저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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미국 관세(50%, 추가 25% 포함) 영향으로 시장 변동성이 커졌으나 이는 일시적이라는 견해. 무역 합의는 1~2개월 내 이뤄질 가능성이 높으며, 합의 지연 시에도 실적 영향은 제한적이라고 봄. 인도 기업 실적은 최근 4~5분기 둔화 후 개선 국면이며, GST 인하 등 개혁으로 실적 가속을 기대. 조정 시 매수 기회로 제시. 국내 기관(DII) 자금 유입은 올해 약 70만 크로어 규모로 예상.
다듬은 글
Welcome back. Uh as promised, let's now go across to Ramarval, chairman of Motoral Financial Services, who's joining us. Rami G, great to have you with us in the program. Can I can I see a line behind you or is that a is that a cheetah because you are coming to us live from Kenya, I believe. Yeah, it's a beautiful weather here and lot of animals all around.
Uh, you know, and uh I think there's a lot of action in Mumbai. Uh, yeah. But uh but but it's it's I think the you know the action is they would want the animal to be a bull and not a lion or a cheetah or more bulls in Mumbai. More bulls behind Ramdev than just I think lions. The the the biggest bull is in
Kenya right now. one of the biggest Indian bulls. So yeah, we had to get a bit of Ramdeo G back on the screen because the market needed to hear hear the bullish voice. But there is a Ram G, thanks for joining us. I know you're on a break. Uh but uh what how do you how do you assess this entire uh situation
uh the tariffs have taken effect 50%, obviously this 50% cannot be permanent. This 25% additional will go away. We don't know when though, right? Timelines are hazy. So your first thoughts. Yeah. So actually these are historical moments in the uh in this uh global relationships and geopolitics geo economy whatever it will be remembered for a very long time and uh since this these are passing moments uh deals will happen I mean uh these are two big countries that uh uh it is impossible that deals will not happen deal will happen on what terms when that is uh there is some kind of a flux there is an uncertainty so uh of course markets will be markets don't like uncertainty and hence somewhat uh there's a uh there is a kind of bit of uncertainty and sell off in the marketplace.
My sense is it has uh the only way to approach this subject is to figure out at our end what could be the impact on the earnings you know kind of will there be a lasting impact will it be a deep impact how big it will be uh and then I spoke to my uh research head and all they said so that at this juncture if the deals uh happen in next 10 15 days 1 month 2 month they don't see any impact in the expiration in the earnings see right now what is happening is that we had a four or five quarters of slow surrounding the earnings in the in India and I think we are just about this quarter itself was 2 to 3% better and as the fiscal monetary and the arsenal of reforms which are going to be unleashed in next few quarters my sense is we are going to see earnings acceleration and also I'm presuming that some sort of deal will be in place in in the weeks ahead so uh so I would not in fact I would use this opportunity uh wherever uh I I was left with some kind of a cash or liquidity.
I would definitely use this opportunity to uh to buy some of the stocks which are corrected at this juncture. Right. Rand G, two questions. One, you you said if it happens within on the outside it's a two-month kind of window. I have no idea. No, no, no. I'm not asking when it'll happen. I'm saying that beyond because if it stretches for too long, then obviously you'll have to reassess.
But at this stage if it uh is is that the feedback or uh it was a general comment I heard two months on on the outside. No no no I have I have no timeline but I think both sides are in hurry and it will happen in the sense that it might be few weeks or maybe a month or two. So uh in the in the overall scheme of investing I would say this is this could be an opportunity because if by chance market corrects by four 5% more from here uh because of what are headlines come because uh the headlines are what drives you know so there will be few days when headlines will be like this and there will be you know kind of a talks from both sides headlines will be coming from both sides and there will be reconciliatory uh what do you call uh uh headlines and it is happening in the backdrop of global bull market across in equities
I just I just want to just just yeah and we'll talk about that as well but is there your team has looked at direct impact right but is there an indirect impact as well a lot of the impact lies outside the listed space but then that feeds through in terms of in income hit job losses income hit consumption impact and then you know loans going bad etc as well have have is is that something which because these are very labor intensive sectors go on sir U Prashant you just can't you you can't just believe that there won't be any deal I mean I I'm not I'm not taking a situation that there won't be
okay I think we are losing the line there will be a little bit how good of that whether it remains at 25% or whether it somewhere uh kind of thing comes so we have to assess only when the final I think that's a bit of a scratchy line do we'll try and connect you sir if if you can hear us I'll try this one time and then if not we'll reconnect
uh so your point is well taken that you believe there will be a deal or it could be one to two months if it is within 2 months then maybe no real impact on the earnings acceleration and recovery that the market is currently penciling in. So my uh my question to you is on um the kind of money because what the only thing that's really helped the market in the last 8 n months is domestic liquidity and firepower right it's been very steady with mutual funds they still give us positive feedback when we ask them but when you talk about H&I and the non- retail non-institutional money what is that money thinking do you see a lot of money gushing in if there is another 2 3% correction You know, let's do one thing.
Let's let's let's disconnect that line and you know, connect it again. Maybe we get a better uh shot at hearing and seeing Ramuj clearly. Uh let's do that. We are in conversation with Ramde Agarwal. We have him on a better line hopefully now from Kenya. Ramde G thank you so much once again. you know as as Brashant was earlier asking that uh
there is the direct impact of these tadips and secondly then there is a second order impact now on the second order impact you said that you you refuse to believe that there won't be a trade deal even if there is a trade deal that happens it is likely to be somewhere in the middle of the range right from 50 to say even if it settles say around 20 25% whatever it is it'll still be higher than what we had earlier accounted for what could the second order impact of that be according to you because you know there is textiles, gems, jewelry and shrimp feed etc fairly labor inensive sectors.
Do you think there could be job losses here? There could be impact on consumption because of something like this. It is uh it is too early to uh guess on the second order impact and things like that. Once the deal is in place then we'll start assessing uh whether uh uh what will be the impact because trade has its own way.
I mean uh I was talking to some generally guys they're saying that uh in fact their claim is that they won't be impacted at all. So now you have to figure out how exactly they are going to do it. So I think the trade has its own way. uh the impact I was talking to somebody uh yesterday and he said if it is 50% then we'll lose 50% of the turnover if it is 25% we'll lose 25% of the turnover so you can't figure out uh what will be the impact in particular company and the particular industry and then and and then it's not that only trade trade related thing is happening in the entire economy I mean Indian economy is on the move we have uh so-called as PM said arsenal of reforms coming in.
This is a time when government is trying to unleash reforms and so you have to also look at it because this is all going to happen simultaneously. Then there's a massive flow of the domestic participation. So you have to see when you look at market you have to look at everything and that's why I said instead of looking at what do you call isolated things let's look at it what will be the impact on the earnings because earnings are what is going to drive the markets not and nothing else.
So my sense is the if if you have say 25% deal uh in next 10 15 days or month or whatever I think market has already calibrated that particular kind of thing and the whole world is paying it's not that we are only paying 25% nobody else is paying even Pakistan they have put 19 20%. So I would think that it'll be a new world uh new uh new world decided by the way America wants to treat the world but world will find its own way.
Um Ramdio sir uh your point on uh big measures from the government right and we've seen that we've seen announcements right from income tax in the budget now GST cuts will be a reality maybe around the Navatri season itself uh is is but you see the market's reaction to these big changes as well the GST cheer lasted for all of one week and I mean again then the overall sentiment is so negative is there anything else that you would want from the government uh that can really spur the market sentiment back.
I mean there are so many things should be we can we can uh keep talking about it in the sense that uh these are I mean like I am in Kenya here I mean when I see the possibility of tourism I mean we can do uh hundreds of billions of dollars of tourism out of India but is there a focus on that so uh uh we can go on sector by sector and see the possibility of uh non-financial what do you call uh reforms which are required to unleash this econom my to its true potential education.
I mean the the uh Indians are going all over the world to get medical degree or MBA degree. So can we I mean that that might become $50 billion kind of a uh services exports uh or import opportunity. In fact we should be the uh university of the world which is very easily doable. No absolutely sir and the government uh and the government absolutely take your point and the government has been talking about some of these sectors so noninancial changes that can be uh you know brought in.
Finally, just coming back to the earlier question that I had on uh flows because till now in this slightly dark patch, domestic flows have held the market together. Mutual funds tell us that they're still very optimistic on steady flows, steady SIPs. What about the non-institutional local flows? What's your sense there?
See, uh the bigger the pile of money, more cautious they are. So, the HNI, they will all be sitting on the fence till the market goes in new high. And when it goes on new high they they are the guys who will take to absolutely new high. So uh this is the nature of the things all the institutions since they are managed by the uh what do you call risk averse people they will take their own time instead of in cashing on this kind of a soft patch they will come when the sky is blue and everything is clean and hence uh once uh there is no uncertainty they will come in and make new high so there's enough money sitting you must have seen di buying uh say four five years back was about one and a half lakh two lakh crores Last year was five and a half lakh crores and in this first half itself in lastuh last uh 5 months I think we have already done about uh uh three lakh three and a half lakh so I think we are headed for uh seven lakh cr kind of buying in the current year just by di on top of it what hns do uh you know that it could be a matching number so we have plenty of buying uh uh this thing the only thing is our earnings should held and earnings are not dependent only on uh US uh trade deal.
Uh, of course there'll be some at the margin some somewhere 5 10 bucks but I think the much bigger gusher of earnings are going to come from reforms. I mean even the GST reforms if if it is done in right right spirit you know the way it is being done say 28 to 18 and 12 to 5 or I mean if it is done in a clean fashion
I think it is that itself will unleash a lot of earnings growth and in that program that we did you you made you made it clear right time for tinkering is over has to be has to be clear directed and make it you know low rate simple no real complications and I think that will lead to many years of tax buoyancy even if there is a one-time kind of a hit in the immediate term Ramu G is there a need to support some of these sectors through various measures
let the deal happen yeah I think we should wait for the deal to happen and then decide what you want to do because the power of domestic consumption is very big now India is no more a half a trillion dollar economy it's a $4 trillion economy with 60 62% domestic consumption I think we can unleash it And uh uh that's what uh I think PM and the government is talking about and this is a great time uh the back on the wall and we can definitely do it.
So uh I I I I hope this uh whatever a little bit setback is there in the uh the tariff issue. I think we should use it to uh not only get a good deal on tariff side but also unleash the domestic side. Take that point Mr. Aaral. Thank you so much once again for joining us from the middle of your break.
Hope you enjoy the rest of your holiday and by the time you come back the markets would be in a lot better shape and hopefully we have the trade deal that you believe is imminent as well and thereafter there could be everything else that we need to watch out for. If the trade deal does not happen up until the next two months he believes that there could still not be any hit on the earnings.
7 lakh cr is the DII money that he believes will come in this year and uh no worries as far as consumption is concerned because if the trigger of reforms are unleashed on you know consumption then perhaps that could keep the buoyancy intact for our markets.
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