저자: JimRickards · 외국인
요약 보기
Gold Republic 15주년 행사 대담. 금은 수천 년의 화폐 역할을 되찾을 것이며, 최근 2년간 금값이 두 배 이상 오르고 중앙은행이 미 국채보다 많은 금을 보유하게 된 것이 그 신호라고 주장. 달러 기축통화 지위는 끝나가고 있으며 달러 위기가 올 것이라 전망. 블록체인으로 금을 토큰화해 디지털 금으로 쓰는 것이 비트코인보다 낫다고 주장. BRICS는 신통화보다는 결제 인프라(대체 결제망, 상계 정산)를 구축 중이라고 진단.
다듬은 글
Good to be here. Beautiful city. Yeah, it's I guess it's the first time for both of you. And No, no, I've No, actually I've been here before. Yeah. Not recently though, so. Is this time better than the first time? Well, I had a lot of fun the first time I was here, so. So, you implying that you will not have a lot of fun now?
Well, we don't know. I just got here. But I was a lot younger the last time I was I was here. And so. Yeah. Like kind of my first time in Amsterdam. I've been to the Netherlands a number of times. I just been to Utrecht for whatever reason. Just the situation took me there, but it's great to be in Amsterdam.
It's a beautiful city. Lots of charm, lots of history, of course. Great people, great food. So, I think it's really enjoying my time here. Mhm. So, you're living living in up actually from Utrecht to Amsterdam, I would say. Well, the Utrecht citizens might disagree, but yes, you can say that. Well, when did you get here, Jim?
Um Sunday morning. Yeah, I was here yesterday. Oh, okay. Utrecht, of course, has a flying saucer crashing into a building, but uh you know, Amsterdam is a lot else. Well, we we actually sitting here in our new office. This is This used to be Well, the streets were and I told you before where they were brewing beer.
But today we're not going to brew beer. We're going to brew things about macro financial markets. We'll have drinks and beer later on, but Definitely. Um and obviously gold because it's also the the context of uh well, it's natural honor. I have to say that on my right and left I have two images, if I can say, of the gold industry.
Everyone knows Peter Schiff, Jim Rickards. I think those are names that are kind of yeah, like a reference in in the industry. I've been talking about gold for a while, so. Yeah. And also Jim, you also wrote many books. Mhm. Um and we're celebrating 15 years of Gold Republic. And this is also an honor then to be able to celebrate with among yeah, the two of you as well.
And the topic of the conference is the future of gold. And before we talk about the future of gold, I thought maybe it's good to talk about the present of gold and what defines what gold is today because we had well, 5,000 years of history from gold, right? And this time feels a bit different but also not.
So how would you put that into context if you look at at the history of gold and where we are today and what was gold and how it evolved, how would you say that this turning point we are in represents Yeah. the future of gold? Mhm. Yeah, well, I think gold has a long future, bright future. And I think that I think gold is going to kind of resume the monetary role that it played for most of human history or you know, civilization.
You know, we've kind of moved away from gold as money over the last 50 or some odd years. And we've experimented with a fiat currencies as an alternative to real money and I would say that it's a failed experiment. And I think it's coming to an end. And I think that's the reason that we're seeing the rise that we've seen in the price of gold recently.
We gold prices have doubled more than doubled in the last couple of years. And the central banks, foreign central banks have really started to accumulate gold again. They now have more gold than US Treasuries and that is going to continue that trend. And I think central banks are doing this for a reason.
I think at this point they know that the dollar's days as the reserve currency are nearing an end. How many days left is anybody's guess. But I think they are preparing for a world where they need to back their currency with real money. And and that's gold and I think what's interesting about gold's future and I just came from you know, this blockchain weekend in Dubai.
And you know, the people in the Bitcoin community uh just believe that gold doesn't have a future because Bitcoin is the future of gold as digital gold as something that's better than gold. And I think what that community doesn't really understand and there's a number of things they don't understand.
But I think what blockchain does, it doesn't replace gold, it actually improves gold. It actually makes gold more useful as money than it was in the past uh because instead of being limited you know, to uh you know, physical proximity where if I have gold and I want to transact with it, not just use it as a store of value, but if I want to use it as money as a medium of exchange, I need to be physically located with the person who I'm paying.
Um you can have gold ownership represented by paper, which is what we did for a long time, you know, under a gold standard. You didn't always bring your gold around. Uh you had a note uh that was effectively an IOU. The gold was in a vault somewhere either at a blacksmith or at a bank. And rather than paying the gold, you would pay a note that was an obligation for the you know, the the issuer to pay gold.
Uh and so that was currency. But now with blockchain um you can take that to a much higher level because I can now tokenize gold and now instead of writing a piece of paper that represents ownership of gold, you can have a token. And that token is easily transferable and and divisible uh in a way that makes gold even better as a medium of exchange than it's ever been.
And people, you know, they the Bitcoin community wants to criticize gold. They say, "Well, you know, you it's not as divisible as Bitcoin or as portable or as fungible. Yes, and as a physical metal, but once you tokenize it, it does everything that Bitcoin does, except it does it better, faster, and cheaper.
And unlike Bitcoin, it actually has value. It actually has, you know, a tokenized gold would actually be um digital gold because its value would be derived from the gold that backs up the token. The token would be redeemable in actual gold. So, in that sense, it would be digital gold. Bitcoin is a digital fiction.
You know, it's it's it's fool's gold. Uh so, I think that blockchain and what is happening right now with technology, I think it's going to help uh bring the gold standard into the 21st century as well the uh currency crisis, the dollar crisis that I think we're headed for. And I think the only uh way out of that crisis is to return to real money, and and that's that's gold.
I think you have to start analysis by asking what is money and [clears throat] one of my thesis is that we um we mean civilization or society have kind of lost this thread as to what money actually is. Um uh there's a classic definition money is a uh unit of account, a store value, and medium of exchange.
Uh there are other definitions, but that's kind of a good working definition. And to Peter's point, um gold is a definitely unit of account and store value. I don't think there's any question about that. Uh as a medium of exchange, uh its role has been diminished, but I think it is coming back. And I would particularly point to um a lot of discussion about uh the BRICS, uh you know, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa.
That's That list is expanded to about 12 countries. I think they have a waiting list of 17 countries. So, the BRICS group is expanding um very rapidly. And there was a lot of buzz a couple years ago, you know, the BRICS are going to launch a new BRICS currency and, uh, it's going to replace the dollar and, uh, uh, it'll be their medium of exchange and other countries could join in, etc.
And then that kind of went away. And there was a lot of, uh, there were serious questions about the feasibility of that. I mean, what's actually going on? The BRICS are building new payment channels. Uh, they're putting down, uh, fiber optic cable. They're creating their own clearing systems. They're basically creating a parallel system to SWIFT and Fedwire and the traditional dollar payment systems.
That's not a new currency. It's a new payment system so they really can get out from under sanctions, uh, imposed by the US and other, um, other aspects of the national security constraints. But the point I make is, uh, so let's say you're Russia and China. Russia is buying manufactured goods and, you know, technology from China and China is buying, uh, natural resources and oil and gas from Russia.
There's a lot more to it and a lot more members as we described. Brazil and India and others are important players. But in that simple bilateral sense, well, you know, Russia is sort of piling up, uh, Chinese yuan that they're receiving in payment and the Chinese are piling up rubles that they're receiving in payment and that's fine.
Again, unit of account, you can keep track of that. But, you know, how much Chinese food do the Russians really need? I mean, there's a limit on how if you're the central banker and I I always make the point that we don't really know who's the head of the central bank of Russia. It's the only central bank in the world who really understands their job.
But, um, there there's a limit on that. But so you have to settle up on some basis and the point is, uh, a couple things. Number one, you don't have to settle on a gross basis. You can settle on a net basis. So, if I owe you yuan and you owe me rubles, we can net them out probably with a dollar equivalent up to a certain point and then just settle the net.
Number one. Number two, you don't have to settle in real time. You can do it quarterly, once a year, that's fine. The central banks can settle with their individual buyers and sellers and exporters and importers. Um
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