저자: Kevin-소속명확하지않음 · 외국인
요약 보기
유동성 위기('doom loop') 가능성을 경고. BofA 펀드매니저 서베이 현금비중이 3.8%로 하락해 매수 여력 감소 우려, 마이크로소프트 일봉 쌍봉·팔란티어 밸류에이션 과열, 민간신용(프라이빗 크레딧) 부실 신호(First Brands 사기), 레포 시장 스트레스 증가를 근거로 제시. 단기 낙관 여지는 있으나 중립에 가까운 입장. 마이크로스트래티지의 비트코인 매입은 자금조달 의존적이라 취약하다고 주장하며 트레저리 기업 붕괴 시 비트코인 실가치가 드러날 것이라고 봄. 비트코인에 대해 부정적 견해.
다듬은 글
Well, folks, we might be at the beginning of a doom loop of a liquidity crisis. And in this segment, we're going to explain what that means and what that could mean for the stock market. Now, we've been talking about these potential liquidity issues over the last few weeks on the channel. In fact, if you've been watching the warnings we've been talking about, none of this should be a surprise.
In fact, starting about 2 and 1/2 weeks ago, we started flagging the FMS, the Bank of America fund manager survey. Now, these are their words, not mine, but look at them yourself as a reminder. My keep in mind, these screenshots are all in the Meet Kevin app, which you can download for free on Apple or Android.
You get the daily wealth and the other. It's totally free. You can see them there. But anyway, the Bank of America fund manager survey average cash level has declined from 3.9 to 3.8%. This was posted October mid-occtober about October 16th. The sell signal for the Bank of America global fund manager survey was last triggered in July when cash fell from 4.2 to 4 uh 3.9%.
If we sit at or below 3.7, we move to a hard sell indicator. Now, right now, in the last survey that came out the last week of October, so fast forward about 2 weeks, we dropped all the way down to about 3.8%. Now, this is old news. We kind of already know this. I just want to catch you up on this. Usually when we get to these low levels of cash available, people start becoming frankly unable to buy the dip.
A recent example or actually a few recent examples of where we had more cash available to buy the dip and then we had Nike swoosh style recoveries were liberation day. We essentially Nike swoosh straight up from there, right? S&P up like 30 plus% from there. Cash was much more available. Take a look at October 22.
This is roughly when I bought my Nvidia shares, which you know are like massively up. Uh but I bought the dip on chip stocks in October of 22. In fact, I had a fund that was basically had a huge allocation to chips. And I'm like, guys, this is like we're in a chips recession. This is the perfect time to buy chips.
Look at where cash levels were in October of 22 around 6%. way higher than where we sit today or even the COVID low of April 20th. So, it gives you more recent sort of memory examples of when those cash levels are higher, we can usually sustain a larger rally up. Right now, we sit at a very low level, which roughly aligns with the end of 20121, roughly align with other pain points where historically stocks haven't necessarily performed the best.
It's only one signal. It's not the only signal. That's the Bank of America fund manager survey. Another signal that we paid attention to here we set up our strategy for the day. In fact, I'll I'll tell you what our course member strategy was this morning. You won't I'll just break it down for you. You can take it for what it was.
But one of the things we looked at this morning was actually a dangerous double top. Now, this is not broadly on an index. This double top that formed, this is just an example of this is a really low resolution crappy image of what a double top looks like. And then it usually continues with a fall off the cliff to the right side.
Right? This dangerous double top has actually formed on a company that I think is exceptionally profitable. It has a relatively low PEG ratio. we're at about a two. Uh so frankly, it has about 20 to 30% upside in the stock based on where its valuation sits and its growth forecast sits and where where uh forecast sit and and and where its margins are.
This is a a company that first of all, I highly respect the CEO of the valuation's bare. And what company just had a double top on the day chart? Microsoft. That is another indication of liquidity concerns going into of course the Palanteer earnings we had yesterday. There's a reason why in my video yesterday I called Palunteer earnings critical before the earnings came out because it's a sign of will there be enough liquidity to keep the pump going.
We've obviously extended on sort of this like euphoric tip over here and clearly the answer is no. There's not enough liquidity to keep the pump going. start adding these things together. This bizarre double top on Microsoft I don't think is idiosyncratic because when you look at the company itself the numbers are great.
So you have a double top on Microsoft you have a euphoric tip on the Q's you know your triple Q's your NASDAQ 100 tech index and on Palunteer. So you've got that euphoric kind of rotation up uh the double top on Microsoft with the euphoric rotation. Then you have the fund manager survey which is a red flag of liquidity.
Bitcoin, Bitcoin's price only moves because of liquidity. I will explain more on Bitcoin and Micro Strategy in a moment. And then number five catalyst is actually what's happening with funding rates uh especially at the Federal Reserve. Take a look at this. If you subtract the sofa rate from sort of base international rates, you could see the the delta of how liquidity is funding up or or drying up in the banking sector.
Now, this is actually a pretty big red flag, but it's early broadly. It's not enough of a liquidity issue yet. But here's the self self-fulfilling nature that could happen. The doomers point this out really well. They say liquidity concerns are the sort of thing that can become self-fulfilling. Even if an institution has ample liquidity on its own balance sheet, say let's say JP Morgan and Chase, stress elsewhere will lead to the tendency to hoard liquidity until there are better opportunities.
So, the problem with this credit cycle that we're in right now, which I didn't think would come this early, we know the cockroaches are a problem, but I thought we might still be okay until at least the government reopening. The problem that we face, though, is the sheer number of warnings we're getting on credit risks are becoming concerning.
And that's what's changing the game here. It's not just what you're seeing at the repo markets, which yesterday we had another surge in repo demand. Now, in the grand scheme of things, is $29 billion or $14 billion plus 7. Are these numbers? Well, I guess that's 49 versus, you know, 21 billion over here.
Are 49 to $21 billion of repo stress really that big of a deal? In the grand scheme of things, they're relatively small numbers, right? But you have to go all the way back to COVID to see the credit stress for any of this to actually matter. If we go back to or or or like 2008, you know, this is kind of when you start seeing credit stress because you have a big gap over here.
This literally jumps from 2018 to like 2019. So, we don't actually see I mean, there should be a giant white gap right there, but they just deleted that. I I don't know why they do that. But if you zoom in a little bit just to make the dates make a little bit more sense. There we go. You could see we've had no liquidity issues except for once very briefly right here this summer and that's it.
And lately they've been ramping up again like in co and that's why that delta chart is so concerning because it suggests that there could be a self-fulfilling start to credit concerns. See, UBS is warning of looming credit risks from credit ratings, which I hate to say it, but sounds very 2008esque.
He literally says there is now a growing chorus of voices pointing to risks in the multi-t trillion dollar credit rating industry and the insurance industry because basically rather than using big credit rating agencies like maybe standard and pores or Moody's or whatever rather than using the big and expensive companies you can actually now just call up quote small rating agencies to check the box of regulation.
and then just share those private ratings with certain issuers and investors to get debt or investments. And you don't actually have the reputation of a large credit agency anymore. You have the reputations of a bunch of small credit rating agencies rating debt, which just amplifies the potential risk of the credit the private credit bubble.
Now remember, people are like, "Oh, but private credit doesn't affect the banking system." Wrong. The IMF tells us that 90% of lending to private credit comes from big banks like JP Morgan and the other big boys. They just get done through convoluted uh you know, assortments of capital, which is scary.
So now what you have is not only thisricolor and first branch collapse or some of the other issues that you're finding in private credit. We just saw Renovo Homes go bankrupt taking out a bunch of uh you know uh smaller contractors in home renovations. But you're also finding that this is going so extreme that credit agencies were actually giving first brands uh and and their auditors were actually giving first brands good reviews, you know, good ratings, good audits or passing audits.
Mind you, First Brands didn't use a PCAOB audit, which I think is very important. This is your highest standard of auditing. They use lower standards of auditing. But look at this. The company First Brands is now literally suing their founder because the CEO funneled up to $700 million into his own mansion into his uh fleet of 17 exotic cars, a celebrity personal trainer, $3 million of luxury rent for a townhouse in New York, $500,000 to a private chef.
And what's concerning to me is not that that's the kind of scam that happened at first brands. It's that the nonPCAOB auditors apparently missed all of that. And apparently the credit rating agencies missed all of that. I mean, it goes so bad that they literally talk about certain invoices saying that, oh, First Brands actually sold products worth 11.2 2 million that you could finance against when the reality was the product was only worth $2.3 million.
That's a scam. That's fraud. It's no surprise that there's fraud here and the CEO, if this is true, should go to jail. The question is, or the bigger concern is, wait a minute, what if that means there's a lot more uncovered fraud like that everywhere else? And that's why you're starting to see these funding stresses create concerns because these are signs that other banking hold cash.
We're going to see how many cockroaches are out there. And once you get that tightening of credit, that's when the true problems happen. Now, we're not quite there yet. Excess liquidity, if we look at excess liquidity charts, we're flat on excess liquidity. So, it's not like we're super low on excess liquidity.
Uh and on top of that, we're not in this place where uh credit spreads are signaling some form of massive dry up in lending yet. You could see that here. Credit spreads are still relatively tight, which is bullish. You could see financing costs uh are are rising, but we're not like skyrocketing, and we're still seeing a generation of commercial and industrial loans.
The problem is this chart only goes through the third quarter. So we don't yet know what stresses are going to show up in October. So these are things to pay attention to. But we could see the seeds of a credit crisis and a liquidity crisis are real. So what did we talk about in the alpha report this morning?
Well, I made uh a a a I had a very clear we spent probably about 30 minutes coming up with a strategy uh you know in the actual stream. Uh, and obviously it took me a lot longer to to prepare it before my stream because I try to go into the streams prepared. So when people come to the alpha report, we're like, "Okay, Kevin's already gonna start by talking about here's the game plan for today." And that's basically what we do.
So, you know, we start our course member live stream, we go live, uh, and I break down here's the game plan for today. Here's what's going on. Here's what you got to watch for. You know, here are the traps and here's my strategy. So, what I said in the alpha report this morning, uh, which you can get that at meetke.com.
We've got like a quiet code that you could use. It's NVDA for Nvidia earnings coming up. It's going to be a bigger deal next week and the week after when we get towards Nvidia earnings, which is really the end of our catalyst for earnings, by the way. They actually had pretty damn good earnings. Like, Palanteer earnings were good.
It's just their valuation is kooky. The only way you could keep the valuation going is by having loose liquidity. So anyway, the strategy we had this morning was we need to see if the Q's can make it to 6:30, otherwise bearish. So what happened? We made it to 627 and then we started bleeding. Volume started declining.
The cues gave up. We're basically at the same places where we were at the open. And our strategy was I'm not interested in buying the dip unless we can prove 6:30 because proving 6:30 means we have enough liquidity in the market. If we lose 630 or we have a have a selloff at either the end or beginning of the day that that exacerbates liquidity stress because now people are like crap I got to pay off margin I got to pay off debt and they don't have money to buy the dip.
Then you could actually end up getting more of a dip over time. So, that's just an example of what we talk about uh in the alpha report and how we set that up this morning. And so far, that seems to be exactly what's going on. Now, what does this broadly mean? Well, near-term, we shouldn't really be having a sell-off on fear over jobs.
I mean, in fairness, the ADP report expectations are all over the place for tomorrow. ADP expectations literally imply that no one has a clue. Like, I literally wrote that here. Nobody has a clue. Now, standard deviation on this is 27 thou. I'm sorry, it's less than that. I think it's I can't remember what the st actually might be 27,000, but let me check.
The expectation is that we're going to get a 40,000 jobs read on ADP, but look at how diffuse the economist estimates are for ADP. You've got some people sitting at 60, 64, 68, which would be great, but you've got some economists at - 20,000. You know, any negative read would be terrible. But there's no consistency here on what people think.
It shows that people are even more confused with what's going to happen. The standard deviation, yeah, it's 26,000 uh 470. All right. So about 27,000 26,000 whatever 6 or 7 somewhere in there. Um so the estimates are all over the place. This data comes out at 5:15 in the morning tomorrow. I don't think that this is why the market is concerned though.
Now, if we get a really bad ADP report, you know, if we come in under zero tomorrow, it's going to be bad. Uh, anything over zero is actually positive tomorrow because we'll be within break evens. But if we get something uh that's negative, then there's a real sign that we've done an oopsy-doopsies with the Fed and they are behind.
See, I I tweeted this yesterday. You can follow me there at Realme Kevin if you want, but anyway. Wow. first person at the Fed who understands this and it's quote Fed Daily says if you wait for the job market report to show weakness you're already behind correct you're already behind what are we seeing on is showing us us that at the end of September and at the beginning of October we're starting to see pickups in unemployment filings in addition to that we had a lot of layoffs in October now what happens when you have a stable stabilized job openings rate and layoffs rise.
Well, when you have a stable openings rate and layoffs rise, the only place this curve goes, these purple dots start going to the right and then you get what's called the normalization of the beverage curve, which is bad because when the curve starts going out to the right, the unemployment rate skyrockets fast, like really, really rapidly.
you don't actually need to see much of a decline anymore in the job openings rate. You just need to see layoffs and then the skyrockets to the right really fast. So, broadly uh this this liquidity issue that we're facing is all related in my opinion to private credit. And because of these private credit issues, you're seeing less support for Michael Sailor's Bitcoin buying strategy.
Literally, his company is now named Strategy. Uh so if you look at what Michael Sailor is doing, uh you can see that Michael Sailor just as based on this quote tweet here acquired 45.6 million worth of Bitcoin at 114,000. Okay, fine. So we're down 14% on that, but whatever. They're they're still up on their average cost, right?
Their average cost is $75,000. And they don't really have bonds due for a few years anyway. So, you would really have to see a true collapse in the price of Bitcoin to see Michael Sailor have any problems. Now, I personally think, and this is my opinion, this pisses off a lot of people in crypto, but I hate to say it.
I personally think the only way you get to the true value of Bitcoin is when the treasury companies go bust. I hate to say that. I hate to say it. I've been saying it for years. And that's not to say like I'm bearish or or making a directional bet in the short term. It's just to say that once that liquidity support dries up in crypto, that's when you actually get to more of the true value of what Bitcoin's true value actually is because you lose that order book support.
You have to think about all these treasury companies as really like peg legs propping up the value of Bitcoin, not actual like demand. Because what you're doing is you're you're you're breaking the piggy bank, which is a piggy bank that doesn't last forever, right? You are taking the piggy bank of the stock and you are breaking the piggy bank of the stock to fund Bitcoin purchases, but it doesn't last forever.
What happens when the piggy bank runs out of shares to liquidate? Like in other words, the shares go to a very low value. Then you can't pay your debts back. Then you go bankrupt. then you don't support the purchases of Bitcoin. Then you might actually have to start selling Bitcoin just to pay back your debts and then you have problems.
Obviously, that's like the doomer bear scenario. But the point is that if you actually look at the numbers at Micro Strategy, you could see that fundamentally the business cannot pay all of these payments based on the money they make. First of all, look at this. the dividends on just the preferred stock alone in the last three months.
Three months of dividends for their preferred strategies and in their other funds and you know strike and the other you know Strive and all these other like feeder funds that they've created their gross profits on their software of $90 million their gross profits do not cover their dividends on preferred stock alone.
Now, if you actually look at net income, oh, it's even worse. Now, I'm not going to use the unrealized loss here on digital assets, but if I look at their net income, I could take 90.6 minus 29.9 for sales and marketing minus 22.6 minus 38.1. It's literally zero. What did I do that math wrong or is that literally zero?
I mean, mental check here. 40 60 30 60 plus 30 is 90. Yeah, dude. If you literally take gross profit and subtract just sales and marketing research and development GNA, it's literally zero. So, they make no money, which we could have already known that by going to the cash flow statement. You know, the cash flow statement makes this obvious.
Their cash from operations is $45 million. Their free cash flow is $72 million in 9 months. And the only reason they were able to buy $19 billion of Bitcoin, which they were able to purchase right here, is because they got proceeds from convertible notes at $2 billion, proceeds from selling preferred stock under the other entities that they have, and proceeds from selling Micro Strategy stock.
So, in other words, if Micro Strategy stock goes down, the peg leg of Bitcoin liquidity is gone and then it goes down. It's really simple. Liquidity is nothing more than an order book. You have to understand order books to understand liquidity. I don't know that I really want to explain order books right now, so I probably won't.
But if you don't understand how an order book works, maybe start there. Okay, we actually talked about that this morning in the course member live stream, but that's more educational. You're welcome to watch that. Um, it's mekevin.com. But I think another and this is I don't know if this is another symptom of liquidity but I want to mention it.
So I think another symptom of liquidity could be that we're seeing a lot of people diversify into house hack. Now I'm not trying to make that a pitch and just to be clear like you go to . Okay. But I believe that what we're seeing is this skyrocketing of of investments into house hack. Uh partly because people look at it and go it's you know it's based on the company's valuation is based on an August of 2024 valuation.
So imagine the stock market was frozen in August of 2024 when the company had way more expenses and way fewer assets and no AI strategy. And that's what people are investing in at now, including myself. Like I'm buying shares before the end of the year cuz I'm like, "This is great, right? It's like this frozen in time valuation." And so I think because people know that and they know it's backed by real estate, they look and go, "Okay, well, we're going to diversify away from stocks at all-time highs." And so when we get these red days, people are diversifying away.
They're like, "I need to diversify." And so on these red days, I I feel like it's like a liquidity signal. People are like, "Okay, it's red. Take some money off the table. Let's diversify a bit. And who knows, maybe they're using some else to pay down cash or or pay down debt or or hold cash or whatever.
I don't know. But, you know, we raised $ 1.5 million last month, which is insane. I think that was like our our highest month this year since we started. I think maybe second highest. Uh and then, yeah, I think I probably crossed half a million today for November cuz we were over $400,000 for the first three days.
That's Saturday, Sunday, Monday. We're over 400 grand, which is wild. Which it, you know, on one hand, you could argue, wait, doesn't that imply more liquidity? Maybe. But I actually think it's people selling other assets and diversifying away from things at all-time highs like what we saw with the Palunteer numbers, right?
We went into Palunteer with a euphoric spike and like an eight peg and a lot of trader momentum. So, it's no surprise that you're moving down on Palunteer post even good earnings. But this is a sign of liquidity. If people had more cash, the stock should be going up on those earnings, not down, which is convenient for Michael Bur because obviously Michael Bur, you know, he's now shorting Nvidia and Palunteer, but he disclosed his shorts as of I believe September 30th, the end of the end of Q3, which means he's actually still upside down on his shorts if he had those shorts as of September 30th, assuming he bought them the very last day of the quarter, because Nvidia and Palanteer are still up from the end of that.
But some people see that as potentially a sign that Michael Bur thinks this is the next bubble. I don't know what would give that away. Maybe this, you know, post about the capital cycle ends with a shakeout and a consolidation. Okay, basically how everything is leveraged to the tits. I mean, I showed Palunteer's assets yesterday and I don't know what people were talking about with leverage to the tits.
All I saw was leaked footage of Palunteer's balance sheet. And all I have to say is bam, those assets are hot. Okay, that's it. That's all I got to say about Palanteer. The assets were hot. Beautiful balance sheet. I mean, nobody knows the balance sheet better than I do. &. Michael Burray tells us that growth rates for the prior 5 years at companies like Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft have basically peaked.
Microsoft actually being the least of the issues in terms of declines relative to 23, 4, and 5. So he's arguing that people are taking on all these billions of dollars of debt via bonds or feeder fund bonds or whatever to fund this capex cycle while their actual cloud segment year-over-year growth is collapsing relative to the historic average.
Now in fairness, you know, back in 2018 to 22, those were COVID days. So your average could be pumped up by COVID numbers, right? So maybe it's not that fair to compare to those periods of time. But, you know, this gives you sort of a balanced view on Michael Bur here. Now, of course, I can't reply or quote tweet any of these damn Bur posts short of taking a screenshot because the bastard blocked me.
The bastard blocked me because I showed him an eggplant. That's it. I I replied to him with an eggplant emoji and I got blocked. So, who's the real weenie baby here? Anyway, all of it right now expects like markets expect that liquidity can keep booming. I mean, look at this. Anthropic projects 70 billion in revenue, 17 billion in cash flow in 28.
Dude, people are pulling numbers out of their ass to keep numbers going. Now maybe it'll keep going but you know to project out three years or four years or five years for LLM products that could become commoditized just like Satya Nadellop warns when the CEO of Microsoft is saying all your crap might become commoditized but we're going to make money off the commodity anyway because we're going to be farmers like the the farmers farming soybeans.
It's kind of a warning sign that maybe some of those numbers are just speculative pie in the sky numbers, but people are in pain. How do we know people are in pain? Well, because CZ tells us that when Bitcoin's down 13.7% from all-time highs yesterday, he tells us that people are in pain. But then again, Donald Trump doesn't know CZ.
So maybe maybe uh you know even though he got pardoned by Donald Trump and even though CZ is helping fund and promote the World Liberty financial scam I mean token uh which is basically bailed out by the feeder fund called Alt 5 which is also a scam. I mean it's a publicly listed stock which happens to have a support level at zero because I expect it's going to go bankrupt and delist because it's a scam.
I mean because it's it's you know it's just going to come upon hard times. uh you know we we really end up with a big question of do people have I mean this is what it all boils down to do people have money to buy the dip or not and unfortunately if banks tighten tighten lending because of this private credit crap we haven't seen it yet but we we're starting to see it the signs are starting to come then unfortunately even short-term bullishness could be misplaced now you know I'm not like a 10 out of 10 on the bare bull scale.
I'm pretty mid-range. The reason I'm mid-range is because I believe in the short term absent, you know, some credit crisis. We should still be bullish until the government at least reopens because we just have a lack of data. Uh and there really are good earnings. But what's weird is we're now coming off really good earnings and big credit warning signs.
Now, a lot of people discounted this October 1st. uh 31st spike and they said, "Oh, but Kevin, that was just because of the end of the month." Fine. Then how do you explain November 3rd's spike at roughly half of that spike. Sure, it's not as high, but it's still way higher than what we've seen. So, take the end of the month out.
Yesterday was literally the highest spike here, and this spike is still growing. You can't really look at this one yet. You have to wait until tomorrow to see the full funding for November 4th, which makes intuitive sense. The day ain't over yet. So, how do we know how much funding has been used yet?
So, broadly, there are real issues. Liquidity is the name of the game. In order for stalks to keep going up, you need buyers. In order for Bitcoin to keep going up, you need buyers. But margin is at all-time highs. What if everybody's already margined max level margin and we just can't do any more margin?
then there's no more money. I can't tell you how many of these brokerage apps, uh, you know, Robin Hood included, send notifications going, "Hey, guess what just went down because the Fed cut margin rates? Want some margin?" It's insane. You know, Robin Hood will show you your buying power is like 4x your cash.
And these are like crazy numbers. Like I think I my buying power on Robin Hood. Just the Robin Hood app. It says my buying power is like 30 or $40 million or whatever it is. I'm like this is Like that's exactly how to go bankrupt is is maximizing your buying power and then the market hits a down cycle.
It's insane. That's just Robin Hood. You know, I see it on the other apps too. I get the notifications on the other apps that I use. I'm like, this is crazy. So, um, it makes sense. Now, here's the strategy that I would watch for. Okay, so here's the game plan. All right, the game plan is simple. To understand the game, got to make it to the end of the me videos.
Uh, but here's my take on the game plan. So, first things first, show up tomorrow at 5:15 a.m., okay? Come to the live stream and then join the Alpha Report uh at meetke.com. You know, you could use that code invid video. All right. So, tomorrow we have the 80p stream. My opinion is that if we get uh anything under 20k is immediately uh going to be seen as recessionary, very bearish.
Okay. Now, uh sorry, anything under negative 20K. My bad. I didn't mean to put the dollar sign there. Anything under negative 20,000 is immediately going to be seen as recessionary. Okay. Anything close to zero will be seen as acceptable. Okay. And uh anything let's go. So this would be more like plus or minus.
Let's go plus minus. Uh and then anything over 20k is bullish GDP. bullish uh bearer bull scale um you know neutral on rates but uh you know bullish economic growth and soft landing or you know whatever we want to call it right so uh the current estimate is 40k which suggests uh we are going in bullish so the uh surprise factor uh will be the uh left tail, right?
So, uh down the the surprise factor is leaning to the downside tomorrow because estimates are already so enthusiastic, right? Uh that's not great, but who knows? I mean, we'll see. We saw that the estimates are very very diffuse, but that's the strat. Now, the other thing that you need to watch for is you need to watch for institutional liquidity.
Then watch institutional liquidity. What's institutional liquidity? Institutional liquidity is uh market on open and market on close trades. So like if you see a giant tank at the open or close, that's a sign of a lack of institutional liquidity, it is a red flag. If you see a benign close inflows into the close, it means people have money.
This is why today I said in the Alpha Report super clearly to everybody who's part of it, thank you for being a part of it. Um, by the way, people have been asking in email, they're like, "Okay, like like is there going to be a better price Black Friday?" We guarantee that if you buy the Alpha Report now there, like you will have the best price.
So whatever whatever happens Black Friday, that's that's worth knowing like you you'll be guaranteed in at the best price. Um, so anyway, the the reason we wanted to watch 630 was because it's not uncommon to get these sort of like faint-hearted buy the dips right here. You really need to confirm that into the close.
So, if we can rally into the close, great. Happy with liquidity. It's a great positive sign. If we can't rally into the close and we actually bleed into the close, it just amplifies the liquidity issue. The same will be true tomorrow except tomorrow's will be amplified by the ADP report. There you go.
So, um there we go. That gives you a nice breakdown of exactly what's going on. So, somebody here writes, "My broker is prompting me to link my other accounts to expand my margin even in Canada." Wow, dude. So if you link your other brokerages, they're basically saying, "Hey, we'll go lend against the securities in those other brokerages as well, so you can maximize your margin over here." Man, that just sounds like a disaster because what if they have to liquidate cross brokerages?
Oh man. Dude, dude, it's the brokers and the FINRA system itself that's margin so badly. That doesn't make any sense. The brokers and FINRA don't take out debt for you. You take out debt. That's not a logical argument. Just because the system says, "Hey, Kevin, come squeeze these titties doesn't mean I'm going to do it." Because it's going to bad be bad for my marriage and my children.
I mean, for if you take out all that margin, it's bad for your brokerage account, right? Like just because the opportunity exists doesn't mean you squeeze the squos. Crazy crazy thought, right? Uh so let's see what else you saying. Some of you have Michael Bur comments. Definitely liquidity. Cash and cash equivalents are running like a dick in bonds.
Ah yeah yeah and and and keep in mind that uh it is a little bit of a confusing signal that we are seeing so many inflows with house hack because like if liquidity is drying up you know why are house hack inflows so high I I I believe it's because like if people say hey stocks at alltime highs I'm going to sell $500,000 of Nvidia let's say at a profit and I'm going to put 100k into house I think that's what's happening like I the reason I think we see more liquidity is because people a want to diversify, b they want that that valuation from AUG 24 uh and c it's kind of just part of like a broader cash raise strategy.
Like when stocks are going straight up, you don't and there's so much liquidity, you kind of just like keep going with the boom of the ride of stocks going to the moon. Uh so so I think that it's it's a little bit of a complicated like it's not as clear with a private equity uh offering. Uh, somebody says, "Bro, with a woman, as a woman, please enough with the tatas." Hey, hey, I'm just not going to say anything.
Um, anyway, so where were we? I think we were here. Welcome. Nice to have you. So, .
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