저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
Vijay Kedia는 시장이 사상 최고가 부근이라도 지금은 '관망하며 지켜보는 단계'라고 말한다. 본인은 자산의 100%를 투자 중이지만 신규 매수는 하지 않고 매도도 하지 않는다고 한다. 시장 구간은 적극·선택·비활동의 세 단계로 나뉘며, 현재는 비활동(관찰) 단계라는 입장이다. 중소형주 중 선별된 종목은 지난 2~3년간 4~10배 성장해 지수와 무관하게 여전히 매력적이라고 본다. 사상 최고치 경신은 시장 모멘텀을 주고, 일부 과열(euphoria)을 동반하지만 실적 성장이 뒷받침되면 정당화된다고 평가한다. 다만 과열 구간에서는 급등 후 30~70% 급락이 나올 수 있어 주의가 필요하다고 경고한다. 사례로 Sarah(사니터리웨어) 주식을 들었다. 2003~2005년 대략 6~60루피에 매수해 배당만으로 원금을 회수했고, 현재는 16,000배 수익이라고 한다. 주택 수요와 경제 성장이 이어지는 한 테마는 유효하다고 보았지만, 본인은 마지막 물량을 매도했다고 밝혔다. 방산주(Hindustan Aeronautics, Mazda)는 현재 보유하지 않으며 과거 일부 매도했다. 과열 논란이 있어도 실적 기반 종목은 장기적으로 유지될 수 있다고 보았다. 전반적으로 장기 보유와 농부식 사고(불황에 매도하지 않음)를 강조한다.
다듬은 글
Not today, it will happen tomorrow. Whatever, right? I mean, it doesn't matter. How do you feel about the market? I mean, do you feel that, at least, especially in mid-cap and small- cap companies, things are getting a little bit overheated. Uh, you told me you have three ways of looking at the market.
Three phases, right? Three different phases. Three phases of the market. For example, sometimes you need to be active, sometimes selective, and sometimes inactive, right? And don't forget that inaction is also activity. You know, if I may judge, I don't buy anything at this market. This doesn't mean I'm selling anything either.
I'm 100% invested, and that's what I've been doing for the last 30 years, so it's okay. I don't care if the market is at an all-time high or not; it happens today, or in 5 days, or next month. There are so many mid- cap companies that have grown four, five times, 10 times in the last two, three years.
So for them, this is already an all-time high for the market, the all-time high for super midcaps, they're concerned about the select midcaps , the midcaps are very large, 5,000 stocks, you know, but the select good midcaps are really surprising in this market, forget about the index, whether it's an all-time high or not, so you 're in the inactive active phase right now, as you mentioned.
Yes, I'm active 24/7, but for now, yes, as far as shopping goes, I don't have any money either. And I would prefer any seed that you sow, you know, not necessarily every time you have to, you know, sometimes you just have to watch your plant, watch your plant grow. So I'm in that phase right now. I am invested and watching what happens.
Record highs simply give the market momentum; People become, you know, very happy or think, and then the stock price also exceeds expectations or, as they say, becomes overvalued. So that's what's happening in this market, but it's an integral part; This doesn't mean you should sell. And this is n't some kind of jerk or anything, right?
I mean, the fundamentals look good. Profit growth was very good. So in that sense it's justified, and you can justify it based on the fundamental indicators of what's happening. Whatever investments I do, Prashant, I am comfortable in all these stocks, but most of all, I am comfortable in stocks. I don't feel like they're overpriced or anything, or that I should sell them.
Today, as I speak to you at this moment, I think I might change my mind . I feel comfortable in this market, perhaps there is a certain euphoria in it . I see what we've seen in the past every time there's this kind of euphoria, so it's an integral part of this bull market. You posted a tweet a few days ago mentioning a company that collaborated with Tesla.
Tesla, but not Elon Musk's Tesla. Just imagine the stock price went up and then doubled by 60 , 70%, you know, then I realized, "Oh my God, what's going on?" I tweeted: “ Why isn’t this Elon Musk’s Tesla, you know? So be careful! The stock price fell by 30, 40%. Right. So people have to be, you know, always aware and afraid of all these things, otherwise they will lose their shirts and later repent and then say that the AR cap stock market and the 4000 stocks are in the Bangar cap category.
So all these stocks will show euphoria if there is a bull market or euphoria in the market and then they will fall. So you should be careful. So, uh, I don't know, sir, can you tell us more about some of your options that people always point out , and for example, the stocks that, I don't know if you still own them, are up 60, 70%.
Then, I think, there is the pre- precision camshaft. So you're known for picking these stocks and then fully supporting them, as you're describing now. Uh, give us an idea of some theme, although a lot of it is an upward trend. But when you look at your portfolio, what part of it are you most optimistic about, regardless of what the market is doing?
No, it's really hard for me to explain where you are more optimistic, it's like your child, you know your children, you have so many children, they are all equal. And I'll tell you one thing: I sometimes feel like my love for all my stocks is like love for a maid, not like love for a mother, like love for a maid who comes to our house.
So what does the maid do, and as soon as she leaves work, she forgets about the child, and goes to another house, and she gives the same love to another child. Because to me it's like a maid, and it's all the same , you know? So it would be difficult, maybe tomorrow...today, let's say some stock is trading well, I can say that it's my favorite stock.
but that would be a lie, I like them, that's why I hold the stocks, so I usually try to catch them or enter the sector where in the reversal sector where the sun has already started to rise, as you called Tyas, I still hold about 2% or something like that. I hold shares. So I bought when I saw that I had been waiting and watching stocks for 3-4 years and when I saw that they were at an inflection point and the sector was about to turn around, that's when I got into the stock.
So, this is the theme I'm applying. It can be any sector that is uncapped or uncapped, that I don't invest in, I don't invest in that. My job is to simply observe what is happening in the economy or in the country . Let's take Sarah's sanitary clothes as an example. Tell us, I mean, you think you bought it in 200, in 2003, in 20056, in 20056, and it was like...yeah, how many times, uh, 16,000 times, you know?
I initially bought it for Rs 60, okay, and in 2005 for six rupees, and the shares at Rs 60 till 2023, till December or let's say March 2023, I got about Rs 250 as dividends. Good. So you have four times the dividends, your foreign direct investment covers everything. And if I subtract the dividend from Rs 60 ...
Mhm. So my cost is zero. So, if I calculate that my value is Rs 1, now the share price is Rs 8,000. This is after the 1 to 1 bonus. So that's 16,000. So the stock has given us 16,000 times the income in just 17-18 years. So this is the magic of compounding, and this is the reward for your patience, and don't forget, I saw a COVID-like situation in March, uh, March of 2020, and I saw the Lemon Brothers crisis, also, you know, the 4000 stock, and every time that bull market ended in every empty market, the stock price would drop 50-70%.
M. and I were holding on to it, but I saw this, you know, your wealth falling or your portfolio falling, even in June 2020 the share price was around Rs 1,900 or Rs 2,000, and in just 3 years it came back to Rs 8,000, not the all-time high of Rs 8,000, but are you still, uh, convinced about the housing thing?
I mean, do you still want to hold on to Sarah, uh , do you think that given this scale of growth, uh , you might feel like we're somewhere close to... you know. No, I think the theme remains the same, as long as the economy is growing , will continue to grow, as long as there is a boom in the real estate market, as long as there is a desire to own a home, whether you own a home or rent it, at the end of the day, the home has to be there, you know.
So as long as the population and the economy grow, I think this demand for housing and the demand for all these building materials will continue to grow. But I'm selling, I sold, uh, now my last lot, whatever, now I'm selling. I sold after 16,000 times, I wrote my last note because I want to keep his mind active so I can find some other story, a bigger one.
So the lesson from Sarah's story is stay invested, stay invested forever, you know, 24/7/365, if you find a theme, if you like the theme, and if you think the company is doing well, just like the sector is doing well , then don't manipulate it, don't play the stock, you know, think like a farmer, you know, I don't sell my stock in the bare market, just like a farmer doesn't sell his land in a drought to buy it back in the spring, well, I don't sell my stock in the bare market to buy it back in a bull market.
On the contrary, I don't sell my land in the spring either to buy it back during a drought, because I'm not that smart. I don't know if I can get the amount I hold, this percentage, if I can get specific stocks to go down or not. So I don't want to, you know, get so smart in this market. I want to, you know, remain a fool who invests at any cost.
So, you know, I just want to ask you, is this kind of principle of, uh, staying ahead of the curve and staying invested, are you willing to apply that to the defensive side of the market? You know, we certainly did a lot of research today. These stocks have gone up, at least that's what I've been looking at.
So, when you see that, say, Musk's shares have increased by 400% in one year, you psychologically start to wonder if they've overheated. But market cycles also tell you that prices can go up, just keep going up, if you support the right team. So what are your thoughts on defense? Is she being selected for you?
So, I currently do not own any shares in the defense company. I had stocks that I bought, but I got out of them. Good. Unfortunately, you know, a long time ago. Of course, I made some profit, but it wasn't my idea. The idea is to get to the whole stock, but I think if I had Hindustan Aeronautics shares or even Mazda, I wouldn't sell my shares because I don't sell them that easily.
Maybe the stock is overheated. There is euphoria surrounding this defense company stock , but I think it will eventually stay. At Rs 700, Mazda was also in euphoria, at Rs 2800 last month, HL was in euphoria. Now it is 4,3900-4,000 rupees. So this will continue, this is the structure of this market.
This is the mood of this market. The market will always prove you wrong. A decline is also a rise, when the market is falling, then you also think that this is the lowest price. This is the bottom. This is the bottom, but the market approach is different. The same thing happens on the riverbank. Stay with us.
We need to take a short commercial break. Um, and we will do it. We'll come back and continue this discussion with Vijay Keria on the other side . Um, stay tuned .
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