저자: Kevin · 외국인
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관세(IEEPA) 위헌 판결은 2026년 2~5월 사이 나올 것으로 예상하나 트럼프는 다른 조항으로 우회해 결국 관세가 유지될 것이라 봄. 민간 ADP 고용은 호조였으나 대형기업 제외 시 마이너스로 취약한 구조. 유동성·사모신용·고평가 우려는 남아 있으나 금리인하 기대와 실적 호조로 단기 강세 시각 유지. AMD 실적 후 하락을 매수 기회로 언급하며 EPS 리비전 확인 및 유료 구독 홍보를 병행. 나스닥 목표치 6,27x 제시(유튜버 자체 목표). 정부 셧다운 종료가 다음 상승 촉매로 제시됨.
다듬은 글
I love this. This is very good. While markets are enthusiastic that tariffs are going to be declared illegal, betting markets now seeing only an 18% chance at that Donald Trump's emergency powers are going to stay. Just a few problems that you've got to know. First of all, the Supreme Court might be hearing arguments on tariffs today, but let's be real, they're not going to make a decision anytime soon.
That's because of the way the ca the Supreme Court's docket actually works. We'll have hearings now on many different topics and cases. But we won't actually end up hearing results until after the Supreme Court justices end up uh discussing or deliberating with each other the potential uh outcome and then of course eventually voting of the legality of these tariffs.
Now, Donald Trump knows that his odds of winning these AIPA tariffs aren't looking so good. This is why we're likely to hear from Donald Trump how the economy is booming. The only reason there are uncertainties are because of the Democrat shutdown, which is his branding of it, of course. Uh, and we're obviously going to hear about some good job numbers this morning, which in fairness, the ADP report this morning was smashing.
Heavily driven, mind you, by the West Coast, California, Washington, and large firm hiring. So, relatively concentrated. Most of the country lost jobs. Most businesses outside of loss large companies lost jobs. But we still ended up with a positive jobs read from the ADP private data collectors. Now we don't have government layoffs included in there uh for you know Doge layoffs uh from uh February that would end up showing up in September October data.
We don't have that because the government shut down. But what we do have is enthusiasm compared to what we saw yesterday and some changes in the funding market. Quick note, I want to give you a heads up of what our I just transparently reveal to you what my goal was for today on the NASDAQ. This morning, the NASDAQ was negative when we were doing our market open uh and uh pre-market open course member live stream.
The market was negative on the cues and my projection was that we will end up going positive. But not just that, I had a target of 6:27 for today and 6:30 for Friday. Now, knock on wood, we might not make it to 6:27, but we've gone from 618 to 624 already. So, I know there are people in the course live that are like, "Bro, I've paid for my course many times over." So, if you haven't checked it out yet, go check it out at meetke.com.
You pay once, you get lifetime access. uh and it could be a tax write off for you. But that was that was an example of of what we forecast today. Part of that, mind you, some of the liquidity stress that we've seen over the last few days has begun to fade. Now, why has that faded? Well, probably because of the very selloff that we had yesterday.
Take a look at this. Funding stress yesterday almost fell back in line with the last week of October over here. Actually, slightly below it. Now, we still see repo usage, which we haven't seen repo usage until the last week of October. So, we're still seeing some repo usage. But I think one of the reasons this fell so much yesterday is because there was so much selling in the stock market.
You raised your liquidity from other ways. You literally raised $500 billion of stock market liquidity through selling. So, what a surprise. You didn't have to go use $40 billion of the repo facilities. But I expect more volatility to come here. Now, did I go bullish today because of this repo number?
No, because we had a sell-off. That's not a big deal. What are we bullish on the alpha report this morning because of the tariffs? Only in part. I highly anticipate that these tariffs are going to be declared illegal, but I've made this clear for months. The Supreme Court's not going to rule on this until April to May.
That's my expectation. It could be as early as February. So, I could be wrong that it'll end up taking until April or May. But my assumption is we're not going to hear about it until April or May. Could come as soon as February, but it's not going to happen today. But what's happening is people are starting to see the arguments under the hood.
And they're basically like the core crux of the argument comes down to is the president allowed to tax without the authorization of Congress? Now, the Trump administration is making an argument that no, we're not we're not taxing. We're just using emergency powers to regulate foreign countries. The fact that they raise tariff revenue is just incidental to what we're doing.
Now, John Sawyer, US solicitor general working for Trump, I have a few choice words for you. You're full of I'm sorry, but let's be real. The whole damn point of tariffs is so Trump can go, "LOOK HOW MUCH MONEY we're raising. Now, I'm going to spend some of that on money for the companies bending the knee to me.
money for uh people that I just pardoned that are going to invest in World Liberty financial token, money into whatever other things we want to spend money on because we're going to show you how unc like how we uncorrupt Washington DC because DC was mega corrupt before I got here. So, let me show you how not corrupt it is now by allocating all this tariff revenue exactly where I want it.
And then if you ask me why I pardon certain scumbag frauds, I'll be very clear to tell you I have no idea who you're talking about. But anyway, Donald Trump's team, they're going to lose this argument. This is pretty obvious. It's obvious that tariffs are designed to raise revenue. Yes. If anything, I would actually argue the tariffs are primarily a protectionist tool designed to raise revenue and increase uh the ability for our American firms to manufacture even though we're really not competitive on a global scale.
And this the the actual byproduct uh is that uh you regulate you know our relations with foreign powers. I think mostly this is hey we want to try to give a leg up to our manufacturers and we want to raise revenues. So, I think they'll probably end up losing this argument here. Uh, almost certainly.
Uh, now again, we won't hear about that until next year. And then, of course, a lot of us are saying like, hey, like, is this going to be a good thing though? Is it going to be a bullish catalyst? Because after all, we're all looking for bullish catalyst. Yes and no. Yes, it's going to be a bullish catalyst in the sense that the tariffs are going to get struck down between February and May.
However, Donald Trump's just going to use another section of the tax code or whatever. He'll move to section 232 tariffs instead of AIPA tariffs, and then you'll be right back at a 2-year court fight, and you're just going to have these tariffs for his entire administration. And it ain't going to be until he gets reamed by Democrats in 2028 and you get a Democrat president who on day one cancels all of Trump's stupid tariffs.
That's when the tariffs will go away. Now, the problem is by then we could be in a poop or duper recession. Knock on wood, I hope not. So far, praise the Lord, so far the labor market is doing okay. Now, let me show you Kevin's Bear Bull scale, which you can get totally for free by going to meet Kevin.com/data.
It's the free page. Uh oh, look at this. I just got a $5 donation. Kevin, thanks for the alpha report and call on QQQ. I made 3x the membership fee today. Let's freaking go, dude. Let's go. that I love hearing that. Uh thank you for saying that. That's really cool. Uh so uh good for you. Congratulations.
Really happy to hear that. Uh yeah. Uh yeah, I mean look, it was not a foregone conclusion that the market was going to go green today, but I I you know, I mean, we enumerated all of our reasons as to why we thought the market was going to go green today. We It's not like we're It's not like I just show market's going green today, boys and girls.
Like I put together all the information for you so you can make an informed decision. And that way also you can know like all right like if this then that right that's that's kind of the important part because I can't hold your hand all day long so I gota got to give you like frameworks. Anyway, this is uh so the taco scale I've got a I've got Trump at an eight out of eight on the taco scale as of today because a little bit I discounted this a little bit because of the um the Canada situation.
Uh keep in mind this is at meet.com/data. You can also sign up for the daily wealth email here. Dude, I'm getting so many emails from people going, "Thank you for these insights." Like, these are free insights that you get on the Daily Wealth. They're really good. Honestly, we should charge for it. But if you want this for free, you can sign up for the Daily Wealth for free.
Um, you could either get that through the Meet Kevin app or email if you want. Uh, but anyway, on the Bear Bull scale, so I've got the Bear Bull scale at about a 5.7 right now because I'm actually bullish corporate earnings outside of consumer discretionaries. We just have those underlying issues around liquidity, private credit, jobs.
These are just lingering uncertainties that say, "Hey, these are real issues and and that that could end up being shocks, right?" Which isn't great. Uh but these could be shocks right now. Like yesterday, I even tweeted this, but we went through the earnings uh in more detail in the course member live this morning on AMD.
I'm like, "Guys, these numbers on AMD are great. You have to understand AMD is only doing 46% of their uh uh their revenue from uh from data centers. Nvidia is doing 88% from data centers. So like their numbers could financially transform as they get into more data center uh uh uh you know revenues with their open AAI partnership.
I mean a hund00 million or over or sorry hundred billion dollars over the next few years is a is is a gamecher to their revenues. they could be doubling revenues. It's insane. So there like the fact that this was negative -4% yesterday and after hours I'm like this is dumb. You know AMD had good earnings but what you know whatever.
So um okay so the tariff catalyst I think this is this is pretty clear. I think you understand my where my head is on this. You could see some of the commentary on this. AIPA was directly intended to constrain authority when it was passed in the 70s to restrain Nixon. But what's actually happening is Donald Trump is using AIPA to expand his authorities.
Justice John Roberts, who's actually usually a shill for Trump. Do I still have the sheet or did I finally get rid of it? I think I finally got rid of it. Ah, THIS OH, NO. THERE IT IS. THERE IT IS. There it is. There it is. I found it. I knew I kept it. I knew it. John Roberts. John Roberts votes for Trump 74% of the time.
Alto 95% of the time for Trump. Gorsuch 95% of the time for Trump. Kavanaaugh 89% for Trump. Thomas 89 for Trump. Barrett 79 for Trump. And then of course Kagan. Soayor and Jackson. They don't vote for Trump. Take a screenshot of this. Put this as like the background on your phone. Just get my fingers out of there.
You You don't need my fingers in there. There you go. this. Yeah, there. All right, cool. All right. Uh, like, come on, man. Like, but the problem is this is just going too far, but they'll kick the can so far down the road, it won't feel like it'll give Trump plenty of time to adjust. So, then they talk about AIPA being used to ban certain products like from Iran or from Russia.
Big deal. Alto asked whether the Supreme Court should address President Trump's authority to impose tariffs under uh other under authorities other than the law at issue. Oh Oh. Oh. Alo. OH, THAT THAT line right there. Y'all know AMD just reported earnings and right after earnings, the stock was down like 4.7% in the after hours.
It was nuts. Now, so far in the overnight, it's recovering and hopefully it continues to recover tomorrow. But the question is, is it a good buy at these prices? And this is where what I like to do is jump into investing.com. They're a sponsor of the channel and I'm super excited about it because if you get the investing pro plus subscription, you can get a bonus coupon if you use code meet Kevin.
Just use the link in the description down below or scan the QR code, you get 55% for the Black Friday early bird special plus an extra 15% when you use my coupon. But here's what I love. Number one, I'm going to watch EPS revisions after these earnings. Okay, AMD only gets like 46% of their revenue from data centers.
Nvidia gets like 88% from data centers. So, I want to see that data center revenue really butter out those OPEX expenses, operating expenses at AMD, increasing their margin, which they beat topline, bottom line margins. So I want to see EPS revisions and then I want to see this change over time because if I take the forward earnings which I can get from here which is great and I could look at 26 27 28 29 30 I calculate this at under a two peg which to me means there's more upside for this chip designer absent of course a credit crisis a liquidity crisis or a labor recession.
Duh. But these were great numbers and the fact that it's selling off means maybe there's a buying opportunity. But what I encourage you to do is explore the functional tools that the investing pro membership gives you, including the latest insights on the actual stock, their Warren AI product to help you understand the technical momentum indicators and also the fundamental facts about the company.
You can add it to your watch list, track those earnings revisions, watch what actually happened with earnings, EPS beats, revenue beats, you name it, guidance, take it all from investing.com. Just use that link in the description. Support the channel. Support the sponsor of the channel. Go to investing.com and sign up for that Pro Plus subscription.
Use code meet Kevin to get an extra 15% off. So, thanks again to our sponsor investing.com. Earlybird Black Friday. Save 55% on the investing pro or pro pro plus subscription plus 15 extra% off if you use my code meet Kevin. That that line right there. bullish catalyst. Big PP. Kevin is very talented, but I don't know if it's going to be him, but he's ; I love this.
This is very good. This is fantastic. This is great. Look at this. Uh, Alo asked whether the Supreme Court should address the authority to impose tariffs under other rules because that's literally what Trump is just going to do. I mean, you heard me just say it. You know, Trump's just going to go, "All right, fine.
You're going to take away my AIPA tariffs? I'll use section 232." And then look at this. They even write here, "That would be unusual." And his question indicates he may think the administration is in trouble on the central issue in the case. Totally, totally agree, dude. Bullish, bullish, bullish. Now, that is something I can get behind.
Bullish catalyst. I like that. What a badass. Wait, where's where's Alto? Alto survey says Alto votes in favor of Donald Trump 95% of the time. And Alto's pissed. DAMN, BRO. OH, THAT AIN'T priced in. That's good. That's sexy. president is seeking power to set aside all of our trade treaties unilaterally under the word regulate.
I just don't think it can bear weight. Uh yeah, Alto asked challengers what would happen if the president simply reimposed the tariffs uh using other authorities. At that point, we'd have that case, right? Then you'd have to go litigate that for two years. That's that's my point. That's exactly the game plan.
I I have to say though, I wasn't expecting the Supreme Court to potentially go, "Hey, do we also want to block all of his ability to add tariffs, especially since the arguments, you know, against these tariffs are very clear. Tariffs are taxes. Our founders gave the power to tax to Congress." Major questions doctrine.
Uh yeah. So honestly that line right there and which just came out within the last few minutes while we've been recording this segment here that is huge. So remember that the major questions doctrine is basically this this legal principle that says Congress gives the like gives the power to enact very specific procedures like taxation or other things that aren't explicitly delegated to states or to the president.
They go to Congress and that's what's being sort of bypassed here. But that's a big line, man. I'm I'm jumping up and down on the inside about that. Uh but this is great. Uh very good. Uh so okay, listen. Now we got to talk about the Federal Reserve a little bit. So uh we did have Meerin this morning yap that even though the ADP report was a quote welcome surprise, he says I would think it's still reasonable to continue to cut rates.
Remember he's been pushing for 50 basis point cuts over and over and again. Uh this ADP report was good. it just it wasn't like mega broadbased. So, it does indicate that if we lose that sort of remaining uh support, if you will, you're going to have negative jobs very rapidly. So, as much as I cheer the ADP report that we got, I want you to see just how tight it was.
Cuz look, we got 42,000, which is great, but understand this. If you took away the 74,000 jobs created by large employers, mind you what we heard from Walmart freezing hiring, Target laying off, uh, Amazon laying off, right? You take away those large hirers, what happens to the report? Well, if you took away the 74,000 gain, uh, you would be at negative 32,000 jobs.
You'd be in recession. And this right here, most of those 74,000 jobs or most of the job gains actually came from the West Coast. And people hate the West Coast because it's deemed to be, you know, the libtard West. I mean, I happen to be in the libtard west. I guess I actually like where I live, but uh but anyway, look at where the jobs are.
It's almost all in the Pacific. 37,000 jobs in the Pacific. If you took away just the Pacific, you would have only created 3,000 jobs. So like, as usual, as much as people dump on states like California, California is providing for the rest of the damn country. It is a donor state, donor state after all, right?
We provide more to the federal government than we take. We just have a dumbass governor uh that I tried to run against, but whatever. You know, this is this is, by the way, that's me being politically neutral. Uh and uh yeah, I mean, look at it. If you took away the West Coast, bro, this would be a horrible, horrible jobs report.
So, uh, so you know, good job, liberals. You got to love them because they're providing for us once again. Got to give them credit where credit's due. Okay. Uh, what am I? Am I a liberal? Am I a Republican? I have no idea what I am. I'm I'm Kevin. That's what I am. I'm an American. Born in Germany, though.
So, does that make me less of an American? Oh, he's an immigrant. And don't know, let's deport his ass. Uh anyway, so uh look, Myin begging for cuts. No Like, of course, that's what he's going to do. THE JOBS REPORT, IT WAS GOOD. OKAY, I I said in yesterday's alpha report that I will buy the dip tomorrow if the jobs report is above my, you know, my my thresholds.
I did what I said I was going to do. Obviously, I sent that alert to people in the alpha report as as we do. Now, if I look at the odds of a uh rate cut in December on December 10th, they have fallen from about 69%. Straight through 67 all the way down to 63%. So, we only like we've lost some odds of a Fed rate cut here.
Uh so, [sighs] all right. So jobs good which is bearish bonds but it's actually it's pullish the stock market. Now we do we have issues of course the liquidity issues you know the fears about valuations. I mean look at what the economist said. The economist has this whole piece about how the sheriff US household assets and stocks sits at 21% which is basically a record high.
Margin debts are at record high. We have $42 trillion in household wealth in the stock market. If we had a stock market crash, the likes of the dotcom bubble of a 40% crash, we'd be in the dump really fast. The the Buffett indicator is at the highest levels we've basically ever seen it market cap to S&P 500.
Uh we've never been higher than this. Nobody knows a more expensive market than what we have here. Uh but who cares because right now those drop numbers are good. Now, what's our next catalyst? The next catalyst, bullish catalyst. What? Why do we want to know? Because that's why. Oh, because that's why.
That's right. Uh, all right. The next catalyst really is government reopening, which is bearish. But until then, I think we can ride the coattails of this good jobs data and the hope that eventually these tariffs will be declared illegal. Although Trump will kick and scream all the way to the, you know, wherever you go when you go to tariff jail, I guess.
Um and um although he'll just pardoned himself, but anyway um yeah, bullish through reopening. I don't think we're going to go with the nuclear option, but I do think we are getting somewhat closer to reopening, which is also bullish because if you uh take a look at even just what we're seeing at um oh, let me give you uh some of the latest updates here on uh what we've got.
Oh, by the way, quick shout outs. House Hack. I'm pretty sure we're now crossing six figures for the day. Uh, so this is I thought last month was going to be our biggest fundraising month for House Hack. It actually might be November if this pace keeps going. So anyway, shout out to those of you checking out househack.com, read the offering circular or reinvest the same company.
Uh, so Donald Trump told Senate Republicans Wednesday the GOP would become a dead party if they don't get rid of the filibuster. The problem with that is Republicans realize if you get rid of the filibuster, the 60 vote requirement to get through this, Democrats are just going to hose you in 2029 when they take control and then that Republicans have no filibuster to uh to block this crazy.
So, uh you know, that's that's a big deal and that's why Republicans are like, "We don't we could do that, but that would that would help Trump right now in his term, but it would screw us forever." that you know cuz you limit the ability to basically block things you don't like which remember that's what Congress is designed to do nothing they're designed to be a dysfunctional entity on purpose founding fathers wanted that they wanted Congress to come together only when they truly needed to because it at least somewhat limits the spending that government does somewhat of course they still spend like drunk sailors but then again you know it's the federal government and what happens over time as democracies mature they become more democratic they become more socialist Democrats obviously destroyed Republicans yesterday even Vivik said that big warning sign to to you know the MAGAS but uh people are going to get mad at me for saying MAGAS saying the MAGAS I don't think is condescending I think it's just it's an observation but anyway um you know to me there is a risk of become a substantial risk of the government just continuing to spend into deficits.
But we're not going to have to pay that bill probably for another 20 years. There will be a fiscal crisis at some point in the future and it will reduce our growth relative to, you know, countries like China, but uh we don't have to pay that bill yet. So, we could be bullish for a while. So, I like that.
I mean, broadly, bullish catalyst. The jobs report today, great. Are there still concerns around private credit? Absolutely. Are there still concerns around liquidity? Absolutely. Are there concerns about how crappily concentrated the jobs gains were in the libtard zone? Absolutely. Which is a problem because you make too much fun of them and they stop hiring.
We got no legs to stand on anymore. You kind of need them right now. Uh and so maybe that's why we're seeing a little bit of a move back up on the 102 curve back into shop shock territory around 53. But um yeah, that gives you a little rundown of what the hell's going on in the market today. And come on Q's, get to 627. & .
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