a year over 20 years versus nine percent is a very big difference almost triple the value so when I hit this analyze button it's going to spit out six numbers for me the key here guys is to look at this range of numbers and say okay based on this where is Tesla today I really have no idea where this number is going to end up because I haven't done this kind of 20-year analysis with these wide ranges before and that's what's great about the stock analyzer tool I can do it over and over again making my different assumptions based on the new data that comes out so here we go boom guys here's the scary part if you like Tesla right now you are stupid the highest price I have is 100 a share now I am doing a 15 return here I am doing that but let's make it 12 just for the sake of it it's still not there we're still at 147.
15 guys low price of 26 high price of 100 middle price of 57 on my 60. thank you very much if you hate me tell me in the comments
Comments 0