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하워드 막스의 2000년 메모 'Investment Miscellany'를 소개하는 영상. 닷컴 버블 이후 투자자 심리의 무분별함(돈에 대한 존중 부족), 과거 고수익률의 맥락(PE 확장 의존), 리처드 북스테이버의 유동성 프레임워크(유동성 수요자/공급자), 오크트리의 부실채권 투자 전략, 정보와 지식의 차이, 분산투자의 한계, 시장 사이클에 대한 장기적 관점 등을 논의함. 개별 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
[ investment miscellany written on the 1st of November 2000 all right let's dive in today we're going deep on a memo it's called investment miscellane written by Howard Marx back in November of 2000 now 2000 you might be thinking hm is that a little dated yeah 2000 this memo is packed with Timeless wisdom absolutely really relevant even today oh for sure I mean what's fascinating is that Marx wrote this right after the dotc bubble burst oh wow so you know it was a crazy time in the market he was really grappling with you know all the chaos and trying to makes sense of it and his observations on Market psychology and investor Behavior super valuable especially for investors today trying to navigate all this complexity so this isn't just a history lesson no at all we're talking about enduring principles that can help us understand yeah What markets are doing and you know make smarter investment decisions what were some of the key themes that stood out to you well one thing that hit me was Marx's observation about this like disrespect for money oh interesting that he saw during the dotc boom okay investors they were just throwing caution to the Wi chasing these crazy returns without much regard for like traditional valuations yeah it's like they forgot that risk was even a thing yeah totally but is this disrespect is this just a DOT era thing or are we seeing this today ooh that's a million question right I think you know it's a good question for investors to think about like are there signs of similar exuberance are we seeing you know companies with shaky business models getting these astronomical valuations is fulo driving our decisions okay fear of missing out so let's say we're seeing those warning signs what do sit on the sidelines and wait for the crash not necessarily I mean remember every cycle is different right what Marx is really highlighting is being aware of these psychological forces you know when sentiment is high it's easy to get swept up in the hype yeah I make some irrational choices so it's about staying grounded yeah having a philosophy for sure and not letting our emotions drive the bus now markx also says you can't just expect double- digigit returns right from the stock market forever what's the logic there well he's pushing back against this Blind Faith in historical averages right he points out that those impressive returns often include periods of significant PE rate ratio expansion meaning investors are willing to pay more for each dollar of earnings and when valuations are already high yeah you can't really Bank on that happening again exactly so past performance yeah isn't always a reliable indicator way it's all about context you got to understand those factors that drove those historical returns and consider if those factors are going to stick around that makes sense this brings us to liquidity you know yeah how it drives Market swings Marx actually uses a framework from Richard bookstaber who argues that traditional models often overlook this impact of liquidity yeah bookstaber he's all about how during a crisis the need for immediate liquidity like right now liquidity it trumps everything even price so it's like if you need to sell you need to sell you'll take any price right finding a buyer at any price yeah becomes more important than getting fair value so people are willing to pay less if there are more sellers than buyers yeah and that's when you get those sharp drops Buck stabber talks about liquidity demanders okay the ones who have to sell no matter what and then there are liquidity suppliers the ones who come in and buy at that moment I'm guessing this is where oak tree Capital comes in Mark's firm they're the distress debt Specialists right exactly they're often the ones buying yeah when everyone else is running away Yep they're the bargain hunters uhhuh but it's not just about buying cheap it's about understanding why something is cheap right right is it just a tempor blip or is there a deeper problem this ties into Mark's point about information versus knowledge just because the information is out there doesn't mean everyone knows what to do with it right doesn't mean everyone can interpret it correctly or make good decisions based on it and today we're overloaded with information yeah for so that distinction is more important than ever so how do we avoid becoming what Marx calls informed fools we'll definitely have to unpack that our next segment this is already fascinating yeah there's a lot to dig into you know it's funny this whole information versus knowledge thing reminds me of Sherlock Holmes oh yeah that line data data data I can't make bricks without clay I love that we're swimming in data yeah but without the right framework it's just noise so how do we turn that clay into bricks how do we cultivate true investment knowledge well markx argues it's not just about access to information it's about understanding those underlying forces that drive markets and investor Behavior it's about having a framework to filter that information separate signal from noise and make decisions based on a solid investment philosophy okay that makes sense but what does that actually look like like in practice hm let's take the dot bubble okay there was plenty of information about the company's going public but investors got caught up in the hype yeah ignoring traditional valuation metrics just focusing on that potential for rapid growth so they saw the clay but it wasn't the right kind of clay yeah to build a lasting business exactly that's where a good investment philosophy comes in it helps you ask the right questions analyze the beta critically and avoid making impulsive decisions based on fear or greed so it's about having those guiding principles that help you navigate the market yeah but how do we develop that philosophy are we born with it or can we learn it you know I think it's a bit of both some people are naturally inclined to think critically and independently but for most of us it's a process learning experimenting refining our approach over time and reading memos from brilliant investors like Howard marks right exactly speaking of Marx he dives into Market crises using Richard bookstaber work can you remind us about that framework and how markx uses it sure bookstaber really emphasizes the role of liquidity in driving those Market swings especially during crises he argu use that traditional models Focus too much on information and fundamentals as the main drivers of prices when in reality it's the need for immediate liquidity that often overshadows everything else right like we were saying people become liquidity demanders when they need to sell quickly exactly no matter the price and that can create a domino effect leading to those big Market drops right and that's where marks and oak tree come in oak tree Capital yeah they specialize in distressed debt so they're often the ones providing liquidity when everyone else is running away so they're basically taking advantage of those four sellers buying assets at a discount because no one else wants them at that moment that's a big part of their strategy they have the expertise and the patience to wait for those moments when fear and panic create opportunity MH they're not trying to time the market they're letting the market come to them that's pretty contrarian isn't it most investors are trying to buy low sell high chase the trends right but Mark saying the real opportunities are in finding those pockets of distress and being the buyer of Last Resort that's a whole different way of thinking it is it takes a lot of guts to buy when everyone else is selling yeah definitely but that's where the big returns can be if you can identify those undervalued assets yeah and hold them through the recovery interesting but this approach wouldn't it only work in certain markets what about when things are good and there's not a lot of distress that's a Fair Point Oak Tree strategy is tied to distressed opportunities right so when markets are booming and there are fewer forced sellers they might be less active so it's not something you can just apply in any environment yeah you need to understand the Dynamics exactly it's not one siiz fits-all okay but it shows how important it is to be adaptable and recognize that different strategies work better in different Cycles now we talked about realistic expectations marks you can't just expect those double digigit returns forever right but how do we set those realistic expectations when the market is so unpredictable emphasizes historical context those High returns from the stock market often include periods of PE ratio expansion meaning investors are willing to pay more for each dollar of earnings and when valuations are already high you can't count on that happening again so past performance not always a reliable predictor exactly it's all about context you have to understand the factors that drove those past returns and consider if they'll continue for example interest rates are higher today than they were a few years ago so investors might be less willing to pay those high prices for growth stocks so instead of just looking at historical averages we need to dig deeper yeah understand those underlying conditions that are shaping the market it requires a willingness to challenge our assumptions be open to new information and adjust our expectations makes sense Marx also talks about diversification and how it doesn't always work during a crisis right he says diversification doesn't always protect us because in times of stress investors tend to behave the same way yeah regardless of what they own so it's like everyone's running for the same Lifeboat even though they started on different parts of the ship exactly so how do we diversify effectively knowing that it might not always work well it's about diversifying thoughtfully not just mechanically so instead of just spreading your bets across asset classes think about diversifying across strategies time Horizons even the psychological profile psychological profile yeah think about it some investors are more risk averse others are comfortable with volatility if you're heavily invested in strategies for risk averse investors your portfolio might not hold up during a downturn even if it's Diversified across asset classes it's not enough to just diversify across stocks and bonds we need to think about risk profiles too and how those Investments might react it requires a deeper understanding of what you're investing in and the motivations of other investors this is really thought-provoking it's clear that Marx isn't giving us a set of rules to follow he's challenging us to think critically understand the market and develop our own philosophy yeah based on sound principles you know one thing that really stuck with me from Marx's memo was this idea of disrespecting money yeah like when markets are doing well people get a little too comfy with risk right it's like they forget yeah that markets can go down too we see it all the time investors chasing the latest trends throwing money at companies you know unproven business models ignoring basic valuation principles and it's not just individual investors either no not at all right we see with institutions too Pension funds endowments even Sovereign wealth funds yeah everyone gets caught up in the frenzy so how do we guard against this this disrespect for money how do we stay disciplined when it feels like everyone else is throwing caution to the wind I think it goes back to what we were saying about having a strong investment philosophy and sticking to it right understanding your risk tolerance your goals and the principles that guide you it's about having the courage to be different to say no when everyone else is saying yes exactly and it's not easy it takes discipline patience and being okay maybe missing out on some shortterm games but in the long R that's how you protect your capital and reach your goals now markx also talks about the cyclical nature of markets he says periods of high returns are often followed by periods of lower returns or even losses so how do we apply that to our own investing well I think it's about setting realistic expectations M don't assume the market will always go up or that you can always get double digit returns right understand there will be ups and downs and the key is navigating those Cycles with a long-term perspective so instead of trying to time the market yeah or chase the hot stocks we should be building a portfolio yeah that can handle the rough patches exactly and that means having a mix of Investments that perform differently in different environments having some cash to take advantage of opportunities and having the patience to stick to your plan even when things get tough so it's not just about picking the right Investments it's about having the right mindset it's about the approach yeah investing is as much about psychology as it is about Finance that's a good point understanding how markets work how investors behave and managing your own emotions that's crucial well I think we've covered a lot today we've gone through Mark's insights on Market psychology liquidity the importance of knowledge yeah and the dangers of disrespecting money H what are some key takeaways you hope our listeners will remember I think the biggest one is investing is a journey not a destination it's about constantly learning adapting refining your approach yeah it's about being humble enough to know you don't have all the answers and being open to new information different perspective and Having the courage to think for yourself exact make your own decisions don't just follow the crowd do your own research stay disciplined even when it's tempting to do otherwise and remember investing is a marathon not a Sprint great advice thanks for joining us on this deep dive into Howard Marx's memo investment miscellane we hope you found it valuable it was a pleasure being here thanks for listening everyone
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