The AI Investment Bubble Is Getting Dangerous | Peter Schiff Analysis

요약 보기

AI 설비투자는 끝없는 군비경쟁이며 지출이 수익보다 주가를 떠받치는 버블이라 붕괴 위험이 크다. 채권시장이 붕괴할 수 있고 고객이 돈을 못 빌리면 반도체 장비 업체도 타격을 받는다. 6월 CPI는 유가 하락(약 30%)에 따른 일시적 하락일 뿐, 물가는 여전히 Fed 목표를 훨씬 웃돌며 금에는 구조적으로 우호적이다. 10년물 4.59%, 30년물 5.1%로 채권 매도가 재개됐다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Sure, there's going to be demand for AI, but is it worth the money that's going in to all of this computer equipment? And they're just going to have to keep on replacing it because it becomes obsolete, and it's an arms race. And if you don't get the latest and best, well, then you fall behind. So, yeah, even though you spent all this money in the past, but that doesn't do you got to keep spending it all over again.

02. So, this is, I think, a disaster in the making. Nobody really is thinking about the end game. Everybody is just trying to get in on the action. Everybody wants to out spend everybody else, keep up with the Joneses. And as long as the stock prices are going up, the companies are getting rewarded not based on how much they earn, but based on how much they spend because everybody thinks the biggest spender is the biggest winner.

03. But they're not. Right now, the companies that win are the companies that are selling the crap that they're buying. But even those companies are going to have a lot of trouble when their customers can't buy anymore because they're broke and they can't borrow anymore. And at some point, the bond market is going to break.

04. Today, Kevin Warsh testified for the first time as Fed Chairman before Congress. Today, he was before the House of Representatives. Tomorrow morning, he'll be before the United States Senate. Before I get into talking about the hearing, and I'm going to spend most of today's podcast discussing this, I want to focus attention on some economic data that was introduced or released

05. [clears throat] earlier this morning before the testimony began, and that was the inflation data for June. And the markets, I suppose, were concerned prior to the release that maybe we wouldn't get the good news on inflation that investors had been hoping for because we had a sell-off in the bond market yesterday.

06. In In the yield on the 10-year Treasury got up to 4.62, I believe was the high. And on the 30-year, we got to about 5.11. So, these were new highs for this leg of the move up in bond yields and down in bond prices. And I think this is just the beginning of a much bigger move that's coming. Also, we had about a $100 an ounce sell-off in gold yesterday.

07. Gold traded back below $4,000 an ounce, although it didn't close below 4,000, but I believe one of the reasons that gold sold off sharply yesterday was the anticipation of today's inflation report that may not have come in as good as had been hoped, but also I think traders were trying to price in some type of hawkish statements coming from Warsh during the congressional testimony.

08. So, I think they wanted to sell gold into these these news events. But again, this still misses the bigger picture that inflation is good for gold. It's not bad for gold. But in recent years, and I've highlighted it on this podcast how ridiculous this is, but the markets react to stronger than inflation news as a sign that the Fed has to fight harder to win the battle against inflation.

09. And gold ends up being collateral damage in that inflation fight because it means the Fed's going to have to hike rates or not cut rates or whatever the markets expect, it means the Fed will be tighter than what it might otherwise have been if the inflation numbers were lower. But all of this misses the bigger picture that the Fed has already lost the inflation battle.

10. That's what all these hotter than expected inflation numbers show. And so the fact that inflation keeps coming out worse than expected is not bearish for gold because it means the Fed's going to have to fight harder to beat it. It's bullish for gold because it means the Fed can't fight hard enough to beat it and that inflation already won.

11. In fact, I think inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for almost 6 years. If the Fed had the intention or the wherewithal uh to bring inflation down to 2%, it would have already done it. The fact that it's been talking about it for 6 years, yet has not achieved this objective despite constantly predicting that inflation will be back at 2% in 2 years.

12. And again, I went over in prior podcasts that this prediction is not based on any concrete evidence. The Fed just predicts that inflation will be back to 2% because that's their target. And so they just predict that they're they're going to achieve their target and they come up with a 2-year time frame just randomly out of the blue.

13. So it's all just hope uh but it never happens. And the reason that inflation is not back below 2% is because the Fed can't bring it down to 2% without doing a lot of other things that it doesn't want to do. And we've been focusing on the fact that Kevin Warsh has said that inflation is a choice. And again, that came up in today's uh hearing, but it is a choice that Kevin Warsh is going to make.

14. In fact, he's already made that choice. He's just not letting the public know that he's made the choice. He's just BS-ing them with the rhetoric. But anyway, let me get to the inflation numbers that came out this morning. So, the expectation for inflation in June, headline, was for minus point one. And that would be a big improvement over the plus point five from the prior month.

15. We actually got minus point four. So, a much bigger drop in the mark in the May CPI than had been expected. Year-over-year in the prior month, we were at 4.2% year-over-year CPI increase. Because of the lower increase or the drop in June, the year-over-year increase is now just 3.5%. So, that's a big drop from the prior month, and it's lower than the 3.8 that had been expected.

16. Good news there, right, on lower inflation. And the core, ex-food and energy, was unchanged on the month versus the expected rise of point two, which was what we had in the prior month. And the year-over-year core went from 2.9 in May to 2.6 in June. So, the markets immediately celebrated. Bond yields fell, bonds rose, and gold spiked $100 an ounce.

17. Now, first of all, it's not even really good news on inflation. Because the main driver of the point four percent drop was the oil price decline. Oil was down about 30% in May. Why? Well, because supposedly the war with Iran was over. We had the MOU, we had the ceasefire, so oil prices went down 30%.

18. Well, now the ceasefire is off, the war is back on, and oil prices, which are now back up at $80 a barrel as of right now, oil prices are up 20% so far in July. So, July is only half over. It's possible that the entire drop in oil prices that we enjoyed in May, or in June rather, because the war was off, are going to be taken away in July because the war is back on.

19. So, why even celebrate what really amounts to a meaningless number? What's more important is that we're way above 2%, and we're not going to get anywhere near 2% no matter what the Fed does. And of course, what's more problematic is that these are the government numbers, the official government measures of inflation, which maybe capture half of the actual price increases that Americans are are forced to endure.

20. Now, gold gave up about half of its $100 gain by the end of the day. I think gold ended up closing up about 50 bucks on the day. We closed just above 4,050. Silver up about a dollar, closing at 58.58. It got clobbered a couple of bucks yesterday, but I think the most significant action was in the bond market because the bond market lost almost the entire gain.

21. By the end of the day, the yield on the 30-year Treasury was back up to 5.1. And the 10-year is back to 5 4.59. So, almost the high water marks despite this better than ex-