저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 고용지표는 연착륙 시나리오와 일관되어 긍정적이나, 금리와 달러가 상승한 데 대해 시장이 선반영 중이며 다음 CPI(9/13)가 핵심 변수라고 봄. 연준 전망: 8월 CPI가 다소 뜨거울 수 있다는 지표(트루플레이션, 클리블랜드 연준 nowcast)를 근거로, 9/20 FOMC에서 0.25%p 추가 인상 가능성을 언급. 다만 이후 인상 사이클 종료 여부는 확정적이지 않고, 한 차례 쉬며 지표를 지켜볼 가능성을 봄. 신흥국/인도: 연준이 고금리를 유지하고 채권금리가 오르면 신흥국 전반에 부담. 유가 상승은 원유 수입국인 인도에 부정적. 인도는 장기 전망은 밝지만 인프라 투자 확대가 필요하고, 단기적으로는 신흥국과 함께 횡보할 것으로 예상. 중국: 리오프닝 이후 경기 둔화로 상반기 부진. 정부의 부양책 기대로 단기 트레이딩 관점에서는 기회로 보이나, 구조적 문제로 효과는 제한적일 수 있음. 단기적으로는 인도가 중국보다 상대적으로 나은 성과를 낼 것으로 봄. 지정학: 미중 간 전략적 경쟁과 긴장이 지속되는 환경. 미국 경제는 강하고 인도도 견고한 반면, 중국은 구조적 문제가 있다고 평가.
다듬은 글
research Ed good to have you with us here as always on the program thanks very much for your time uh you know the jobs are sort of data out of the US look like sort of consistent with the soft Landing thesis so that's good news but what was uh so e but yields went up some seven eight basis points the tenure dollars strengthened what was that about well financial markets tend to look ahead as you know and I think the markets uh concluded that uh yeah it was good news but uh now we must move forward and see what's next and what's the big number that's coming up next is on September 13th and that's the Consumer Price Index so that'll be a very very important number and I think the Market's starting to be concerned that we've had two great months on the inflation front and we could have a setback perhaps in the September reading and if so that would incline the FED to actually raise interest rates by a quarter point at the September 20th meeting so I think it's just a a cautionary move uh concern that things might not go smoothly up ahead here after going very smoothly during the summer and hi good morning so from the fed your expectation is that there could be a 25 basis points rate hike and then what do you expect the FED could indicate that this is the end of the rate hiking cycle guy number that comes out and I'm inclined to think that it might be another good number but uh I've seen something called trueflation which is consistent with that view and then there's uh the Cleveland Federal Reserve has an inflation nowcast that looks as though inflation might be running a little hotter in the uh in the August number that we will get in September so I'm I'm inclined to think that the seat pair will be uh reasonably moderate and that the FED will hold off for uh for a meeting to see how the um forthcoming indicators are going to play out hi good morning uh how do you expect the equity markets to behave though particularly Emerging Markets like India we have to had a good run earnings visibility is there but now a couple of problems are propping up because China is pushing into stimulus monsoons out here not that great uh your view on the Indian markets well I think that uh all Emerging Markets are facing some some issues with regards to the FED if uh the FED keeps interest rates up here and uh bond yields are under some pressure to move a little higher especially in emerging markets that is not good for emerging markets the stock markets including India and if the price of oil continues to go up for countries that import a lot of oil like India and that's that's a negative look India's had a great move here India's Outlook remains very bright I think India needs to do more on the infrastructure side because I think that there are a lot of companies that do want to move out of China and move into India but the one of the basic problems is infrastructure reports and Roads and railroads so I think there needs to be more spending there but then again you know it was good news that India was able to land a uh it was a soft Landing of of a spaceship on uh on the moon and shows that India certainly has the technical prowess to accomplish great things so I think all in all I'd expect then you just kind of go sideways for a while along with other Emerging Markets okay so India to go sideways along with other Emerging Markets so in the pecking order does it change for you India's uh ranking compared to say markets like China for the rest of the year the short term in the in the short term India as I performed China because China's economy has uh stalled following the lifting of their lockdowns and so it's been a disappointing first half of the year for China's economy and China's stock market uh but now it looks as though the government is trying to provide some stimulus and we won't really know whether that's going to work or not I I suspect it may not work as uh as widely hoped I think China's economic problems are much deeper and harder to uh solve just with another round of stimulus but nonetheless investors I think will view China at least on a short-term trading basis as an opportunity and uh I think we've seen that in the copper prices oil prices so moving higher and the markets are getting set for sort of a risk on have you uh related to China but of course I mean uh Ed psyche longer term you know beyond the fixes the Chinese markets are the Chinese government is trying to make Etc uh it it is there is a strategic competition as well right I mean the race and geopolitics and stuff like that so uh I mean the United States and uh you know the the policy towards China is going to be a little antagonistic would that be fair to assume well I think we have a and certainly a different geopolitical world uh for the past few years in which there's much more tension much more uh conflict between uh China and uh and the Western world but also between uh China and India in terms of just the competition for uh for for some Global uh dominance but none of these countries none of these areas are going to be successful unless they have strong economies and it's clear that the US economy is very strong and I think India has got a very good strong economy I think China has some real uh problems with their economy that are structural in nature got it Ed great to speak with you as always thank you very much for your time and uh thank you for joining us as always foreign
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