저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장은 장기적으로 낙관하지만 단기 과열과 정크 소형주 투기를 경계하라. 시장 전망: Vijay Kedia는 니프티 20,000 부근에서도 22,000, 25,000, 30,000까지 가는 여정이며 자신은 보유 주식을 매도하지 않고 다른 주식을 추가 매수해 강세 입장이라고 밝힘. 속도 우려: 시장 상승 속도가 다소 우려스럽다고 언급했으나 상승·하락·조정은 반복될 과정이라고 봄. 신규 투자자 우려: 최근 처음 연락하는 신규 투자자들이 무엇을 살지 묻는 전화가 늘었고, 소형주·페니주식 투자 열기를 더 걱정함. 시가총액 구분: 대형·중형·소형·정크(bhangar) 4단계로 나누며, 이름도 모르는 정크 캡 종목에 투자하는 것은 매우 위험하다고 경고. 중형·소형주에는 아직 상승 여지가 있다고 봄. 방산·철도·PSU 종목: 개인적으로 매우 비싸다고 판단. 수주잔고 증가 발표만으로 시가총액이 급등하는 현상(예: Patel Engineering 1500억 수주 후 1조 원 상승)을 광기·도취로 평가. 투자 기간별 조언: 10년 관점의 인도 성장 스토리는 유효하나, T2T·BTST·3개월·6개월 단기 매매를 하면 위험하다고 봄. 본인은 마라톤(장기)을 뛰고 있음. 출연자 전망: 인도 시장은 새로운 출발점일 수 있으나 장애물이 많으니 시속 50km로 달리는 기차에 올라타지 말고 신중하라고 조언.
다듬은 글
An emphatic point that you're making, Sunil. And great to hear that. Vijay Kedia is also with us. Ah, Vijay ji, good to have you with us here. I, you know, I will ask you for your views, but you know you are a poetic man. So I don't know if you want to express your views in a poetic way on 20,000 on the Nifty.
Good, man. At least what I also, I also feel the same thing. Like, it's a journey, you know. It's not a destination, and you will see many thousands like this, 22,000, 25,000, 30,000. The only problem is the kind, the speed the market is rising, that could be a little worrisome. And all, and I will tell you one example, " seeing is believing," as they say.
That I have not sold any shares. Whatever shares I have sold, I have put them into some, you know, I have bought some other share. So I am bullish on the market. It's a journey, it will keep on happening, and stocks will keep on rising and falling and churning, and all these things will happen in this market.
And I am more worried about these new investors. You know, nowadays I am getting three-four phone calls. You know, people who have never interacted with me, and now they are calling me and talking to me. "Hey, what should I buy?""Tell me.""Should I buy a small share? Should I buy this?" Even now people are talking about, " Should I buy small, should I buy penny stocks, should I buy this or that?" So I am more worried about all those people.
So since you said, I will recite four lines of one of my songs: Everyone is a genius in a bull market, everyone thinks they are a hero. In the storm of a downturn, they are made, ruined, and back to zero. In the making and breaking, a new life has begun. Still, don't lose your senses just because the party has started.
So this is the message I would like to give to the newcomers and small investors. Loved it, Vijay. Thanks so much for joining. Sunil, I request you as well to... Do you want to come in? Do you want to come in? Yeah, yeah, go on. Yeah, I want to say something. You see, I was reading the newspaper today as well as last week.
People are talking about being more worried about mid-caps and all. Let me tell you, I think that in mid-caps, there are still some shares which have really started their journey. The upswing, the up journey has started. My problem is not with mid-caps and small-caps. As I said earlier too, I have traded on different platforms many times.
So there are four caps, you know: large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap, and "bhangar"(junk) cap. So 5,000 shares fall into the category of junk caps. I am more worried about the junk caps, not the mid-caps and small-caps, because it's a big platform with so many shares there. Usually, all these small investors and new investors come and prefer to invest in junk caps, whose names they've never heard and know nothing about; they are even coming to invest in those.
So that temptation, that is very risky. No, that is not going to end in a good way. So this is what I would like to say, yeah. Vijay, you know, point well made. Absolutely well put, and not make fresh ones, right? That's the point. Uh, not make uh. We will all make fresh ones, as long as we keep reducing our mistakes, we are fine.
Absolutely. Uh, Vijay ji, you want to come in on exactly that point? For viewers who are watching and, you know, do it yourself. I mean, running your own portfolio. It's become a big thing. World over and in India as well. And people want to do it. People want to learn, people want to invest their own money.
Be responsible for their own investments. Uh, et cetera. I mean, as a veteran, what would you tell them? At this juncture? No, I, since you were discussing these PSUs and all those railway stocks and defense stocks and all, let me tell you, I personally find them now very expensive. Okay? They are expensive beyond imagination, so people should understand, people should always remember.
See, if your view is for 10 years, like Sunil ji said that yes, the India story is fine, if you are really playing the India story, that means you are playing for a decade, then it is all right. But if you are talking about the India story and playing the T2T story, or BTST story, or six-month story, or three-month story, then you are in trouble.
Then you should remember, as I always say, that Rome was not built in a day, but Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed in a day. This is what people should be very cautious about in this market. If you are long-term, I am playing a marathon here. I, I am running a marathon. Okay? So I don't mind if my stock goes up from ₹ 1000 to 4000, 4000 to 2000, I don't mind, you know.
But like, if playing the momentum, then one has to be very careful. You said defense, railway, Vijay ji, and you mentioned one more sector. No, all these stocks are rising on the basis that the order book has grown so much, they got an order, and suddenly Patel Engineering gets a 1500 order and the market cap increases by 10,000 crores.
That is madness, man, that is euphoria. What nonsense, does it happen like that, man? Nilesh. Absolutely. Nilesh, while the India story is right. Vijay ji, last word to you, and I will request you, once again, recite what you said in Hindi, just a bit more slowly. Okay, okay. No, because your time is precious, that is why I was...It was like this: In a bull market, everyone is a genius, everyone considers themselves a hero.
In a recession, in the storm of a downturn, they are made and broken, and back to zero. In the making and breaking, a new life has begun, yet losing one's senses, even if the party has started. What I mean to say is, the long-term party must have begun. Like all these pundits, Sunil ji , Nilesh bhai, everybody is saying that yes, it's fine, India's story is just starting, and that is, of course.
So maybe we are, it's a new beginning, it could be a new beginning for India. But there would be many hiccups, you know? So don't try to board a train which is running at a 50 kilometer speed. Caution is the buzzword, man. So it's the same advice that our parents would always give us, right? Go enjoy the party, but do so responsibly.
I think that's what Vijay is saying. Absolutely. I think it's so well put. Vijay ji, thank you very much for joining us. Sunil. Great to speak with you, as always, here is wisdom distilled in their interaction. Nilesh, always a pleasure speaking with you, and you put out some great points today on this program.
Thanks indeed, all of you, for joining us here on CNBC TV18. Thank you. Well, we'll wrap up on this note.
Comments 0