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하워드 막스의 1994년 메모 'Risk in today's markets'를 소개. 저금리 시기 투자자들이 더 높은 위험을 감수하는 '먹이사슬'을 설명하고, 현재 시장의 밈주식·암호화폐 열풍과 유사하다고 해석. '남들이 신중하지 않을 때 더 신중해야 한다', '현명한 자는 처음에, 바보는 끝에 한다' 등 막스의 격언을 설명하며, 자본보존·위험 인지·전문화·경계해야 할 적신호(과도한 레버리지, 비정상 밸류에이션, 낙관 심리)를 강조. 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
[ risk in today's markets written on 17th of February 1994 let's dive into the timeless ins site welcome to the Deep dive today we're really going to dig into this Memo from Howard Marx you know the investing Legend It Was Written way back in 1994 1994 people hearing that are probably like come on is that really relevant now but trust me on this this memo it's like that fine wine it's aged like a dream it's got all these insights on risk that are well they're shockingly relevant to what we're seeing in the markets right now even today okay so bring us back to 94 Marx starts by setting the scene right low interest rates got investors champing at the bit for those big games they're practically tripping over themselves to take on more risk just to get a taste he calls it a food chain of investors I love that each one tempted to climb to that next level riskier of course all for a shot at well you know juicier returns that image really stuck with me expert am I the only one are we seeing this playing out in today's market oh 100% that analogy it's spoton because it really highlights that you know almost like a primal Instinct that seems to drive how the markets behave think about it when interest rates are low investors they're sitting on cash and it feels like inflation is eating away at their money they need a way to make that money grow and that pushes them toward what else riskier assets it's almost like a game of musical chairs nobody wants to be the one left standing When the Music Stops so who's clamming that risk ladder today what's that look like now is it really that different from 94 well back then you saw a ton of movement money market funds into bonds bonds into equities and don't forget that surge of interest in Emerging Markets these days you can definitely see Echoes of that but with a well a modern spin on things okay I'm thinking think about that whole craze with crypto and meme stocks just a couple of years ago textbook example of investors and a lot of them were totally new to the game just piling into those speculative assets hoping to strike it rich you know quick which reminds me Mark's point about hedge funds exploding back in 94 investors were throwing money at anything and oftentimes they didn't actually know what they were getting into he's careful to mention those big impressive returns yikes they come with the potential for equally big losses so how does like the average investor today actually apply that to today's you know investment land Cape that is the million dooll question isn't it look it's human nature we see high returns and we're drawn to them but we have to remember risk and reward they're two sides of the same coin whether it's crypto or meme stocks or really any investment you have to stop and ask yourself how much am I really willing to lose because the higher the reward potential the higher the potential is for you to lose well everything there's no such thing as a free lunch right especially in investing it's all about knowing your own risk tolerance right how much volatility can you handle before you start making emotional decisions speaking of risk and making those decisions Marx drops two of his they're like his most famous investing sayings in this memo this first one really made me think the less Prudence with which others conduct their Affairs the greater the Prudence with which we should conduct our own Affairs that's a mouthful so for someone listening trying to wrap their head around today's market what does that actually mean it's actually brilliant it gets at the heart of contrarian thinking which see a lot in Marx's philosophy basically he's saying when you see people acting recklessly throwing caution to the wind it's a sign you need to be even more careful more diligent in how you're approaching things it's about recognizing those times when the market gets euphoric and not getting swept up in the frenzy how can people listening tell when others are being well imprudent what are some signs to watch out for that's where things get really interesting it's about recognizing those moments when valuations get detached from the fundamentals when prices are being driven by speculation and hype more than anything with actual value so we're talking like those times when everyone feels Invincible like the markets on this rocket ship only going up exactly think back to the.com Bubble you know late 90s or how about that housing bubble in the mid 2000s oh yeah classic examples of and Marx might say this irrational exuberance people were buying up internet stocks no earnings to speak of or houses they couldn't afford but hey prices kept climbing so why not nobody wants to miss out right but and you know what's coming what happened it all came crashing down crash the wisan the one who saw that bubble early they took their profits maybe sat it out completely and they avoided those devastating losses when it all went well you know it's a good reminder that history might not repeat but it sure does Rhyme so when you see those signs you know that excess what do you do just head for the hill sit on the cash not necessarily remember markx isn't saying run away from risk he's all about risk awareness it's not about ditching the market entirely but getting picky Discerning about where you put your money being choosy making your Investments count right so instead of hopping on the bandwagon you're looking for those places where the potential payoff actually lines up with you know the risks exactly and that brings us to Mark's second gem what the wise man does in the beginning the fool does in the end this one gets at those Market Cycles the ups and downs and why timing matters the why wise man in this case is the one who sees those shifts coming the one buying when everyone else is panicking and selling when everyone else is on that high that sounds a whole lot easier said than done I mean how can anyone listening actually avoid being well the fool when it comes to these Cycles we don't have a crystal ball you're right no crystal ball it's about recognizing patterns though understanding what drives them and being patient like Marx points out back in 94 low interest rates they were already inflating asset prices not quite bubble territory yet but definitely not cheap either what that means is investors are taking on more risk for well potentially less reward sound familiar at all hm yeah kind of sounds like what we've got going on now so anyone listening how do they figure out that risk versus reward situation red flags anything they should be watching out for time to put on your detective hat one big red flag excessive leverage when people are borrowing like crazy to invest it's a multiplier gains look great but losses Amplified increase is that chance of a sharp and probably painful downturn another one valuations totally off base from you know the actual fundamentals could be stocks bonds even those alternative Investments everyone's talking about so like if you're looking and you see those price to earnings ratios way higher than usual or bond yields so low they don't seem real those are warning signs ding ding ding we got a winner but it's more than numbers pay attention to the sentiment how people are feeling that whole Market psychology thing when everybody and their cousin is super bullish brushing off any risk that's often a sign complacency set in and a correction well it might be lurking right around the corner remember what the wise man does the fool does in the end got it starting to sink in but Marx wasn't saying like don't invest back then was he it was about finding those spots where the potential reward was still you know worth it exactly he was all about thorough analysis specialization and not risking at all for a quick win these are like the Evergreen principles of investing they don't go out of style just as relevant today as they were back in '94 so someone listening maybe they're just starting out how do they put these ideas into action what can they actually do number one don't be afraid to ask questions educate yourself there are so many resources out there now no matter your experience level learn about different asset classes investment strategies and how to manage risk it's all out there just like anything else right the more you know the better equipped you are to make good decisions Bango and remember this this is a marathon not a Sprint building a diversified portfolio that actually fits your goals your risk tolerance your time frame that's the key don't get caught up in the hype chasing the next big thing patience discipline those are key 100% And speaking of discipline markx was all about focusing on what you can control which gets us to inefficient markets what do you mean by that and how does it fit into his whole philosophy great question when he talks about inefficient markets he talking about those areas where information isn't flowing freely where the herd mentality hasn't completely taken over these are the places where with the right knowledge and some real digging you can potentially find those hidden gems the undervalued assets so it's about finding those Diamonds in the Rough that the rest of the market hasn't caught on to yet you got it key points to high yield bonds convertibles distressed debt stuff like that these are areas that need specialized knowledge a really disciplined approach but can offer some sweet returns especially if you're being smart managing that risk okay break those down for us a little mhm what exactly are those and why would anyone want to invest in something called distressed debt sounds a little scary it might sound scary but that's usually where the good stuff is high yield bonds those are basically bonds issued by companies that well their cracket rating isn't the best higher risk of default but they pay higher interest rates to make up for it so it's about balancing that risk with the reward potential you got it now convertibles those are a little more complex think of them as bonds or preferred stock that can be converted into a set number of common shares of the company so potential upside if the stock takes off but you also have some protection if it tanks and distressed debt that sounds like you're waiting Into the Danger Zone it can be but it can also be pretty lucrative if you know what you're doing distressed debt it's the bonds or loans of companies in a tough spot maybe facing bankruptcy restructuring something like that these things often trade at a big discount because well people are worried about the risk but if the company turns things around or that debt gets restructured in a good way investors who got in early at those discount prices they can make out like Bandits that's wild but it sounds like you really need to know your stuff no doubt and that's where Mark's thing about specialization comes in he was big on sticking to what you know or what you're willing to really learn inside and out that's a takeaway for any investor no matter where you're at it's easy to get distracted chase the latest Trend but the real wins the long-term success that often comes from becoming an expert in a particular area so instead of being a jack of all trades you're saying become a master of one exactly Focus your energy become an expert in a specific Niche could be tech stocks real estate distressed debt Whatever Gets you fired up you're making me rethink my own strategy here I've definitely been guilty of jumping on whatever the hot stock tip of the day is yeah what I'm hearing though it's more about playing the long game doing your research being disciplined you got it investing isn't just about picking stocks it's about understanding those forces that drive the markets making smart informed decisions that'll help you reach your goals over time and that ties into another thing marks talked about that really hit home for me Capital preservation he wasn't about swinging for the fences on every investment he knew that protecting your Capital especially when things are uncertain was like the most important thing can you talk about that more absolutely Capital preservation it often gets overlooked when people are chasing those High returns but it's the foundation of good investing it's about putting the return of your Capital ahead of the return on your Capital understanding that it's way harder to recover from a big loss than it is to make smaller consistent gains over time so it's not just about making money it's about not losing it in the first place it's about having a safety net that cushion to help you weather those Market downturns without blowing up your long-term Financial wellbe exactly it's like that saying it takes a lifetime to build a good reputation but only a moment to ruin it when it comes to investing you can spend years building a solid portfolio but a handful of bad decisions can wipe it all out that's why markx was so big on thorough analysis on really understanding the risks before you jump in not just chasing returns he was a big fan of sticking to senior Securities now when you say senior Securities what does that mean how does that play into this whole capital preservation idea when he talks about senior Securities he's talking about Investments that have a higher claim on a company's assets if things go south like bankruptcy or liquidation think of it as like a pecking order for creditors so bonds over stocks in this case you got it bonds usually offer more protection than stocks because Bond holders they get paid first if a company goes belly up so it's a way to manage risk to prioritize getting your initial investment back safe and sound exactly it's more conservative but it fits with Mark's whole philosophy of preserving Capital minimizing those big permanent losses this is all making a lot more sense now thorough analysis specialization Capital preservation sticking to your guns and being aware of risk not afraid of it these aren't just you know catchy phrases they're core principles to guide you through those Market ups and downs and what's really interesting is that even though he was writing this back in '94 totally different economic climate those principles they have an a bit they're just as important if not more so in today's market we're seeing the same trends that same reach for yield sometimes at the expensive managing risk it's like that saying history might not repeat but it often Rhymes especially in the markets you said it and that's why this memo is such a great read for any investor it's a good reminder that the fundamentals of smart investing they don't really change even as the markets do their thing it's about focusing on what you can control your process your research your own risk tolerance tting out the noise and sticking to those principles even when it's tough It's about remembering that investing is a long game slow and steady wins the race it really is something how much of what he said back then still applies now it's a testament to how he approached investing you know it wasn't about chasing the next hot stock or trying to time the market perfectly he was all about understanding the fundamentals of value risk how markets work the whole picture like he had this six sense this ability to cut through all the noise and see what was really going on absolutely and that's a skill any investor can develop doesn't matter if you're managing millions or just starting out it's easy to get caught up in the day-to-day but it's the Long View that matters playing the long game being patient not letting your emotions run wild exactly and that's something else markx was big on emotional discipline he knew that investing is as much about managing your feelings as it is managing your money so how do you actually do that it's easy to say don't panic when the market takes a dive but it's hard to actually stay calm when you see your portfolio shrinking oh it's definitely not easy but it's crucial if you want to be successful in the long run one of the best things you can do is have a plan a real solid investment plan one that matches your goals your risk tolerance how long you plan to be in the game and then here's the hard part stick to it even when things get Rocky it's like having the I don't know the guts to stay the course even when everyone else is jumping ship exactly and that's really understanding your Investments comes in if you've done your research you truly believe in those companies those assets you're less likely to do something rash just because the market is having a bad day it's about filtering out the noise and focusing on the important stuff love that analogy it's about the fundamentals the underlying value not getting caught up in every little headline or rumor and remember Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make it's fine to sit back be patient wait for those Prime opportunities where you have the edge be disciplined do do your research and trust your instincts couldn't have said it better myself and I think that's a great place to wrap up Mark's memo is full of wisdom but if there's one big takeaway it's this investing it's a journey not a Finish Line you're always learning adapting getting better and most importantly enjoy the ride that's something to think about until next time on the Deep dive
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