저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 미국 재정적자와 40조 달러 부채로 인해 국채금리 상승·금융위기가 올 수 있으며, 금·은이 급등할 것이라고 주장한다. 거시경제·부채 리스크: 미시간대 소비자심리지수 현재 상황 지수가 역대 최저이며, 경제 전체는 좋지 않다고 본다. 10년물 국채금리 약 5.3%, 30년물 약 5.6~5.7%이며 부채 규모 때문에 현재 수준도 문제라고 본다. 금리는 더 오를 것이고 1~2년 내 부채위기가 올 수 있다고 전망한다. 주식시장: 지수는 AI 관련주가 떠받치고 있으나 S&P500 종목의 약 60%는 약세장(고점 대비 20% 이상 하락)이라고 본다. AI 투자 회수 속도와 부채위기 여부에 따라 AI주도 영향을 받을 수 있다고 하며, AI 주식이 버블인지는 결과에 달려 있다고 말한다. 금·은: 금은 최근 5,500~5,600달러 고점에서 약 4,000달러까지 조정 후 바닥을 다지고 있으며, 내년 신고가 가능하다고 본다(긍정적). 금리 상승은 인플레이션과 중앙은행 화폐 발행을 유발해 금에 유리하다고 본다. 은은 50달러 지지선 위에서 60달러 부근 매수 리스크/보상이 좋고 125달러 이상도 가능하다고 한다. 광산주: 금광주는 매우 저평가되어 있다고 보며 투자 확대를 권한다(EPGIX 펀드 홍보 포함). 소형주(주니어)가 대형주를 앞설 것으로 본다. 백금·원유: 백금은 금 대비 역사적으로 저평가라 매력적이라고 본다. 전략비축유 방출로 유가가 억눌려 있으며 호르무즈 이슈로 원유는 100달러보다 150달러에 가까울 수 있다고 본다. 달러 약세가 유가 상승 압력이라 본다. 비트코인: 12.6만 달러에서 6만 달러 아래로 폭락 후 8만 달러 부근 반등, 1~3개월 내 6만 달러 하회·10만 달러 미만 가능성이 있다고 본다. 민주당의 하원·상원 장악이 주요 하락 촉매라고 본다. 기타: 원자재 강세, AI 생산성 확대에 따른 자본·자원 가치 상승을 말한다. 주택시장은 모기지 금리 7.5%로 붕괴 상태이며 내년 초 고정금리 9% 가능성, 집값 50% 하락 필요성을 말한다. 금융·은행 섹터도 어려움이 크다고 본다.
다듬은 글
Next, you'll learn why $40 trillion in outstanding debt will blow up the bond market, destroy the housing market, and trigger a parabolic rise in gold. Well, I think that's wishful thinking at best . First of all, I don't think the economy is in great shape. In fact, we just got the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data, and their current state index fell to its lowest level on record.
And this has been counting down since 1951. During this time, we have had many recessions. We had many wars. We had a pandemic. We had financial crises. We have had many problems during these 70 years. However, never in these difficult times have consumers been as worried about their finances as they are now.
So, this doesn't mean that we have a great economy. Of course, there may be individual sectors of the economy that are doing well. For example, artificial intelligence and technology companies are investing a lot of money, but the economy as a whole is not doing well. That's why these numbers are so low.
That's why Republicans lose the midterm elections, because they are in power, and the blame falls on them. If the economy was great, they would get credit. So, you know, we do n't have a good economy. Now, 5% interest rates are not high in historical perspective, of course, considering the period of the University of Michigan study, starting in 1951.
In fact, current interest rates are 5% lower than they were in the 70s, 80s, and 90s. But there is a big difference, with 10-year Treasury bonds yielding 5.3%, 5 and a quarter, and 30- year bonds yielding about 5.6-5.7%. But the difference between these rates and past times is the amount of debt we have now.
We have much more debt. Therefore, such a rate is much more problematic than when there were fewer debts. And another concern is not the current level of rates, although that is also bad. And where they're going, because they're going much higher, and it's going to be much worse. Because, you know, if you look at the bull market in bonds, we had growth for 40 years, from 1981 to 2021 .
Treasury bond yields fell from 16% to about half a percent. This was a huge drop over a 40-year period. It wasn't a straight line. I mean, there were ups and downs, but the direction was downward. We are now in a "bear" market. Direction—upward. We have only been in a bear market for 6 years. So who knows how many more years are left, but I think the stakes will rise significantly.
And that's a huge problem for the economy, which could explode into a full-blown debt crisis within the next few years, and maybe even next year. Everything is so bad. You know, if you look at our history with debt, we started out as a country with low debt and low interest rates. Everything was fine.
Then our debt started to grow. He was still short, just not as short. And then interest rates skyrocketed. So, we had low debt and high interest rates. The high interest rates were a problem, but we could handle it because the debt was small. Then, when debt exploded after COVID, interest rates actually fell sharply.
So we got very low interest rates, which allowed us to deal with very high debt . But now we will have even more debt and high interest rates. This is an impossible combination. And this will lead either to massive defaults and bankruptcies on debts, or to uncontrollable inflation. But these are only two alternatives.
If we look, Peter, at the stock market, you know, looking at it, you wouldn't think we have any problems. happiness, prosperity and the mainstream claims that raising interest rates will fix inflation. But the math reveals a terrible trap with 40 trillion in unpaid debt. The entire financial system is teetering on the brink of a sovereign crisis, and what happens next will change the value of your money forever.
And do you think we will eventually get to that point if nothing changes? Yes. Well, obviously we already have stock issues. It's just that the general indices still show results because there are a handful of stocks that are doing great, and they carry much more weight in the market. For example, if you look at the S&P equilibrium index , you will see what is really happening.
But I think 60% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are in a bear market. They fell more than 20% from their highs. And many other stocks are in a correction, down, you know, more than 10 %. So you have AI-related stocks that, you know, are really just masking problems for the market as a whole. The question is whether the problems that most stocks are having will spill over to this technology sector.
Um, probably, but a lot depends on what actually happens with artificial intelligence, how quickly these capital investments pay off, and how quickly we have a debt crisis. Um, because the debt crisis could be the turning point. That is, if we really have a crash, all these stocks will fall. But you know, if we get some kind of profit and productivity boom in these stocks, maybe that will spread to the overall economy and to some other stocks.
But obviously there are many companies that could become obsolete due to artificial intelligence. They can, you know, go bankrupt. So there will be winners and losers. As always happens when new technologies and new achievements appear. So, Peter, you wouldn't dare say that we're definitely in a " bubble" when you look at the U.S.
stock market, because that depends on how the AI situation plays out , right? Yes, I mean, there's a lot of positive earnings growth built into the stock prices, based on the expected return on investment in AI. If investors are right, then this is not a " bubble." In fact, they may have underestimated how big the impact on earnings would be, in which case these stocks are cheap.
We wo n't know until it all happens . But, you know, that can also be overrated. We don't know what the future holds. I think the future of AI is bright, but who knows whether investments in computing power, equipment, and data centers will really be necessary in the future? Maybe there will be a more efficient way to get tokens, inferences, or something else from other, more efficient models?
Or maybe the Chinese will create competitive products, which will make the margins not high enough. Or perhaps we will face some limitations in resources and capital. We may not be able to make enough investments to get the expected returns. You know, there are a lot of constraints on the ability of these companies to make the investments that they think they should make.
There is no unlimited amount of capital in the world. There are no infinite resources, and the resources and capital directed towards AI development have to come from somewhere else. So, other sectors of the economy will have to sacrifice something to ensure this. And the question is, can this happen?
Can we afford such a sacrifice? Are we willing to make this sacrifice? I would like to ask you for a small favor. Approximately 90% of the people watching these videos are not subscribed to the channel. More followers would really help me invite new guests, including those you mentioned in the comments below.
So if you like these videos please hit the subscribe button, it will help me more than you can imagine. And now let's continue the video. Of course. And how important will the Fed's role be here, Peter? So you think that if there is a crisis, the Fed will have to print money, as they always do. Well, would n't that mean that if they did, at least nominally stocks would go up, similar to what happened in Venezuela?
Of course, not to that extent, but in principle. Well, you know, the Fed or other central banks are never forced to print money. It's their choice, and they choose it because they don't want an alternative that they think is worse, even though it's not actually worse. I mean, printing money is worse, but from a political point of view it is always better to postpone the problem for later, and that is what allows them to print money.
Yes, they only deepen hidden problems, so when we eventually face them, it will be even worse, but they don't care because they don't know. Someone else will be in power, so it will be someone else's problem. I won't have to deal with this. So they usually try to do what is profitable, not what is right.
And this usually leads to printing money. So, yes, that's probably what will happen. They will print a lot of money so that governments don't have to default on their obligations. But the consequence of printing money will be massive inflation, which is tantamount to, you know, default, because the people who get their checks from the government—whether they're a bondholder receiving interest or principal , a government pensioner, or a welfare recipient—their checks will buy much less than they expected.
And so they still remain at a loss, even if there is no official reduction in their payments. Yes, we will look at the portfolio structure later. And before that, Peter, could we take a look at precious metals? Of course, everyone knows that gold has had this fantastic growth. Some would say almost parabolic growth, and now it has taken a pause.
And you know, Peter, I know you're still bullish on gold, but after this big rally, do you think we could be facing a period where it's a year or two before gold makes its next big jump? It is possible. You know, we, that is, but we already had a fairly significant pullback from 5500 -5600 to 4000. We are forming a pretty good base here.
I think we will be going up again soon . And I think we could easily hit a new high by next year, which is, you know, a pretty significant move from here. Yes? Yes. I don't expect this to be a long-term correction. I think this is a pause that is refreshing the market, and I think it is laying the foundation for another big rally, especially as the potential sovereign debt crisis really unfolds, because right now investors are looking at rising bond yields as a problem for gold, as a headwind.
It's actually an advantage, a tailwind, because if there's a sovereign debt crisis, where do you go? Where, how will you hide from this? You are going for gold. If you are getting rid of US Treasuries and want an alternative "safe haven", then there is nothing else left. And the same, I think, if you're European and you're worried about what's happening in the eurozone, you're worried about France or other countries, what will you buy, right?
Why buy a dollar? Because we have our own problems. We have Treasury bonds, you know, we have debt problems. So, gold is the last safe haven left . And to the extent that we get high inflation as a solution to the debt problem, it will benefit gold. I mean, gold thrives precisely because of inflation.
So, rising interest rates due to falling bond prices are the most likely catalyst for higher inflation because they force the central bank to print more money—both to stimulate the economy, if they want to, because high interest rates depress the economy, and because they have to buy bonds that no one else needs, because if the Fed stayed on the sidelines, yields would be so high that the government couldn't pay.
And we saw something similar in the 70s, right? When the reasons that led to rising interest rates were also positive for gold. Yes. I mean, interest rates were rising throughout the 70s , and that was positive for gold. The only time high rates were a negative factor for gold was in the 80s, and that was because the Fed was way ahead of inflation.
And even though inflation may have peaked at 11 or 12 %, 13%. The Fed raised interest rates to 20%. So, you know, we can't do it now. We don't have the luxury of raising interest rates to 20%. We wouldn't be able to raise them even to 10%. We have a national debt of over 40 trillion dollars. This is impossible.
The US government could afford 20% interest rates in 1981. We can't even come close to affording a 10% rate right now. Yes. Why silver, Peter? You have already explained in quite some detail most of the reasons why gold should rise. Do you expect silver to follow gold? Yes. Well, that's because both silver and gold are monetary metals .
I mean, they have industrial uses. You know, silver is used in industry even more than gold, and it really depends on the price. If gold were cheaper, it would also be used more often, but they are also monetary metals . They have a long history of use as monetary metals. And so they are very closely correlated with each other.
So, if gold increases significantly in price, you can expect silver to increase as well. And, you know, eventually, it will grow even more, because that's what history shows. History may not repeat itself, but if it is any indication of the future, it is reasonable to assume that if the gold bull market continues, silver will make an even bigger jump.
So, Peter, you find the current gold and silver prices attractive. Yes. Yes. I mean, look, $4,000 for gold might seem like a high price in retrospect. After all, gold was worth $20 an ounce until 1934 . From 1789 to 1934, it cost $20 per ounce. And then, from 1934 to about 1970, the price was $35 an ounce.
And now, of course, it costs almost $4,000-4,200. But you know, last year or at the beginning of this year it was 5600. So at least you're buying on a pullback. You buy, you know, during a 20 percent correction. But no, I think gold prices will continue to rise. They have been growing for 100 years.
Why should they stop? This will not happen. That means they will continue to grow. Silver, you know, looks really interesting to me because it just broke through a massive double top, because silver hit $50 in 1981, and then in 2011 it couldn't even get to $50 before it fell below $ 20. And then finally at the end of last year it broke through that level, and when it got above $50, it just went up to $125.
We really broke through resistance, and now we've pretty much rolled back, but we've never gotten back to $50. So to me, this is a perfect technical development because what was resistance has now become support. In fact, we can't even get back to the support level. No one can buy silver for $50 anymore.
You might be able to catch a price of 59 or 58, but no one could buy silver at $50. Since it rose above 50 . So I think 50 is really supportive. You're probably unlikely to see a price tag of $50. Not that it's impossible, but I think the chances of seeing $50 are smaller than not seeing it, which means that buying now around 60 is a very good risk-reward ratio.
You have about $10 of potential downside . And you have at least $70 of potential upside just to reach the last high , you know, at $60. So I think silver will go above $125 an ounce. I don't think this is a peak and that silver will never be more expensive. I think it will be much more expensive than that.
So I think it's worth buying. What about mining company stocks? By the way, people, if you're going to buy gold or silver, go to Shift Gold and buy there because we have the best prices. What about mining stocks , Peter? You know, from a purely business perspective, if you look at all the costs of supporting the operation, they are much lower than the current price of raw materials, that is, the price of gold and silver.
So from a business perspective, they feel quite confident, especially quality manufacturers. So does this sector appeal to you now? Yes, it is very attractive. I have been buying shares of gold mining companies for decades. And, you know, I think they're very cheap. Especially considering how much they are making now with a gold price of $4,000, and the potential for even greater profits when the price of gold goes even higher.
Therefore, I believe there is a lot of value in this sector, and I continue to advise investors who do not have access to it to get involved. I already have a significant stake, so I haven't increased my investments recently. But if you have no or very few shares, I would take advantage of the current pullback to increase your holdings.
Most investors do not invest in precious metals mining companies at all . I think this is a huge mistake. You know, at Euro Pacific Asset Management, we have separately managed accounts that focus exclusively on the mining sector, among other strategies that focus on dividend income or growth. But we have strategies aimed specifically at extraction.
In fact, I have a mutual fund that people can buy, the EuroPacific Gold Fund, which again is comprised exclusively of gold and silver mining companies. So you can buy my fund. By the way, it is available under the ticker EPGIX. This is the ticker for a gold fund. You can buy it through any discount broker to gain access, or contact Euro Pacific Asset Management.
You can buy funds from us or open a separately managed account, where you will have your own account and we will select and manage stocks for you. What stage of the mining cycle do you find most attractive at this point? Royalty companies, producers, developers or juniors? I believe juniors have the best value.
We in our fund adhere to a strategy aimed at a predominant share of royalty companies and juniors. We are trying to offset the risks of small companies through royalty companies. And in the middle we have all the large manufacturers and mid- sized companies. And it was these companies that showed the best results in the final stage of the rally.
That's why my fund underperformed during that rally, because of where we were represented. But if the next phase is one where small stocks outperform large stocks, which I expect, we should succeed. So if I'm right, people should join my strategy now, in advance. Is n't that right? But we've still done very well over the last year or two in this "bull" market.
We just fell behind a little bit because of how we allocated our assets. Many people who own stocks that could collapse probably don't even own mining stocks. So it's not going to be something they can sell to get liquidity, right? Let me ask you a question about platinum, Peter. I don't hear you talk about platinum very often.
Does this mean you are not as bullish on it as you are on gold and silver? Well, again, platinum has a lot more industrial components and historically it hasn't been perceived in the same way as gold and silver. So, the typical buyer of gold and silver does not necessarily buy platinum. We sell very little platinum at Shift Gold.
Most people don't come to Shift Gold because they want to buy platinum. They want gold, they want silver. But, I am optimistic about platinum. I am optimistic about platinum. I think that all these goods will become more expensive. So I believe that no matter what you choose, you will make money. The question is, will platinum appreciate more than gold?
Historically, platinum is quite cheap compared to gold. So you might get a better deal by buying platinum, given the historical relationship between the two metals. I believe that energy prices will increase significantly. I think they are being artificially restrained right now because of all the strategic oil reserves that have come into the market from the US and Europe.
Therefore, I believe that at some point these reserves will be exhausted and, perhaps, replenished later. I don't know. But once they stop supplying resources to the market, I expect prices to rise significantly. Um, you know, I think the situation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, in my opinion, is not going to be resolved anytime soon.
I believe this will be an ongoing problem, and at a minimum, ships may pay significant passage fees , which will add to the cost of oil and gas. But when the dollar really falls against other currencies, which I expected, but it has n't happened recently. But if this does happen, that in itself will significantly increase upward pressure on prices.
So I wouldn't be surprised if the price of oil is closer to $150 a barrel than $100. We also have to discuss Bitcoin, of course, Peter. Bitcoin has had quite a significant rise over the past few weeks. What are your thoughts on this sector at this point ? Well, he hasn't grown much in the last couple of weeks.
I think it went from 70,000 to 80,000, or, you know, it's at 82,000 now. But Bitcoin had a big crash, it went from 126,000 to just under 60,000. So it's down more than 50%. And now he has repaid some of the losses, which is entirely expected, but it looks like he ran out of steam at the 80-something thousand mark.
It hasn't returned to its highs, it hasn't even reached 100,000, so we'll see what happens with Bitcoin next. If I were to bet, I'd say we'll likely upgrade at least within a year. That is, we will return below 60,000, and not rise above 100,000. So I think there are a lot of risks here. And I think a big catalyst for the next Bitcoin sell-off will be Democrats gaining control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate.
Because I think if both houses go to the Democrats, it will create a very hostile environment for crypto in general and Bitcoin in particular. Yes , the president and his cabinet will still support him, but Congress can still do a lot of damage. And I think the president's political capital will melt away.
He'll be a "lame duck," wo n't he? He, you know, can't run again. um, he would suffer a crushing defeat, so I'm not sure he can save cryptocurrency. He won't be able to, so the mere prospect of such an outcome or the outcome itself could be the catalyst for a serious collapse in Bitcoin. So, Peter, what other assets do you like at this point?
If we could take a look at the structure of your portfolio in the current environment. Well, I generally like all commodities, I think we're in for a commodity boom, especially with the development of AI. I mean, if we become much more productive, because AI will do more work than humans, if we have all these much more productive machines , they will be able to produce much more things.
Then we will need a lot more raw materials to make these things. So it should actually become more valuable. As is capital. You know, capital should have more value where labor no longer has it. That's the idea that AI is replacing human labor. So work loses its value. Of course, certain types of labor can acquire value, right?
Depending on how it fits into an economy powered by machines and computers, some types of labor will have no value, right? So where will this value go? Some of it can be transferred to other work that retains value, but above all, to capital and resources. So I have a lot of these resources, as well as many productive businesses that I believe will benefit from the use of AI, become more efficient, more profitable, and pay higher dividends.
Of course, a lot depends on how all this develops. Maybe big labs like Chat GPT or Anthropic, maybe they'll do everything. Maybe they will push everyone out of the market. I don't know. Yes. But I think the very idea that all this is possible is what fuels the "animal instincts" in the market. And the "bulls" are convinced that everyone is not optimistic enough, so there is no fear, but greed reigns instead .
But I think the markets are definitely ready for disappointment and trouble. What about the housing market, Peter, especially in the US? Would you say it's a very risky sector at the moment with these prices? Yes, the housing sector is in big trouble. The financial sector and banks are in great difficulty.
Um, the housing market in America is dead. Mortgage rates are 7.5%. A couple of years ago they were 3%. But today prices are higher than they were a couple of years ago. So how can anyone afford to buy these homes? They are not designed for a 7.5% mortgage. They are designed for a mortgage at 3%. In fact, I think a fixed rate mortgage will be 9% early next year.
So, you triple your mortgage rates. I mean, house prices would have to drop 50% for the monthly payments to stay the same. But it's not just that, as Peter Schiff shows, the four-decade era of cheap debt and easy bailouts is over. As Treasury yields rise on $40 trillion in liabilities and the lifelines of mortgage lending collapse, the financial system is teetering on the brink of a sovereign debt crisis.
When the Federal Reserve is forced to resort to emergency currency printing, paper assets will sink, making physical gold and silver the last safe havens.
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