Tom Lee & Cathie Wood: Will Ethereum Overtake Bitcoin?

요약 보기

암호화폐 생태계가 2030년 25조 달러에 이를 것으로 전망하며, 대부분은 비트코인이 차지한다고 봄. 1971년 금본위제 폐지 이후 달러 패권과 월가 상품 확장 사례를 들어, 토큰화 시대에는 이더리움이 비트코인을 시가총액에서 역전할 수 있다는 가설을 제시. 다만 본인은 여전히 비트코인 강세론자이며 비트코인 적정가치를 150만~210만 달러로 제시.

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01. been saying is you think that the Ethereum network or market cap uh is going to flip with Bitcoin. Now, Bitcoin is at about what is it? 2.4 trillion now, somewhere around there. And Ethereum is 540 billion. You think there is a flippening, as they might say. Uh I'd love to hear you talk about it. But just to set this up, anyone who's listening to this podcast knows that um we have in 2030 a forecast of the entire crypto asset ecosystem.

02. And of course, we're going to be modifying this with time. We're doing our our big ideas work now, but as of uh our last um go at this, you know, the ecosystem we expect to hit 25 trillion dollars in 2030. The vast majority of that uh in Bitcoin. Uh mostly because we we look at Bitcoin as you know, a global monetary system, you know, rules-based that we've been missing since the US went off the gold exchange standard in 1971.

03. That's a very big idea. It's a technology uh obviously, and it is the first of its kind, and we wrote a paper in 2016 on this. First of its kind in a new asset class. So, those are three very big ideas. Um I'd love to hear your thoughts on why ETH uh or the ecosystem will will surpass Bitcoin. Okay.

04. Well, if I could rewind a little bit to 1971 uh in our chairman's message last month, we addressed how gold versus Wall Street grew post-1971. So, 1971 was when Nixon formally withdrew the US from the gold standard. The immediate beneficiary was there was demand and a market to own gold. And so, people would say that was your you know, first implication.

05. But when what we wrote about and talked about in that message was that in 1971 the dollar became fully synthetic because it was no longer backed by anything. And so, there was risk that the world would go off the dollar standard. So, in stepped Wall Street to create products to propagate the future of Wall Street, including and we listed I think 14 products that emerged over the next decade from money market funds to credit to mortgage-backed securities to futures, etc.

06. And dollar dominance by the end of that period went from 27% of GDP terms but to 57% of central bank reserves and 80% of financial transaction quotes. So, Wall Street was created products that made the dollar dominant and the market cap of equities um today is 40 trillion compared to 2 trillion for gold.

07. So, in other words, gold is 5% of all available assets. And so, in 2025, we think everything is now becoming synthetic as we are tokenized, sorry, not synthetic. So, as we move not just dollars onto the blockchain, which is stable coins, but we'll move stocks and real estate dollar dominance is going to be the opportunity of Ethereum.

08. So, digital gold is Bitcoin. And so, in that world, we believe Ethereum could flip Bitcoin similar to how Wall Street and equities flipped gold um post-71. Now, that is just our working theory cuz I am still a Bitcoin bull. So, I'm very bullish on Bitcoin, and I I believe your uh targets for Bitcoin are actually reachable.

09. So, I you know, we think Bitcoin fair value should at least be 1.5 to 2.1 million. But we can see higher values, but that would of course provide upside to a a neutral smart contract platform where a lot of Wall Street will innovate of real world assets.