저자: 미상 · 외국인
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하워드 막스 메모 '예측의 가치'를 해설. 예측은 맞아도 수수료·세금·기회비용으로 수익을 보장하지 못하며, 많은 예측이 동전 던지기 수준이고 예측 성적표가 공개되지 않는다는 점을 지적. 대신 '알 수 있는 것을 안다'는 태도로 전문 영역에 집중하고, 과거 추세 외삽의 위험과 확신을 갖고 행동하는 어려움을 강조. 장기적·기본기 중심 투자 철학을 제시.
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[ the value of predictions or where' all this rain come from written on 15th of February 1993 welcome back for another Deep dive today we're uh really getting into it we're going to be talking about Market predictions you know those predictions we hear all the time yeah like uh will the economy be good will it be bad exactly and this time we've got a great source to help us break it all down Howard Mar oh yeah he's the best and in his memo the value of predictions he gets into why we should always be a little skeptical of those forecasts about the economy interest rates which companies are going to be the next big thing you know what I always wonder everyone dreams of timing the market perfectly Buy Low sell High how sweet would that be right if only it were that easy and Marx gets that but he says it's not as simple as it seems like a lot of people think that if if you're right about the market even half the time you're golden yeah 50/50 odds that's got to be good enough right well not really because even if you're right half the time it's still not enough to overcome things like you know trading fees oh and taxes yeah exactly plus imagine missing out on a bull market because you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dip That Never Comes o that fear of missing out can really get to you yeah and you know something else I've always found fascinating is that even if you make a correct prediction say about economic growth if everyone else is also predicting it it's already priced in exactly so you're not gaining an edge exactly you're not some kind of investing genius for predicting the sky is blue it's already baked into the market you know it's like when a company announces great earnings but everyone already expected it the stock price doesn't really budge exactly to really get those outsized returns you need to call the things nobody else sees coming have a truly different view which honestly is like finding a needle in a hay stack or maybe more like finding that one specific needle in a stack of other needles that all looks sort of the same huh and even if you're right you need the guts to stick with your prediction when everyone else thinks you're crazy right it's that classic thing if you're too far ahead of your time people just think you're wrong exactly that's where true conviction comes in and that's something markx talks about a lot it's not just about being right it's about having the fortitude to act on those convictions even when it's uncomfortable which is easy to say but so much harder to do in the moment it really is and you know Marx doesn't just explain why predictions are tough to get right he also gets into why relying on them so much can really hurt investors oh in those sneaky ways you don't see coming yeah he talks about this thing the hidden cost of constantly jumping in and out of the market based on predictions because you think you've timed it just right you think you're outsmarting everyone but you end up missing out on the biggest periods of growth while you're waiting on the Sidelines for the perfect time to get back in that's like the worst yeah like holding off on buying that new phone waiting for it to go on sale and then bam it sells out and you're stuck with your old busted phone Perfect Analogy and then on top of the missed opportunities there's the actual Financial cost like every time you trade based on some prediction those fees add up and if those predictions are no more accurate than a coin flip which let's be real a lot of them are you're just lighting your money on fire and here's something else that I think is so important that markx brings up accountability he's like where are all the scorecards we never see 4casters having to own their past predictions good or bad right like a report card here's what I predicted last year and here's how it actually turned out yeah that would be some real transparency it would definitely give us all pause before blindly following their next big prediction you'd be like put your money where your mouth is if you're so sure right and it would definitely make you think twice about who you trust but okay so if we can't rely on those predictions what's an investor to do Mark says to focus on knowing the knowable which sounds great but what does that actually even mean it does sound kind of like a riddle doesn't it yeah a little bit but it's actually pretty straightforward he's saying you know instead of trying to predict the unpredictable like which way the overall Market will swing next you should really pour your energy into the areas where you can get a deep understanding so kind of like becoming a master of a particular domain exactly like instead of trying to know everything about the entire stock market maybe become the world's leading expert on you know I don't know rubber ducks okay Rubber Ducks might be pushing it but I get what you mean you get the idea Marx himself specialized in things like convertible Securities which if you're not familiar are kind of like a two for one deal in the stock and bond World hybrid exactly and he also got into things like distressed company debt cuz those are areas where if you really do your homework you can find those hidden gems exactly information is key but you know one of the biggest traps markx warns about is this thing we all do extrapolating from the past oh assuming because something happened a certain way before it'll just keep on happening exactly he talks about how we tend to just assume the future will be a repeat of what we've seen before we take current trends and just project them forward without really stopping to think will it really be that simple so like assuming that because the stock market had a good year this year it's guaranteed to be amazing next year too exactly he gives this great example of people predicting droughts based on tree rings tree rings yeah like if you only look at the Rings during a particularly dry Century you might assume droughts are way more common than they actually are in the grand scheme of things you're only seeing a tiny sliver of History so you end up making decisions based on incomplete data exactly and that's what we do all the time with the market and this whole idea of extrap it's super dangerous especially at those critical turning points there Moments When Everything Changes exactly like right before a company's fortunes totally shift trying to predict those moments is near impossible and even if you do see it coming having the guts to actually act on it that's a whole other story absolutely it takes serious conviction to go against the grain especially when you know that for a while you're probably going to look foolish most people are still stuck extrapolating the past they haven't caught on yet it's like everyone's running toward the edge of a cliff and you're the only one who can see what's about to happen and you're like should I say something right but this is where that idea of marks that we talked about earlier knowing the knowable it really comes into play don't you think totally it's about having that deep understanding of value that gives you the confidence to trust your gut even when everyone else thinks you're nuts so it's not just about having a different opinion it's about having a really really well-informed opinion exactly and it's about understanding understanding that sometimes the market is just irrational markx talks about this a lot but when you focus on what you can know with more certainty you're less likely to get swept up in all the noise it's about tuning it all out and focusing on the fundamentals which let's be honest is way harder than it sounds oh absolutely it's a constant battle especially because our brains are wired to look for patterns we want to believe that we can predict the future by looking at the past but Marx is really put pushing us to think more critically to be more aware of our own biases and assumptions and to accept that we don't have a crystal ball exactly it's about knowing you can always come back and invest another day exactly it's all about protecting your Capital you don't want to go all in on one big bet and have it blow up in your face and it all comes back to those hidden costs of trying to predict everything doesn't it yeah because even if you're right about the general direction of things if your timing is off just a little bit you can still get burned it's like that saying right too early is the same as being wrong it's so true and that's why I think Marx is advocating for a more grounded approach to investing you know one that really understands that we don't know as much as we think we do we're not profits that's for sure right so we should focus on the what we can control like we can control our own behavior how much risk we're taking on and whether we're chasing those you know get-rich quick schemes building a solid strategy and sticking to your plan exactly it's like running a marathon you need endurance to win a marathon not just a burst of speed at the starting line and you definitely don't want to trip and fall right before the Finish Line exactly it's a long game and markx really emphasizes that but you know what I find really interesting he actually says that even if he found someone who was amazing at predictions who got it right almost every time he wouldn't hire them is that what you're saying well not exactly he jokes that he'd be too busy trying to borrow money to invest alongside them uhuh that's great but it makes sense right yeah I mean if I had a crystal ball that actually worked I wouldn't be sharing those predictions with just anyone you'd be up on a private island somewhere exactly I wouldn't need this podcast but seriously it makes you think if someone is really so sure of their predictions they should be putting their money where their mouth is let's get in the game exactly so as we wrap up this deep dive into Howard marks and the value of predictions I think the big takeaway is this you don't have to be a fortune teller to be a good investor in fact it's probably better if you assume you can't predict a future right so instead of trying to time the market perfectly or pick the next hot stock focus on what you can control become an expert in your own right find your Niche learn everything you can about it and remember that investing is a journey there are going to be ups and downs the market will surprise you but if you have a solid process and you can keep your head when everyone else is losing theirs you'll be well on your way to reaching your financial goals love that advice this has been an awesome Deep dive really makes you you think thanks so much for being here and sharing your insights my pleasure always enjoy a good Deep dive until next time everyone happy investing and happy learning we'll catch you on the next Deep dive
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