저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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그랜덤은 2021년 거품의 디플레이션 국면이 진행 중이며 2023년 말~2024년 중 경기침체와 주가 하락이 올 수 있다고 본다. 연준의 침체 회피 전망에 반대하며, 금리 인상기 진입으로 자산가격 하락 압력이 있다고 주장. 미국 시장은 PER 22배로 다른 주요국(일본·캐나다 14배, 독일 13배 등)보다 비싸고 과열 상태라며, 미국 외 글로벌 인덱스 펀드 선호를 언급. 다만 S&P500 PER은 최근 30년 평균 수준이라는 반론도 소개됨.
다듬은 글
do you think we're in a major bubble now at right now in the United States and do you think that uh the tech bubble has burst sufficiently so so that the tech Bubble Burst is over throughout his over 50-year career billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham has developed a reputation as somewhat of a doomsday Oracle he has become famous for predicting some of the biggest stock market crashes of all time such as theom crash in 2000 the financial crisis in 2008 and most recently the tech bubble in 2021 here in 2023 the US Stock Market is once again bumping up against alltime highs and this has Grandam warning that the market is dangerously overvalued here's what he had to say you were well known in the investment world for uh saying that sometimes there are bubbles and Bubbles should be avoided do you think we're in a major bubble now at right now in the United States and do you think that uh the tech bubble has burst sufficiently so so that the tech Bubble Burst is over I think we are descending from the 2021 bubble which was one of the great Bubbles and this should be normally the deflationary Peri period the deflating period uh which is a function of uh will the earnings uh decline will profit margins decline will the economy go into recession and we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year and and an accompanying decline in stock prices so the recession that you're predicting is probably not going to happen in 2023 but maybe it may start in 2023 uh the Federal Reserve recently said that they think we've uh kind of uh cleared the recession uh hurdle and they don't really project a recession any longer you disagree with the FED on that yeah I think the fed's record on these things is is wonderful it's h almost guaranteed to be wrong they uh have never called a a recession and particularly not the ones following the great bubbles they prided themselves in in stimulating the bubbles they took credit for the beneficial effect of of higher asset prices on the economy they have never claimed credit for the deflationary effect of asset prices breaking and they always do now you said uh not too long ago that you weren't a big fan of J pal and the way he's been handling inflation uh is that correct yes that's correct and you think he's done a better job recently in getting inflation under control I think um it's largely out of his hands the forces work I suspect inflation will never be as low as it average for the last 10 years that we have re-entered a period of of moderately higher inflation and therefore moderately higher interest rates in the end life is simple low rates push up asset prices higher rates push asset prices down and we're now in an era that will average higher rates than we had for the last 10 years the US Stock Market has done really well for almost 15 years look at this chart it shows how the SNP 500 Index which represents the US Stock Market has gone up in February 2009 it was around 1,000 and now it's about 4,500 this has been one of the best times for stock market investors in the past 14 years but some people including Grantham are worried that the market is too high and might not be able to stay this way one big reason for the market going up so much is that interest rates have been really low in the US for most of the last 15 years almost close to zero these low rates have been like super fuel for the stock market let me explain to real really understand what Jeremy Grantham is talking about let's talk about how interest rates affect the value of things you own that make money for you these things are called assets like stocks bonds and real estate when we figure out how much an asset is worth we think about how much money it will make for us in the future and bring that money back to today using an interest rate it might sound tricky but it's not so bad imagine you have a stock that makes $30 every year for 10 years and after 10 years you can sell it for $300 you know how much money the stock will make for you but we need to figure out its value today we do this because money today is worth more than money in the future here's a simple question to prove it would you rather have $10,000 today or $10,000 in 10 years you'd choose $10,000 today because it's worth more now this is called the time value of money for this example let's start with a 20% interest rate at that rate the stock is worth $174 per share now watch what happens when we lower the interest rate at 15% the stocks value goes up to $225 if we drop it to 10% the value goes even higher to $300 and at 6% its kir Rockets to $388 per share notice that the money the stock makes doesn't change only the interest rate do lower interest rates made the stock go from $174 at 20% to $388 at 6% a massive 123% increase without the stock earning any extra money this shows how low interest rates can make stock prices shoot up but it's not just about numbers human behavior plays a role too Grandam explains it like this likely to go into a recession probably next year though it could start this year that the uh Tech Bubble Burst that we saw beginning let's say last year has not yet completely played itself out right and we have a little mini bubble a bit in artificial intelligence in a way not so many uh they were very big moves in a dozen very big stocks and um well many many in the sense that it's not affecting the overall economy as much as the whole Tech no no that's right in in comparison to 2021 and 19 29 it's much so what is it about human nature that makes them feel they want to participate in a bubble they see the stock market going up and they think they're going to miss something even the famous Sir Isaac Newton participated in a bubble when he thought he was missing something he mortgage his house and put all his money into the south sea Corporation and lost all his money so even somebody as smart as that was unable to resist the bubble why is it that humans can't resist being in bubbles I always like to say there's nothing more supremely irrit ating and watching your neighbors get rich it is just irresistible to try and join in and uh when enough people hit the inflation point it sucks in everybody and they're they're the great bubbles they're the ones that are interesting mostly there's a nice balance between bulls and bears and once in a blue moon every 20 years or so you'll hit an inflation point where enough people become bullish that people stop thinking about fundamentals bubbles happen because people get scared of missing out when they see others making lots of money this has been going on for as long as there have been financial markets JP Morgan a big shot Banker from the early 1900s and the guy behind JP Morgan Chase knew this well heu markets go up and then crash many times he once said seeing your neighbor getting rich messes up your financial judgment even really smart folks like Isaac Newton can get caught up in the idea of making easy money and let me tell you about Newton in case you don't know Isaac Newton was super smart he's the guy who figured out how gravity Works invented calculus and came up with the laws of motion but even with all that brain power he lost a bunch of money during a financial bubble back in 1711 he put a lot of his money into the south sea Company a British company that promised big profits at first he made a ton of money as the Company's stock went way up but then he got greedy and risked everything by borrowing money to buy even more stock in 1720 the bubble burst and the south sea Company's stock crashed hard Newton's Investments turned nearly worthless and he lost a lot of money Newton famously said I can calculate how things move in the sky but not how crazy people act even a Genius Like Him couldn't escape the chaos of the financial markets so if Isaac Newton couldn't avoid a bubble how can we luckily Grantham has some advice on what to do next so if I said to you look I'm not that wealthy I have $100,000 I'd like to put it somewhere where I'm not going to lose it what would you recommend the person just a Index Fund or something else no no I think a a global index fund that that had um most of its money outside the US and if if they were up to it I would say only in best outside the US for the time being because this this overpricing in the market is mainly a US event the markets outside the US are not particularly overpriced Grantham thinks there's a big bubble in the US Stock Market one way to figure out if stocks are too expensive is by using something called a p ratio which stands for price to earnings ratio think of it like this if you pay $20 for a stock that makes $1 in profits the p ratio is 20 it means you're paying $20 for every dollar the stock makes the higher the PE Ratio the more expensive the stock and the lower the ratio the cheaper it is this can apply to entire country's stock markets too let's compare P ratios for different countries to see if Grandam might be right about the us being too expensive right now the us.
stock market has a p ratio of 22 which is one of the highest in the world indiia is even higher at nearly 24 now let's check how the US compares to other big economies France is at 16 Australia at 15 Canada and Japan are around 14 Germany is about 13 the United Kingdom is 10 China is nine Italy is 8 and Brazil is six you can see there's a big gap between the US and these other countries supporting grantham's idea that US stocks are expensive but there's more to it the US has many huge and profitable companies and lots of people worldwide invest in them which drives up the prices so we also need to look at how the US p ratio compares to its past if we use the snp500 as a measure its p ratio is similar to what it's been for the last 30 years so maybe Grandam is wrong and US Stocks can stay this way for a while that's the story
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