저자: Henry · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아가 2/26 실적 발표를 앞두고 있으며, 실적 자체는 호조(최근 18분기 중 16회 컨센서스 상회)일 것으로 예상. 다만 밸류에이션(PE 51)과 기대치가 높아 실적 발표 후 상승폭은 제한적(약 140달러 수준)일 것으로 봄. 다메다란 교수 인용: 시장 기대치가 애널리스트 기대보다 높아 실망 가능성, 딥시크 영향으로 주당 약 10달러 가치 하락 추정. 실적 후 단기 상승은 제한적이라 커버드콜 전략 실행 예정(2/28 만기, 행사가 134). 장기적으로는 2025년 말 150~170달러 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Nvidia has been on a wild roller coaster. Just check out these technicals right here. You can see the stock was trading for over $148 per share. Had a double top pattern here at 147. And now Nvidia is about to have earnings after the close bill today. I'm going to keep this video really short and I respect your time.
So here's the quick agenda and summary for today's video. Number one, I'm going to talk about Nvidia's business. Number two, I'm going to show you a clip from NYU Stern Professor Aswath Damodaran. He's going to explain Nvidia's earnings and outcomes. And then part three, I'm going to show you a quick trade on Nvidia.
So let's get into it. Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday, February 26th, and the results are going to have a huge impact on the AI sector. It's going to move the entire market because obviously all eyes are on Nvidia and the $3.3 trillion market cap has a lot of implications for the rest of the AI sector.
I'm going to be paying close attention and I believe that Nvidia is going to have really positive and strong results. However, I am a little bit concerned about what investor expectations are since we are at a not cheap valuation to say the least. Nvidia is currently trading at $130 per share. If I show you the summary right now, you can see that the market cap is well over $3 trillion and the PE ratio is 51.
That means that for every $1 of earnings that Nvidia has, you're paying $51 for that $1 of earnings. But I do believe that Nvidia warrants this valuation since Nvidia is literally the infrastructure of the whole AI revolution. So the metrics are not cheap, but Nvidia warrants this valuation. Whoever has been invested by tricep into Nvidia has made literally a ton of money and every single employee that has gotten stock options is probably a multi-millionaire in Nvidia.
The earnings are going to be pretty simple. They're going to come in very well, okay? Because we beaten earnings like 16 of the last 18 quarters or something crazy like that. And the thing is, what's going to be really important is looking at what margin this income is coming in at because Nvidia has repeatedly over and over beaten its own sales expectations as large tech companies line up to purchase such advanced AI chips and software platforms.
Companies need Nvidia, not want. They actually need Nvidia's advanced hardware to build smarter and more complex AI models. The stock is positioned for a significant post-earnings rally. However, you know, I'm scared of the situation that happened to Walmart where Walmart had fantastic earnings yet the stock went down anyways.
I'm going to address this in part three where I show you a trade on making money on the upside while also building yourself a margin of safety by using a covered call option. I personally see a really clear road for Nvidia to 150 and even $170 per share in 2025. And a lot of that starts with today's earnings.
I think if the earnings come in positive, we can see the stock hit over $140 per share. However, the valuation and expectation is very interesting and it may be an issue in the short term. The Dean of valuation, NYU Stern Aswath Damodaran, he explained this in great detail. So let's watch a quick clip.
Yeah. So I think that that still stands. And I think as the earnings report comes out tomorrow, my expectation is going to be a lot like September, a replay of September where they will beat analyst expectations, but the market's going to be disappointed because the market seems to have set expectations higher than what analysts are seeing for the company.
But they would say, I mean, Professor, have you seen the CAPEX numbers of these hyperscalers, what they say they're going to spend and a large part of that, if not the majority, is going to go to us. And we we know that it is. And you pay a little bit more for future growth like we're going to give you where you can't else.
Now, if you back out from the market cap, what the break even has to be in terms of revenues, it's about $500 million in revenues. So even if you bring in all of the spending by Meta and Microsoft, that still gets you to maybe 300 billion, 350 billion. The market is actually building in a surplus over and above that of other people coming into the game and spending immense amounts.
So this is not a question of, you know, people are spending more than expected. That CAPEX spending was already there in September. It scaled up. With deep seek, the question is, are there other people who might have entered the game who are not going to enter the game now because their response is, I don't need those Nvidia chips.
For what I'm doing, I can get there with my cheaper chip. All right, so let's break down what Aswath said there. So Aswath expects a Q4 beat and I couldn't agree more with this. However, even if Nvidia beats, I still think the stock won't have that much short-term momentum. Again, I think the stock could reach $140 per share after earnings, but it's probably not likely to skyrocket by more than $10 because the expectation is already really high going into the quarter.
Aswath continued to say that deep seek had a huge impact on Nvidia and he sees a $10 valuation um change in his Nvidia estimates. He basically thinks Nvidia is worth $10 less due to this um, you know, deep seek issue or deep seek competition, which I actually think is kind of funny. Like I kind of LOL'd when I was watching that because $10 isn't really a lot, but I do understand him.
He's trying to be really precise. So $10 change, not really a big deal cuz we're long-term investors here. We're not trading. So a $10 difference is not a big deal. For me, Nvidia is fairly valued right now, but by the end of 2025, I can easily see the stock being at 150 or $170 per share. And I'm going to be doing covered calls going to earnings.
So let's get into part three of this short video. Nvidia is currently at $131 per share. I have several different option positions, but I'm going to be opening up a covered call position on Nvidia. A covered call is going to allow me to create some income and collect income up front for giving up the upside of Nvidia.
I personally don't think Nvidia is going to go up too much above $140 per share and the options are incredibly juicy and they're very short-term in nature, which is actually going to be not just a fun trade, but a quick profitable trade as well. I'm going to be using the cash in my account to buy 100 shares or 200 shares or 300 shares.
You have to buy in 100 share lots because each covered call, when you sell a call option, you need to be 100 shares. So I'm going to be buying a couple 100 shares of Nvidia and selling a covered call option. So you can see here, let me do sell call, February 28th, really short-term. And honestly, like even the 133 or 134 here, let's expand the 134.
Delta is 0.45, which is a really high delta. It's much higher than I usually go for. But again, this is a short-term earnings trade. And right here, you'll see that I can sell this option for $485. My break even for the shares actually going to be $138.90. So I get pretty good upside in terms of like Nvidia going up $7 in just two days.
Obviously, I can't make more money than $138.83 because I'm giving up my upside. You can see here how this option shows this red area here if it goes up too much, but it doesn't matter cuz this is a covered call and Robinhood is not really calculating this red zone properly. Essentially, covered call gives you up front premium.
Get some upside, but you cap your upside at a certain point. So I'm also having a webinar on volatility and managing risk that I'm going to do on Saturday. Go ahead and check it out in the description. Yeah, this is the trade that I would be making for Nvidia's earnings because I think you're going to have good earnings, but I think expectations are really high for Nvidia right now.
And given that expectations are so high, it's unlikely to go up too much. But I'm pretty bullish on Nvidia in the short term, like pretty bullish. And then in 2025, I think overall we're going to get a really good gains on Nvidia up to 150 to $170 per share. That's just my opinion. I'm not a financial advisor.
Just trying to make you some money uh based on Nvidia's past and where the economics are of the business, the valuation, and the technical analysis. This is my best educated guess on what's going to happen for Nvidia's earnings.
Comments 0