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하워드 막스의 1992년 메모 'Microeconomics 101: Supply, Demand and Convertibles'를 해설하는 영상. 가격이 자산의 질보다 중요하다('적정 가격이면 모든 것이 AAA')는 주장, 저수요(환매성 채권 할인)를 역발상 매수 기회로 보는 관점, 과열된 수요(1980년대 부동산·LBO 버블)의 위험, 그리고 시장 심리 순환에 따른 역발상 투자 원칙을 강조한다. 구체적 예측 수치는 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
[ microeconomics 101 Supply demand and convertibles written on 8th of October 1992 ready to dive into some serious investment strategy today's Deep dive we're hanging out with the one and only Howard marks the man the myth the investing Legend we're cracking open a memo he wrote back in '92 yeah you're that right 1992 called microeconomics 101 Supply demand and convertibles talk about vintage marks this memo shows how he was applying classic economic principles to the stock market way back then and get this his insights are still incredibly relevant today okay so we're not talking about like finding rare Beanie Babies in your attic what's the core concept Marx is getting at here he's really breaking down the Dynamics of supply and demand but through an Investor's lens Marx argues that most investors get so fixated on an asset's perceived quality like its brand name or past performance they're blinded by the shiny object exactly they missed the bigger picture yeah the price you pay Marx would say that even the best company the most promising business can be a terrible investment if you overpay it's like going to an auction and everyone's fighting over a Mona Lisa print completely ignoring the actual rembrand in the corner because they don't recognize its value A Perfect Analogy and that's where markx drops his now line everything is AAA at the right price whoa okay that sounds kind of dangerous taking out of context is Marx really saying we should just buy up failing companies as long as they're cheap not exactly it's about understanding intrinsic value it's like imagine a house that needs a little work maybe some fresh paint some Landscaping if you can buy that house way below market value because others are scared off by those cosmetic fixes that's a AAA opportunity right you're getting the underlying value at a steel so it's less about chasing what's hot and more about finding those undervalued gems exactly marks would say it's about being a Discerning Shopper whether you're at a flea market or on Wall Street now remember in 1992 the US was just coming out of a recession so there was a lot of uncertainty in the markets so investors were a bit jumpy maybe not seeing the forest for the trees right and that's where Mark swoops in with his contrarian thinking he's saying don't just follow the herd look for opportunities where fear has created mispriced assets be greedy when others are fearful got it now Marx uses convertible Securities as a prime example in this memo for anyone who hasn't memorized their Wall Street dictionary can you remind us what those are again sure convertible Securities they're like the hybrid car of the investment World okay I like where this is going they offer you the stability of a bond with the potential upside of a stock so you get the regular income from the bonds interest payments which can really help you sleep at night exactly but then you also have the option to conver convert that Bond into Company's stock if and this is key if the company does well so it's like having your cake and eating it too to some extent so why was Mark so bullish on convertibles back in '92 was it just their cool hybrid nature it was more about the economic climate and understanding how supply and demand were playing out see the convertible Market was recovering from a bit of downturn investors were a little hesitant to jump back in makes sense they were still a little spooked yeah and that lack of interest that hesitancy meant that conver abl were trading at a discount Mark saw this low demand as a contrarian indicator a sign that these Securities were undervalued so less demand lower prices yeah it sounds like an opportunity Brewing exactly and to support his point Marx even pointed to data from Barons they reported that Assets in convertible funds were significantly lower compared to just a few years earlier so the data was backing up his hunch it was and this my friend is a key takeaway for investors today today when everyone is piling into the same asset class whether it's tech stocks or real estate or whatever the hot new thing is it often means prices are inflated and the smart money is looking elsewhere marks would tell you to look for those overlooked opportunities the places where other investors aren't paying attention that's where you're more likely to find those AAA deals this is already making me rethink my whole portfolio Marx was really advocating for a contrarian approach wasn't he doing your homework thinking for yourself and not being afraid to go against the grain absolutely he believed that the real gems the Hidden Treasures are rarely found by following the crowd and that contrarian thinking it applies even when we're talking about the opposite scenario when demand for an asset gets too high Okay so we've talked about the potential upside of low demand but what about when things get a little too popular I'm guessing that's where things can get risky Okay so we've talked about the potential upside of low demand but what about when things get a little too popular I'm guessing that's where things can get risky you hit the nail on the head Marx argues that when too much Capital floods into a particular asset it can create a recipe for disaster and he uses some pretty vivid examples to prove his point like real estate and leveraged buyouts or lbos in the 1980s ah the 80s big hair shoulder pads and even bigger Financial risks exactly but as Marx points out that whole era especially in those markets it was all driven by this well frenzy this almost irrational exuberance everyone wanted a piece of the action which drove up demand and of course prices to unsustainable levels it was like a bubble just waiting to burst and burst it did leaving a lot of investors wondering what hit them exactly and this is where Mark's philosophy ge being different he's saying that understanding the psychology of the market those emotional undercurrents is just as important as understanding the fundamentals of a business when everyone's feeling euphoric and piling into the same asset that's usually a sign that it's overvalued that the music is about to stop so to speak like a game of musical chairs but with a lot more at stake than just a seat precisely and when the Music Stops you don't want to be the one left standing without a chair or in this case a valuable asset so how can investors avoid getting caught up in that hype those emotional decisions especially when it seems like everyone else is getting rich quick ah the million dooll question it takes discipline for one and independent thinking don't just blindly follow the head lines are what some talking head on TV is saying Marx would say you need to develop your own investment thesis your own framework for evaluating opportunities so don't just chase the hype do your homework exactly remember those convertible Securities we were talking about earlier Mark saw their low demand as a buying opportunity but that's because he had done his research he understood the underlying fundamentals of that market he wasn't just chasing a low price for the sake of it so it's not just about spotting what looks like a bargain on the surface it's about understanding why that bargain exists 100% is it a genuine opportunity or are there underlying reasons why everyone else is staying away those are the questions you got to ask this is making me feel like a much more Discerning investor already even if I'm just managing my own little portfolio but how does this all tie back into that whole everything is AAA at the right price idea is markx really saying any investment can be a good one he's saying that an asset's intrinsic value is Paramount now a AAA rating traditionally that refers to to a Bond's creditworthiness right but Marx uses it more metaphorically to describe any asset a stock a bond even real estate that's undervalued by the market so it's not about blindly buying anything that seems cheap it's about understanding the true value of an asset and being patient enough to wait for the right opportunity you got it patience is key and markx is a big believer in understanding those big overarching Market Cycles those swings between greed and fear overvaluation an undervaluation he'd say that successful investors don't try to fight those Cycles they learn to ride them like surfing wheat for the perfect wave and then ride it exactly no when to paddle out when to catch the wave and crucially when to ride it all the way to shore because jumping in at the peak when everyone else is already Riding High that's a recipe for getting wiped out this deep dive is really driving home the importance of understanding that bigger picture isn't it the economic landscape Market psychology those underlying cycles that influence asset prices it's not just about picking individual stocks it's about understanding those bigger forces at play 100% and that's what makes Mark such a brilliant investor he sees those connections those subtle patterns that others Miss he's always thinking a few steps ahead anticipating those Market shifts and positioning himself accordingly but what I find so fascinating about his approach is that it's not just about crunching numbers there's a deeper philosophical Foundation to his thinking oh I love it when we get philosophical so so what are some of those Bedrock principles that guide Marx's approach well at its core markx philosophy is rooted in value investing which essentially means just so we're all on the same page right so value investing is about finding those assets that are trading for less than their intrinsic worth it's like finding a rare antique at a flea market for a steel you recognize its true value even if everyone else is overlooking it love that analogy okay so value investing is key what else well Marx is also a huge ad vate for contrarianism which in the investing World means it means having the conviction to go against the grain to Zig when everyone else is agging as long as you've done your research of course right not just being different for the sake of it exactly he firmly believes that the greatest opportunities often present themselves where others aren't looking and that requires independent thinking a healthy dose of skepticism and the courage to trust your own judgment even when it goes against the crowd so it sounds like Mark's approach to invest investing is as much about understanding human behavior as it is about analyzing financial statements yeah which is fascinating right because at the end of the day markets are driven by people absolutely emotions play a huge role but okay we've thrown a lot of ideas out there let's bring it back down to earth a bit what are some practical actionable insights that investors can take away from all of this how can we apply these principles in the real world yeah give us those golden nuggets of wisdom those actionable insights where do we even begin well first things first and this might sound obvious but tune out the noise don't get swept up in every hot stock tip or Market Trend you hear about just because everyone's raving about something doesn't mean it's right for you or that it's even a Sound Investment in the first place it's like those infomercials they make everything sound amazing exactly so before you hit that buy button take a step back do your homework understand what the asset is actually worth what its intrinsic value is not just the price tag it's currently carrying remember that house that needs a little TLC our AAA fixer upper right it's only a bargain if it's based on that real underlying value not just because it's cheap so Channel our inner detective got it now what about Marx's love for contrarian investing how can we apply that without you know accidentally buying into the next uh let's say betamax that's where understanding Market Cycles really comes in handy Marx is a big believer in well he argues that markets are constantly swinging back and forth like a pendulum exactly between fear and greed between Bubbles and crashes it's those emotional extremes that drive those swings so instead of getting caught up in the frenzy you got to learn to recognize those patterns when everyone is panicking running for the exits that's often a good time to look for undervalued assets on the flip side when the Market's euphoric everyone's popping champagne prices are Skyhigh that might be a good time to you know take some profit exactly it takes some chips off the table don't get greedy when everyone else is easier said than done sometimes but I hear you oh absolutely it takes discipline and remember Marx isn't saying you have to buy everything that's cheap or avoid popular Investments entirely it's about being Savvy about understanding what's really driving those prices those fundamentals and those Oho human emotions exactly fear and greed they can Cloud anyone's judgment well this has been an incredible Deep dive who knew a memo from 1992 could be so relevant today right Marx was really ahead of his time he really was okay so as we wrap up here any final words of wisdom from the legend himself that we can leave our listeners with well Marx would probably tell us to remember his famous line the one we keep coming back to everything is AAA at the right price words to live by investors absolutely do your homework trust your gut and don't be afraid to chart your own course that's a wrap on today's Deep dive into the brilliant mind of Howard Marx until next time keep exploring keep learning and keep diving deep
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