저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
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결론: 지금은 종목을 신규 매수하지 않지만 보유 주식은 전량 유지하며, 장기적으로 성장 섹터에 투자해 기다리는 전략이 유효하다는 주장. 시장 국면 판단: 시장이 사상 최고치인지와 무관하게 현재는 '비활동(관망)' 국면이며, 이는 매도가 아니라 신규 매수를 하지 않는 것이라고 설명. 중소형주는 과열 조짐이 있으나 실적 개선으로 정당화 가능하다고 봄. 과거 강세장 말기마다 나타난 '유포리아(과열)' 패턴이 반복되고 있다고 경고. 투자 철학: 섹터가 상승 국면으로 전환하는 변곡점에서 진입하고, 성장하는 섹터는 '해 뜨는 산업'으로 장기 보유. 하락장에서 팔지 않는 것이 핵심이며 농부가 가뭄에 땅을 팔지 않는 비유를 사용. 사라(Sarah, 사라 위생도기 계열 사례): 2000년대 초 주당 약 60루피에 매수해 배당 포함 원금 회수 후 보유, 현재 약 1만6천 배 수익이라고 주장. 과거 약세장마다 50~70% 하락을 견뎠다고 함. 현재 주택 건설 테마는 인구·경제 성장으로 유효하다고 보나 본인은 잔여 물량을 매도했다고 언급. 인프라·자본재: 정부 주도 인프라 투자 이후 민간 투자가 시작됐다고 보고 강세장 초입으로 판단. 헬리콘엔지니어링(2년 전 매수), 파텔엔지니어링(2개월 전 매수) 언급 — 이미 상승했으며 추천이 아니라고 명시. 기업 분석 방식: 경영진 미팅은 중요하지 않다고 주장(외부 변수 통제 불가), 섹터 선정 후 가장 작은 기업을 찾는 보텀업 방식 강조. 경영진이 마음에 들면 가용 자금을 크게 투입. 매도 기준: 성장 섹터가 저물 때, 경영진 행동에 문제가 있을 때, 주가가 지나치게 비쌀 때, 더 나은 스토리가 있을 때 매도. 전기차 관련 기업(일렉트라 그린텍 등)도 언급했으나 실적 부진 지적. 리스크 경고: 과열 구간에서 주가가 30~40% 급락할 수 있으므로 경계 필요. 투자 판단은 본인이 직접 조사해야 한다고 언급. 출연자 전망: 당분간 신규 매수 없이 관망하되 보유는 유지, 기업 실적 호조 시 중소형 성장주 장기 보유 우위 주장.
다듬은 글
we have a special guest with us here in our Studios to take us through uh I mean really guide us in terms of what the market can do but more importantly how to approach things Vijay Cadia is managing to regular career Securities he needs no introduction whatsoever uh you know he's an investor who's every move is tracked very closely at last count at least the ones that I counted he's got investments in at least 15 companies with over one percent holding some of his favorite sort of big and most profitable picks have been names like atlato uh Sarah sanitary where and we will discuss some of these in Greater detail he's with us here in our studios in this video great to have you with us yes sir thank you thank you very much it's always great to see see you in the smiling face and and what uh you know what better than having you here with us in person yes yes we were hoping that we would be speaking to you uh with the Nifty at all-time Highs but not to be so maybe another day it's okay how are you feeling about the market I mean uh are you are you feeling at least especially on the medium small caps uh things are getting a little overheated uh you were telling me that you you have three ways of looking at the market three phases right three different phases three phases of Market life so sometimes you have to be active sometimes you have to be selective and sometimes you have to be inactive right and don't forget that inactivity is also an activity right you know so if so far I am concerned I am not buying anything in this market that does not mean that I am selling also anything I am 100 invested and this is what I had been doing for last 30 years so it's okay it doesn't matter to me whether marketing is at all time high or not all time high it is happening today or it is happening after five days or happening next month there's so many mid caps which I've gone up four times five times ten times in last two three years so for them it is all all-time high holidays you know so but selective good mid caps have been really done Wonder in this market forget about index whether it is all time high or not so you are right now in the inactive active phase like you mentioned yeah I'm 24 into 7 active so far yes so so far bind is concerned I don't have money also and I am I would prefer to whatever right you know whatever seats you have sown you know not necessary every time you have to you know sometime it is you have to just wash your plants watch your watch your plant uh grow so I'm in that phase now I'm invested I'm guessing watching what is happening all time high just give the momentum in the market but people become you know very you're happy your thing and then then stock price also overshoot or as they say overvalued so this is what that is happening in this Marketplace that is part and parcel that does not mean that you should sell it but it's not some blow of top or anything I mean it's it's a you know fundamentals have been looking good earnings if earnings pickup has been very good so in that in that sense this is Justified and you one can justify it based on fundamentals what's happening whatever investment I am at Prashant I am comfortable in those all those stocks most of all restaurants I'm comfortable I don't feel that they have over a shot or something or I should sell or as on today while I'm speaking to you at this moment I am thinking I may change my mind but I'm comfortable in this market but there may be some Euphoria is happening in this market what we have seen in the past every time this Euphoria happens so that is a pattern parcel of the of this bull market so that you have to take it tweet some days back you put on a tweet some days back mentioning a company which is tied up with Tesla Tesla yeah but not the test not Elon Musk let's just imagine the stock price went I've been doubled 60 70 percent gone up yeah you know then I really realize activities and also be careful the stock price went down 30 40 percent correct so that is that people should be you know should always be aware and afraid of all this kind of uh you know things otherwise they will lose their shirt and later on they will repent and then they will say the stock market that's the code of mine uh there are four caps you know there is large cap mid cap small caps and there is another cap which is foreign so one should be careful so uh I don't know whether you can give us some more color on some of your picks that people always look out for and and forget like for instance the stock like pages I don't know if you still own it or not up 60 70 then I think there's a Precision camshaft camshaft so you're known to pick these stocks and then really back them all the way like you're describing right now so give us a sense or maybe a theme with a lot of product of it uh are you most optimistic on uh despite whatever the market is doing so it is very difficult for me to elaborate that there are very more optimistic it is like your child you know your children you have so many children and I will tell you one thing I sometimes feel that my love towards all my shares is life made not like a mother like the maid which comes to our house so what made does and the moment she leaves the job she forgets about the child and she goes to another house and she gives the same love to the to another child so so first for me it is same you know so it would be difficult to maybe tomorrow's today suppose some stock is doing well I can say this is my favorite stock but that that would be a lie I'm I'm liking them that is why I'm holding so I usually try to catch or try to enter into a sector where in a tunnel round sector where the sun has started Rising as you name the stages I am still holding around some two percent or something I am holding they just so I bought when I found I I waited and I watched the stock for three four years and when I found now that it is at an inflection point and now that the sector is going to turn around then I entered the stock so this is what the theme I am applying it could be any sector that is no limitation on a restriction that I don't invest in this I don't invest in that my job is to just watch what is happening uh in the economy or in the country let's use uh Sarah's sanitaryware as an example right tell us this I mean it's a you think you bought it in 2000 or 2003 2456 20056 yeah and that has been uh it's been a work yeah so Sony X how many x 16 thousand times you know I bought initially I bought it 60 rupees okay and the 2005 and 60 rupees and in 60 rupees shares till 2023 till December or say 2023 March I got some 250 rupees as dividend okay so you have got four times as a dividend money that money your fdki all everything is covered and so if I minus the dividend from 60 rupees so my cost is zero so it's like if I calculate that even my cost is one Rupee now stock price is 8 000 rupees it is after one to one bonus so it is about 16 000 rupees so the stock has given us 16 000 times return in May 17 18 years so this is the magic of compounding and this is the reward of your specials and don't forget that I have seen the Kobe like situation in Mass uh March 20 and I've seen living with this crisis also you know the stock 4000 and every time at every wherever this bull market ended in every bear Market the stock price went down by 50 to 70 percent and I held on to that I saw that kind of you know erosion in your well so it wasn't in your portfolio even in copy June 20 stock price was 1900 to 2000 rupees but are you are you still as convinced just about the Home Building theme I mean this we want to hold on to Sarah or do you think that given this the extent of the rally uh you perhaps feel that we're somewhere close to Thrift you know no I think team is intact so far economy will be rising keep on Rising so far boom in real estate will be there so far explanation of having your home will be there whether you own the home or you rent the home ultimately home has to be there you know so as long as population is rising and economy is rising I think this demand for housing and demand for all this their building material things will keep on continue to rise but I'm selling I've sold now my last lot whatever now I am selling I have sold after 60 000 times I return my last lot because I I want to keep my mind active so that I can find someone else so the lesson from the Sarah story is what that stay invested forever you know 24 into 7 into 365.
if you find a theme if you like a theme and if you think that company is doing well as well as the sector is doing well then don't Tinker that don't play with the stocks now think like a farmer you know why don't sell my stocks in a bear market like a farmer does not sell its land in a drought to buy back in the spring okay so same same way I am not selling my shares in a bear market so that I will buy back in a bull market on the contrary contrary I don't sell my land in the spring also to buy back in the drought because I'm not so smart I don't know whether I would able to get that kind of quantity which I am holding that percentage will I be able to uh that particular stress will fall or not fall if I don't want to you know become so smart in this market I want to you know remain a fool that stay invested at any cost let's just talk about another area which you're very bullish on infrastructure capex and in this segment you have investment which you bought recently but the stock has already done very well after you bought it elicon engineering is another pick of yours talk to us about this space are we starting a new boom in this space after many years I think so maybe my I am biased and so but I think so that uh you know in uh the Another Sunday sector there is a court of mind that stay in a sunrise sector at any cost stay out of a sunset industry at any cost so I think this capex and infrastructure is a sunrise uh Sunday sector currently uh for the simple matter that whatever infrastructure spending is happening in the country would happen in last five six years and by government only now private sector investment is also coming started coming up so I think the beginning of the bull market for all these companies all these sectors had just has begun and the last uh boom in infra and capex had come between 2003 and seven and if you remember stock price had gone up 10 times 20 times 40 times all those companies and after that hundreds of companies have died down because of all these scam or Bank scam and most of the banks NPA happened between 2008 and 20 because of only this info infrastructure and steel sector and because of the credit to them so now I think banks have also become cautious and now the people have also learned government Health government has also learned a lesson and now there are very few companies who can really execute some project worth three thousand core four thousand five thousand crores so whatever companies has been left out in this sector so and it will directly contribute or directly help companies like Helicon engineering and all which are into gear manufacturing so think all those things in my mind I bought Helicon engineering two years back and Patel engineering I bought just two months back but it's already gone up that's not at all the recommendation just a discussion because people should do their homework from an investment standpoint I wanted to know how is it that you approach it yes small in size medium and experience the smile philosophy that you speak about how important for you is meeting the management of a company that you invest in how do you do that how do you go about it secondly how does because you know actor allocation is a majority or you know if not more at least half of the most important part of investing so is it top down is it bottom up how do you approach investing like that let me answer your first question that meeting management is important or not if you really ask me meeting management is not at all important you know I remember I will give you one instance just just for an example uh you know just for the viewers uh I never met Sarah management till the price was 700 rupees okay so one day somebody a friend of mine told me that uh he knows the CFO and our love the management whatever he knows the management role and you should meet him I said I don't want to meet because I never bought any shares after meeting the management whatever I whatever stocks I have bought always I buy you know before because that is I I don't so anyway I'm coming to my point at 700 rupees so there was some conference that company had organized some conference uh you know in Mumbai and I went to meet them and I realized that uh maybe the stockists should not do well uh or maybe there would be some some problem in the company and all this is what I could understand from the meeting eventually actually I did not sell any shares and you see what happened to the price so I think management himself doesn't know so far small cap and mid caps are concerned I think management himself doesn't know that what is going to happen in the in the economy and what has happened to going uh happening uh since they don't know anything about the economy how would they know about what is happening they may know something something like what expansion they have what are their future plans and all but the internal factors must be in their control but external Factor it is not in the control of the management also so I don't I I think it's a futile exercise you should if you are a long-term investor if your vision is very short like suppose if you want to buy a shares for one year or two years then maybe you need to meet the management so for me it is not important and second question was that I I always I'm looking out for the uh you know change in the sector what is happening as I said earlier described so that is a you can call it a bottom up approach but first I should like the sector then I should find the smallest company in the sector you know like usually all these companies have having only four or five companies in every sector so I should find the company which is smaller in size and then I uh if I like the company if I like the management management is the first criteria if I like the management then I will buy in a big way big way in the sense whatever money I have at that point of time I will buy the share all right that explains uh the philosophy of Entry now the second follow-up is exit you said that you know you're always 100 invested so but at the same time one should also keep booking profits so how does Vijay careers sell shares I mean how does he think of looking looking at exiting opportunities now when I find that as I said though uh stay invested in the sunrise industry at any cost and they stay out of a sunset industry any cost when I see or when I realize that maybe the Sun is setting in the sector that is the time that I would exit the stock or if I find some management of doing something something fishy or something which they should not do no then also their focus changes then also I would sell the shares or the shares become so expensive that it is irresistible then also I could sell or I find some another story you know see that I am fights a stock has already gone up 10 times 20 times or whatever it is timing times are not the criteria but if if I find some better story than the than this existing stock then also I may exit that's a very very interesting philosophy Mystic area that you you know typically when we think of micro cap small caps everybody says bottom up bottom up it's a very interesting approach that you first identify the bigger macro theme the big sector and then within that you look for the smaller names that you can back on so to go back to the quote that you've been making that stay invested in Sunrise sectors at any cost what are the new Sunrise sectors you see you know there's a lot of chatter on EV look at a stock like Electra Green Tech the moment anybody says renewable EV stocks start hitting the roof do you like that do you like anything else what else is uh what else is interesting you now no it's a large sector you know not only the EV in the sense what AV two wheeler av3 wheeler AV four wheeler retrofit then battery then bmss cambod hold them so many things so it depends on what you like so I as I have invested they are again they are also into elective three wheeler although company is not doing well now that because you you see the numbers of whatever June March May numbers were not good so that one should remember always that there is always you know there are there are many globe again it's not a recommendation you should do your homework but a simple matter you're in Bombay if you ride a auto rickshaw it costs you 23 kilometer 23 rupees per kilometer if I have to do go to Bombay from Bombay to Delhi say is it 2000 kilometer it will cost me 4000 rupees if I book my ticket 30 days in advance that is two rupees kilometer in 14 days if I have to book within 40 days 14 days then it will May cost me 8 000 rupees then again it's the four rupees kilometer so Indian uh this airfare are the cheapest in the world you know I I I I do not mean that they should increase the fare and all and it does not come into any regulation also government cannot control if government owns would like to control the aviation sector then we have to go by walking but I think the minister recently said that there is no plan right yeah and now that you've put it that way now that domesticated describes it that way that even at 8 000 rupees it's four rupees a kilometer and your auto Rick sites are this is 23 rupees a kilometer that's New Perspective now I won't feel that bad when I'm cooking my next flight maybe yeah you know uh you're famous for coming up with a very simple uh sayings in a way which describe your thoughts about the market in a very creative way you're a very creative person so I'm gonna I don't know if you want to sing but I just want to ask you uh you you you uh there was something you said Life Is Life is uh life is rude yeah if you uh please why don't you tell us yeah I will read out to you why did you read it out yeah life is rude when you try to figure out the trend of inflation recession and crude life is cool when you stay invested in this market like a fool life is fun when you are invested for the long run life is a blessing many don't compare investing with casinos and racing life favors when you don't entirely depend on economic status and Neighbors life slaps when you can't avoid that temptation of investing in bhangar cap life owners when you invest with a mindset of co-owners life is a fight when you want to become a millionaire overnight
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