저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
SPY 등 지수가 단기 고점을 형성 중이며 30분/2시간봉 다중 다이버전스로 하락 위험이 크다고 주장. 변동성(VIX)은 일일 다이버전스 확인 상태이고 내재변동성이 낮아 갑작스러운 큰 움직임 가능성을 언급. 개별 종목으로 테슬라·아마존·엔비디아·AMD·메타·AMC는 약세 또는 조정 신호, 10년물 금리는 단기 반등 가능성 언급. 유료 멤버십(Patreon) 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Ever since we called out the scenario one 2hour higher low, we have been running and running and running. And last week during Vixiration, you heard me suggesting watch if we do something different this time than we did last time. And you see after Vixir, we are doing something different. And we even broke down how this thing would like to tear down in the near price action on Patreon.
And it looks like that has shaped up for us today. So say a big thank you to volatility for giving us the signals and say thank you to the spy for today because now it's very risky and it looks like as volatility stands we are making a top in the very very near future and it might be in right now. So let's look at it.
We are going to go over these bigger time frames later on on Saturday. So make sure you are subscribed. But I wanted to talk about what we were talking about yesterday on Patreon. How this thing would really like to break down. and I didn't have time to put together a full YouTube video. I apologize for that.
But Patreon members, hopefully you enjoyed today's price action because we were mentioning how volatility was saying, "Hey, okay, the spy kind of wiped out those signals, but the spy could be FOMO trying to jump in and volatility is still suggesting, hey, we have oursel a top forming by Tuesday." We even said black, what is it?
Black Tuesday over the weekend if you were paying attention. What is going on right now? Well, the way that this was breaking down and how we were suggesting to look at it on the spy was pay attention to the price action, right? Pay attention to the previous low, see if that low is broken, then we get some kind of deadcap bounce.
I really thought we would spend a little bit more time down here to get to that daily move before bouncing, but now you are just seeing this counter trend type of move uh about to go into the downward momentum. And you see this flagging here. So, it looks like we might be at risk of dropping one more time.
Now you do see something interesting down here. You see that the 30-inut MACD was able to curl up just for a brief moment at the end of the day. That is on a negative bar. So we will take that with a grain of salt. The funny thing here is people are still overall according to volatility taking calls a month out.
So this is very very likely that we could have the top in right now. If the 30 minute is able to curl up with a solid green bar, it tells us that the daily expected move of 63240 to the upside is something that we should be watching. look for that to extend, but you have very good sellers all the way up.
So, rejection at any point and it looks like you are very likely to potentially roll this kind of move. How I would look at this market for now is just looking at the 2-hour chart and saying, hey, we are pointing out the multiple point divergence. Still holding on the MACD, by the way, the triple divergence still holding on the MACD.
We did see a slight upward move to violate that, but this could be multiple point. So we will always be open to this trying to extend in some way. But for now you would say this is the confirmation of a signal and nothing has really gone wrong here. So the direction for now is hey we have potential to lose that five tomorrow.
And that's what I'm really paying attention to. If the 2hour is able to curl up at any point you would say hey there is potential to test the high go make a new one at the weekly expected move. But we have to see tomorrow's price action. So, for now, we have the setup, the left, the head, the right shoulder on the 30 minute to tear us down to that weekly expected move.
And I wanted to point out something very interesting. Something I think a little bit worse is coming. I think there's going to be a moment where a day where we just like see a gap in one direction, something big just because the implied volatility is not increasing whatsoever. Even though we are getting this volatile day in some way, we're not necessarily seeing that produce like, hey, this is some kind of uh big big move to the downside, right?
We're overall looking at this and going implied volatility is still low. So, something surprising is very close to coming. And let's go check out the Q's. The Q's you see multiple point divergence all around this. We will look for that extension higher. But the best thing for the QES is to get you guys some daily expected news right off the bat here.
564.92 to the upside. 55758 to the downside. The 2hour has confirmed all the divergence here again, right? We have confirmed that we have multiple point and you're holding these two points. So very interesting time for the 2-hour chart. It keeps getting those squeezelike behavior. But doesn't this look pretty flaggy going into the end of the day?
You have a wave of sellers here. You have broken the previous low. You have even gone below the five. If you roll that one more time, that's going to be a recipe for bad things. Now, we will always have that 1% guy on our shoulder just in case we are wrong. But this is how we would like to most likely set up that top with the lower high at this moment.
So, this looks like flagging in some way. If that is able to break to the downside, I I think we might be in for something coming uh that is a little bit more dramatic because of the implied volatility. If the 30-minute though is able to curl up, you do have your daily expected move to the upside of 56492.
Okay. So, if you're able to get a good confirmation early on in the morning, you can ride that up to these levels. If you reject and turn down, you are just going to be crossing down really, really close to the center line. And that's going to be the lower high scenario that we talked about over on Patreon.
You're more than welcome to join the Patreon. We're putting out a lot of information uh intraday for those members. It is down in the description. It is only $7 a month if you'd like to join. If not, hey, we're right here on YouTube for you. Now we're going to talk about the interesting thing which is volatility is still holding the daily divergence.
Okay, we have daily divergence all across this MACD and RSI. This is why we have been suggesting watch out for a top uh very very soon and we even pointed out this morning being a day of black Tuesday. We pointed that out over the weekend. So, something interesting here is we have to see if this is going to flip back up because the 2-hour actually was able to get a confirmation down here, which isn't necessarily the best thing, but we keep seeing that we make new high, we make new high, and then we come back down into those buyers, right?
So, overall, that's how you would treat it. As far as price action goes, this would be a great level to get to. Um, for now, you would say if the 30-minut is able to curl up here, we are going to most likely see a bigger wave of volatility. And that's how I would look at it at this point. If it's some kind of dud and fails, that's when I would say we actually might squeeze higher at this point.
So, it is going to going to be a bit of a back and forth kind of kind of day tomorrow. Really paying attention to, hey, are we are we doing this or are we doing that and then curling back down and that's just the truth of it. But the big thing here is don't let anything I just said get into your head too far because really the big thing here is you have daily divergence confirmed.
you have daily divergence confirmed. If you roll on the spy, say tomorrow, and you see something a little crazier to the downside, this can get pretty bad. Where do I think volatility will end up getting to? I think that we're going to see something some overreaction and I think we could see this gap up here towards 3760 filled.
So that means for the spy, I think that if we're able to tear down with a in a little bit more dramatic fashion during one of these days of this week, then it would be potentially tomorrow and then we would actually see this breakdown like break down into these areas, get down to here by Thursday or Friday.
Then we get some kind of bounce that sets up the left, the head, and the right shoulder for the spy. I will be updating Patreon thoroughly throughout the uh throughout the day just to make sure that everyone is kind of in line with how the market is overall reacting. But for now, it looks like the bears might have a chance to take control, complete control tomorrow.
We do see looks like this that look like, hey, we're ramping up, right? We're we're trying to ramp up for Apple for the time being, and that's fantastic. It's a great thing. But if you are able to turn this 2hour down, it's not necessarily going to be a good thing at this point. And if you look over at the 30 minute, you're going to see that even if we get a slight upward move here, watch out for any kind of 30-minute divergence is what I would overall say about Apple.
Nothing here is necessarily bearish. No bearish confirmations or anything like that, but this is one that you could keep an eye on. Maybe keep an eye on a weekly expected move and say, "Hey, do I see reversal signals in this area?" because the SPY is overall potentially topping at this point. Tesla, if we go take a look at that, remember we talked about the extension, we get some kind of extension here.
We were able to go high enough that we got two little curls. You do notice that there is divergence here. If Tesla is able to curl the 30 minute down here, that would suggest that the 2-hour can pull back. This is the weird thing about Tesla. Tesla is not necessarily in a spot where it can go through something like terrible, but at the same time, it's Tesla.
Tesla has some of the highest implied volatility and see some of the craziest moves and retail really likes it. So, the 2-hour would suggest the technicals here. Let's just go through the technicals. Nothing to do with my opinion. the technicals with a MACD in this area with an RSI in this area with 30-minute divergence would say yes we are going to reverse that 30-inut trend but the 2hour could just pull back maybe to take care of a gap and then it's able to turn to the upside and that has me questioning whether or not the market is actually going to curl down.
Let's draw a little little smiley face here maybe uh if the market's actually going to curl down or if Tesla has some kind of short seller problem and is going to squeeze. Amazon was able to get to our 229 but actually wiped out a divergence on the MAC or on the RSI. I apologize but we do notice that it is holding the original point a little bit flat there.
So we will treat this very cautiously. The MACD is overall suggesting hey I held my divergence point. If I can confirm down tomorrow that means that it is closer and closer to the center line which means you are more and more likely to see a big drop aka the daily scale. The daily scale is curling up, curling down, curling up, curling down.
We're just setting up a bunch of divergence as we get to our 229. Nice that we were able to get there. That's where we were looking. Uh but this really looks like Amazon with the daily divergence with the daily divergence all across the RSI is coming into a point of major weakness. This is where we can get a pretty sizable retracement for Amazon, especially with this type of signal where this could need to break down for a while over time before it's able to curl up.
And you notice that that would go into September. If you were paying attention to September, then you would be paying attention to rate cuts in September. It is a high probability that we will see some kind of rates cut in September. Nvidia was able to get a solid cross down on the 2-hour. Now, you look at the or the daily, the daily.
You look at the daily, you're just going, you know, this is most likely going to be a pullback. It can be more dramatic or something like that, but you really would be paying attention to 14350. If you go look at the 2-hour chart, we were pointing out the fact that there's just divergence all across this.
Yes, it extended for a long period of time, uh, but it's holding all across that RSI, just very flat. And in the near price action, you actually had a divergence that told you that this thing was uh going to get a little bit weak here. And you'll see that divergence back here on the MACD. You'll really see this and go, "Okay, that is confirming.
We'll see if it can go for one more leg." Oh, it did not. It never curled back up into positive territory. Now you are negative. So if you are negative in these areas and you're below the five, you're much more likely to keep rejecting. Okay? So Nvidia is in a downtrend on the 30 minute and you see that the 2-hour is just pointing straight down.
The way that Nvidia is able to go up from here is it has to take back that five, get a pullback, and then cross up the 2hour on the MACD. That's going to take a lot of work at this point. And I don't know if people are uh necessarily going to be bullish on this with this kind of look. So, I'm not necessarily ever counting out Nvidia.
I never really like short Nvidia or anything like that because it likes to go up most of the time. But for right now, it looks like you have some major weakness and you are going to get your daily pullback. AMD, this is one that we were questioning because the 2-hour is so extended. Now, it is two-hour divergence.
You see that on your MACD, kind of flat, a little bit down. You see that on your RSI, a little bit more significant than the MACD. But if the 2-hour is able to hold in a good spot, this is a very, very good level for price action to get to for buyers to step in. The 2-hour can still curl up maybe one more time, look for weakness.
Once again, a lot of short seller problem type plays, a lot of short interest type plays are popping off. That's why you saw Kohl's pop off today. One that we were talking about like about a month ago, suggesting it's it's in a decent spot. But overall, these things are starting to pop. So, you have to look out for those kinds of things.
That means if momentum does turn up, I don't want especially on a 2-hour, I don't necessarily want to be in puts, but you do have a divergence here that is suggesting that AMD, if it doesn't have any kind of problem like that, if it's not going to see momentum shift up again, then it is very likely to pull back into 13850.
very likely for that. I actually think that it is more likely to chop through that and actually end up down towards 115 towards what? Oh, look at that. September, midepptember would be a very interesting place to be looking at things like AMD if we start to tear down from here. Now, we get to meta on the daily scale, which actually has like some flat daily divergences and overall has been kind of like sluggish to the downside.
But I want you to pay attention to the shorter time frames in here and just see this 2hour. The 2-hour is not in a place where it says, "Oh yeah, I'm looking very very good to see some kind of big move to the upside. If anything, it kind of teaches you how once you lose the five pretty significantly, yeah, we're taking it back, but we lose it again and you you're very likely to create uh lower highs when you are down in negative territory for the MACD.
So, as this is potentially rolling, we can see that head down to lower levels. If you make a divergence, we can see if that daily can cross back up, right? We're not some We're not people who just have a bias. We just look at the signals. That's at least that's what I try to do. I really try my best to not let my own bias get into things.
I overall in my trading just say, "Hey, this is what I think, but I'm not going to go and take a place based on what I think. I'm going to play something based on what is confirming in front of me." Meta is in a negative trend as of right now on the 2-hour. Meta can reject from these levels. Meta did retest a level and could just reject from that and keep stairs stepping down.
And even if we get some kind of counter move here, watch out for the left head and right shoulder because Meta is very likely to go down to lower levels. If you look at the 30-inut chart, we also will talk about the bullish side. You did see a move above the five. You did dip back down into those buyers.
So, it's not necessarily a bad thing. Something that you could look out for here is if the 30 minutes able to curl up. Oh, we're going to the upside and it needs to really go to the upside. If it only goes slightly to the upside, we could just be doing something like this at this point. You see a little 30-minute divergence, it rejects.
Guess what? That's your hint for the 2-hour curling back down. So, keep your eye on Meta AMC. Now, this is very, very good for AMC to do this little thing right here. Cuz what do I say about short squeeze plays? Well, they can set up that divergence, but usually you'll see that kind of signal and that signal has to fail.
You actually saw some of that with Kohl's, by the way. if uh maybe we'll look at that over on Patreon or something like that or maybe in tomorrow's video. Uh you will notice here that there's divergence on the RSI. So that you know AMC relatively over the last couple of years, every single time it's seen a two-hour divergence, the daily has crossed down.
So you're seeing the 2-hour divergence now. It's not on the MACD at the same time. So that's the difference here. We could see one more upside move that sets up some kind of trap. But if you really want a squeeze here, you need to see a bad signal like this just get wiped out and see a crazy move to the upside.
Look at Kohl's for an example. The 2-hour here is suggesting that the daily can cross down, but we haven't seen that yet. We haven't even lost the five yet. And overall on the 30-inut chart, you're by that center line and you are curled up. So, this is a good thing. you would want to be paying attention to tomorrow's price action because if that 30 minute rolls back down, loses, makes a new low, it's not going to make divergence or anything like that.
I think it is more likely that the 2-hour divergence is calling this right. So, just be aware of that for uh AMC. As far as GME goes, I just said GMI goes, my GM goes, you know, um as far as GME, what I was pointing out over the weekend was the recipe for success is not here. Your daily scale is not in positive territory curled up, but you are curled up.
Okay. Um, what do we want to see for this thing to have a sh chance to go positive on the daily scale? You want a 2hour to curl up into positive territory. And now you do have that. So the recipe would say check mark here, kind of a half check on the daily and a check mark here for the 30 minute because all you want to see is a 30 minute just not even roll back down.
You you really want this to just keep going. um especially towards the end of the week, you want to see big upside moves for this two squeeze. So that's how you'd really take it for GME. You have the recipe for success. I would say in if you're doing like out of three, you have about a 2.5 out of three for the recipe for success.
And all you look for is when that goes wrong. One of the last things I wanted to point out as far as yields go is the 2-hour divergence for the 10-year yield here is showing up. And that is right when it has come down down down for a period of time two-hour divergence here. It has not confirmed but this would suggest that we are about to see another 4hour move to the upside.
Now this is very very likely to as we are negative. You want to be paying attention to lower highs. That means we could see some kind of look like this. But overall you would say okay what's really breaking down those yields? Is it people talking about weakness in economy and blah blah blah? You'd have to look at those type of things.
But I just wanted to point out the 10-year yield, how the 2-hour is suggesting the 4hour could get a move. If that's able to take back the five and get a big move, we might be right back on that horse to keep heading to the upside for the 10-year yield. As we look at the spy, let's just give you guys kind of the main takeaway.
The main takeaway here is, hey, if the 2hour is really going to break down here, then what we would want to see is the 30 minute continue the move exactly how we suggested. We actually would like to see volatility increase pretty dramatically here. get some kind of deadcap bounce and then be able to reject again to give you the head and shoulders to the downside.
If we are going to end up in the upward direction, well then the two-hour momentum will shift back up. We will start to violate divergence and we will raise that floor. The 30-inut has curled up on a bad confirmation. The 30-inut mostly looks like it is flagging. And if you look at how low this thing could go with a measurement here, you can kind of see that we would start to dabble with these wicks down in here.
So, be a little bit careful. volatility is in a place where it still has daily divergence confirmed and there is a lot of risk from here on forward that this potentially is the top right here. But we'll see if anything changes tomorrow and we'll update you on Patreon if that does happen. Thank you guys so much for watching this video.
I really do appreciate it. Thank you guys for liking, subscribing. I do appreciate that as well. I just hope you guys continue to trade like water and try to put yourself in a place where you can have a plan for if everything goes right, but also a plan for if things go wrong as a just in case. Because as always, we like to trade like water, to pay attention to rocks down the stream, and then we like to end up in the meadow and not necessarily in the sewer with the it clown. Thank you guys, and I hope you have a fantastic night. Peace out.
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