저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
Schiff은 PPI 1개월 1.3%(연율 약17%), 전년비 6.3% 등 생산자물가 급등을 근거로 인플레이션이 재가속한다고 주장. 2026년 CPI 연간 5%대 이상, 2027년 7%+ 전망. 연준은 금리 인상 폭이 인플레 상승폭에 못 미쳐 사실상 완화 상태라고 진단. 트럼프 행정부의 경기·물가 성과를 비판하며 주택시장 붕괴 우려와 실물 금·은 보유를 강조.
다듬은 글
The economic bomb has landed. Peter Schiff exposes a shocking 17% rise in producer inflation, which has coincided with the worst housing and banking market crash since 1971. Looking at all the latest data coming out on both inflation and housing, I'm reminded of two instances in the past where we had what should have been a warning of a problem; but when the mainstream was very complacent in the face of what should have been very, very problematic evidence that showed there was a real problem.
This applies to both inflation and housing. And I'll start with inflation. That's about where I left off in my last podcast. In the podcast, we talked about CPI indicators. We did not receive PPI figures or import and export prices. They came out the next 2 days. I discussed this in my Friday SchiffGold Market Review, but I never got around to discussing it in the main podcast.
So I'm going to do it again today. But this period reminds me of the end of 2020, the beginning of 2021, when CPI and PPI indicators, as well as import and export prices, really started to rise. And it was very similar to what is happening now, as producer prices fluctuated more than the CPI. As are import and export prices.
And I remember in my podcast I was specifically talking about these numbers, import and export prices, how much more reliable they are, how much more grounded they are because of the lack of subjective manipulation, substitution, hedonics. But I also said that these numbers were leading indicators of rising consumer prices.
And the growth began at the end of 2020. And again , the president was Donald Trump. And at first, no one really cared. No one thought it was important. In fact, that was when the Fed first adopted its inflation averaging target, as inflation rose above 2%, even when measured by the CPI. But instead of responding to this with tightening policy, the Fed said, “You know, we need to get a little bit above 2%.
We need to make up for all the years we were below that level." To which I then pointed out that this was a bunch of nonsense. There was no reason to compensate for the fact that inflation was below 2%, as if we were being cheated or something . Like, “Hey, you know, I know you guys were really hoping for 2% inflation, but you didn’t quite get it.
Your cost of living has only increased by 1.8%. So don't worry, we'll make it up to you. I know you lost that extra 2% increase in the cost of living. So we're going to let inflation jump a little bit so you can catch up , because we don't want you to feel like you've been cheated out of all the inflation you're entitled to.
So we will do it." I mean, it was nonsense. And again , another reason I remember was the false justification for the 2% inflation target, which is that the Fed said, "We want to make sure we don't have deflation." So, you know, if we try to have inflation too low, we could slide into deflation." And to make sure prices don't fall, because we all know what a disaster that would be.
If the cost of living really went down, all hell would break loose. So we need to save the public from the pain of a declining cost of living. We want to make sure it grows. But we have to make sure it grows by 2%, because we don't want to get close to zero, because we could slide into negative territory.
Well, if we avoided deflation in previous years, if we didn't get a negative number, if we got 1% or 1 1/2% or 1.8%, there's no reason to try to compensate for that, because we dodged that bullet. So why go back and say, "Hey, now we want to make sure it 's 2%?" Because lower inflation is better than higher.
So, 1% is better than 2%. But the Fed wanted to find an excuse not to tighten policy. And that's why they came up with this nonsense of averaging inflation . We are not trying to get 2%. We try to keep inflation at an average of 2% over time. And again , I said at the time that eventually they would give up on this because inflation would be so high that they were not going to talk about lowering it.
And that's exactly what happened. But I don't want to go into that particular aspect in today's podcast. The point I'm making now is that the Fed was n't worried about inflation rising. In fact, she welcomed it. She acted as if this was good news because it helped average out the too- low inflation of the past.
And it should come as no surprise that the numbers started to rise, because we implemented the most inflationary monetary and fiscal policies in US history during the COVID pandemic. And I talked about it. I called it that. Remember, most leading economists and strategists, when they looked at the pandemic, considered it deflationary.
They thought, “Oh no, the economy is going to crash. People are losing their jobs. GDP is falling. And that will be deflation." And you know, at first interest rates came down a lot, like it was supposed to happen. The stock market crashed. And so everyone said, " Hey, we need incentives." We need incentives to fight this deflation." And then I said the opposite in my podcast, that it was very inflationary.
Yes, people were losing their jobs. But they didn't lose their salaries. In fact, their salaries were higher. Remember, for many people who lost their jobs, the government replaced their salaries with unemployment benefits that exceeded their earnings. This was the first time it was better to lose a job than to have one.
Because being unemployed, you received more money than working. And for most Americans, you know, it's very important because they don't really like their jobs. They are happy not to go to work, especially if they get a higher salary not working than working. Remember, at that time there were a few Republicans who wanted to set a limit so that these payments could not be received any more.
The maximum you could get was 100% of what you earned. And even that was an incentive not to work. Because if you can get paid the same amount for not working, then why work? Especially considering that you don't have to drive back and forth. This costs money. This takes time. You need to prepare for work.
Women, you know, spend a lot of time on their hair and makeup. They don't get paid for it, but they have to do it. So it takes time out of their day. And if you don't have to do any of that, if you can just lie in bed, sleep longer, and get the same amount of money, but even that was rejected by two parties.
They said, “No, no, no, this is too big an emergency .” We don't have time for this. We just have to send those checks. Everyone gets the same checks, no matter how much they earn. This is too important. And how can you be heartless, you know, during a pandemic, people are dying, people are in quarantine, but you want to limit some of that money?
No, everyone should receive this money." And so people were at home and shopping. They bought things. They were spending money. They didn't produce things. They were not working. They weren't productive, but they were buying. It was very inflationary. What should have happened is if we had implemented this stupid quarantine policy at all and nobody was going to work, we should have said, “Okay, then everyone should stop spending money.
"If you don't work and make money, then, you know, you can't spend." And in fact, the government, while showering consumers with money, said, “You don’t have to pay rent. You don't have to pay interest on student loans." So people were actually making more money than when they had a job. And they did n't even have to pay rent.
They didn't even have to pay back their student loans. So that freed up a huge amount of money for spending. And, you know, it wasn't just the employees who were getting all this free money. Remember PPP? If you had a small business, you could just apply for a PPP loan, and they weren't even loans, they were gifts because you didn't have to pay the money back.
So , you know, if someone lends you money, but you don't have to pay it back, how can you even call it a loan? Right? This is a gift. And I remember at the time they were doing this, there were a few Republicans who said, “Hey, I think people should check or verify the accuracy of information. There must be some proof that they actually have a business here.
And there were also some Republicans who wanted to have a fallback option where you actually had to prove that your business had experienced a decline in revenue due to COVID. Because many businesses actually made more money during COVID. Not all businesses were affected. Many people had higher sales during COVID.
I mean, my bank collapsed during COVID. I mean, all of our transactions have decreased. So my bank had a tough year. But my asset management company had a great year. I had a record year at SchiffGold. Many people bought gold in 2020. I had record sales. So this business did not suffer during COVID.
He actually worked well. But I could just apply for a PPP loan and I would get it. SchiffGold would get it . I could have lied, like everyone else. My asset management company, I could apply for a PPP loan there. I would get it. But there were some Republicans who said, "Yeah, let's make people prove they really need the money and get tested." And it was rejected.
Congress said, “No, we can’t do that. This is unfair. This is heartless. We can't ask anyone. Let's just apply the honor system. Let's just trust Americans to be honest with their PPP loans." "Yes, what a ridiculous idea that was." Because I pointed it out. Again , I didn't tell the quarterback on Monday morning.
Many people have come back years later and said, “Yeah, that wasn’t a good idea. There was a lot of fraud. "There was a lot of abuse." " Well, I said that's what's going to happen when they pass these bills, that it's going to be about fraud and abuse." This will be the most abused government program ever conceived.
And that's exactly what happened. Of course, there were a few people who were prosecuted for fraudulently applying for these loans, but the vast majority of fraudulent loans were never repaid and the borrowers were never held accountable. But the point is, to all these people, whether they were business owners, pretend business owners, or employees, the government gave them money, all this money.
You know, the Fed's balance sheet has exploded. It went from $4 trillion to $ 8 trillion when we cut interest rates to zero. We stoked the inflationary fire during COVID. Now, most people, again, don't understand what inflation is, so they didn't care that we were creating all this inflation. But then, when the sparks, you know, became apparent, when you started to see the effects of inflation in the PPI, in the prices of imports and exports, in the CPI, nobody cared.
No one was worried except me . I was out shouting on my podcast, "Hey, we have a big inflation problem here ." “After many months of worsening inflation rates, the public finally started talking about it , and the Fed actually had to, you know, admit it. And what did they say? Yes, we have this increase in inflation, but it is temporary.
Don't worry about it. Maybe it's temporary . This is a result of the pandemic, supply chains, and bottlenecks. So we don't need to do anything about it . We don't need to rush and just start raising rates now, be premature. We can just wait and see, because this will probably resolve itself. This is just a temporary thing, so we don't want to overreact to this temporary thing.
And then suddenly it became the biggest problem in the economy. We got, you know, 9.1% annualized – that was the peak, and suddenly the Fed said, “Oh my God, we have an inflation problem.” "and the stakes were raised, and eventually they reached...what was that?" 5 out of 1/4% or something like that.
But eventually the Fed responded. And, of course, it was inflation that determined the 2024 presidential race. The reason Trump won was because inflation was so high, and Biden was blamed for it. As I said, Biden was a victim, not that he was completely innocent. And besides, he was vice president for 8 years, when they were accumulating debt.
But the seeds of this inflation were sown under Trump. Trump got lucky. He got out of control and was able to blame Biden by saying, “Oh, look. "Look, you inherited low inflation." “No , he inherited a time bomb –inflation. Inflation began during the Trump era. It simply manifested itself with consequences, because there is always a delay.
You create inflation, you expand the money supply, and then prices eventually go up. They don't grow right away. There is a delay. And this delay worked to Trump's advantage, because he was able to use it to get a second term, because all the inflation that he actually created didn't become a problem until Biden came to power.
Now Biden's policies have made things worse, and one of the reasons inflation will be so bad now is because of what Biden did when he inherited high inflation from Trump. Yes, inflation, as measured by the CPI, has been falling every year that Biden has been president. In 2021, the CPI increased by 7% per year.
This was the highest calendar year. In 2022, the CPI increased by 6.5%. But in 2023 it dropped all the way to 3.4. And the last full...In 2024 it was 2.9%. So, all these years, you know, above 2 %, but decreasing. Under Biden, we had four consecutive years of declining inflation as measured by the CPI.
However, the cumulative effect of all this inflation was very bad, and that is why Trump and the Republicans won. Well, it's the same reason they're about to lose the midterm elections and will likely lose the 2028 general election. As I mentioned in my last podcast, we got the CPI numbers. The CPI increased by 0.6% in September.
And 3.7% is an annual figure. But if we calculate this 0.6% per year, then inflation is 7.4%. This is a big number. Nobody talks about these big numbers. But what I think is more concerning. We have the first 9 months of 2026 . Six. And during these 9 months, the CPI increased by 4%. So that's more than 3.7% year-over-year growth, because, you know, it's a big year, 2026.
Already 4%. This means that in the first 9 months of 2026, prices increased more than in all of 2024 or 2023. And actually , if you look at the PPI figures that we have and the import- export figures, I'll mention them in a minute. It is very likely that the next 3 months of the year, the last 3 months, will also be quite hot numbers.
And that for the entire year, the CPI will increase by 5%, maybe 5 or so percent. This is a big number. And what's worse, it will happen within the next 2 years. And actually, you know, I hear all these Republicans want to talk about how Trump, you know, lowered Biden's inflation. That Biden gave us 9.1% inflation, 27% whatever it was cumulatively over 4 years, and how Trump brought it back down and that's, you know, twos.
This is all a bunch of lies. First of all, these are not twos. The latest numbers are three. But if you look at the most recent numbers, not just the annual figures, where, you know, four or more. And the fact that this will be the worst year for the CPI since 2022 is not Trump's solution to the inflation problem.
In fact, I hear Republicans all the time talking about how much stronger the economy has become under Trump, that we had a terrible economy under Biden. According to Trump, it was the worst economy in the history of the world, and now we have the biggest economic boom in the history of the world. Few people realize that GDP growth under Trump, his first 2 years...Now the second year is not over yet, but, you know, we only have one quarter left.
But even if it's a good quarter, it won't matter. The economy grew more slowly during Trump's first 2 years in office than during Biden's last 2 years. Think about it. The economy, as measured by the government, GDP, is weaker in the first 2 years of the Trump administration than it was in the last 2 years of Biden.
How does this align with what Republicans or Trump are saying? We had the best economy in history. I mean, Trump says that nobody can believe it, that people talk to him and say, “Sir, I can’t believe it. I've never seen anything like it. We have never seen growth like this. “Well, yes, we saw stronger growth than this when Biden was president.
I mean, growth was stronger during the worst economy in world history than it is now during the best. And it's not just that the economy is weaker than Trump. And, you know, when people blame rising interest rates on a strong economy, I say, " Wait a minute, there's no strong economy." Interest rates are rising, even though we have a weak economy.
" We have a weaker economy than we had under Biden." " But not only is GDP growth slower under Trump than under Biden, but inflation is also higher." Inflation is higher than in Trump's first 2 years. The CPI will likely increase more than in Biden's last 2 years. So how can this be considered an improvement?
It's getting worse. The cost of living is rising faster. This is why Republicans are falling in the polls. In fact, just yesterday there was a Reuters poll where Trump's approval rating in that one poll dropped to 31%. This is the lowest figure for Trump, including his first term and this term. This is the lowest score I think he has ever received.
Now this is just one poll, it's not an average, so we'll see what happens, but this is the most recent poll . 31%. In fact, look at what's happening with the Ohio governor's race. So, Vivek Ramaswamy , who, you know, is a very strong supporter of Trump, he's running for governor in Ohio. Now Ohio has n't had a Democratic governor in...16 years.
And earlier this year, Ramaswamy's chances of winning were over 85%. I just looked at today's odds. They make up 26%. Ohio will have a Democratic governor for the first time in 16 years. Trump has won Ohio all three times he has run for office. However, Ohio doesn't want Ramaswamy. And I think a big reason for that is that they were betrayed by Trump.
They don't want Trump's economy. I mean, sure, there are still some loyal Republicans, you know, who will vote for Vivek, but they're going to lose this race, at least if these betting odds are right. I had no idea it had fallen so much, but it is a harbinger of the problem Republicans will face across the country as a result of the inflation problem that has worsened under Trump.
And what's especially frustrating is that Republicans deny that the situation has gotten worse . And you know, I just heard Trump again today talking about falling prices, about the sharp drop in food prices. Where the hell are you, President? shopping, what does he see as food prices plummet? Trump doesn't have any preconceived notions of prices falling sharply, and he keeps talking about how oil prices will crash, you know, after the war ends.
Well, first of all, we have no idea when this war will ever end, or if it will ever end at all. But there is no sign that this will happen. Well, prices hit a new 5- month high today. We reached $110 per barrel. But I think oil prices will skyrocket after the midterm elections because they will have to turn off the taps of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
So, oil prices will rise to 150 and then higher. And this applies not only to oil, it's everything related to energy, all prices for raw materials. This is a huge problem of inflation. You know, I mentioned yesterday on X that I got an electricity bill, I think it was for September , and it was 26% higher than the same month the previous year.
Same house, same equipment. This is a significant increase in my electricity bill. And you know, this is happening, I'm sure, all over the country. And insurance is getting significantly more expensive. I look at all kinds of streaming services. You know, I'm subscribed to quite a few of them. Netflix's earnings report was released today, but all these streaming services every year...There hasn't been a year that they haven't raised prices, and their growth is well above 2%.
They usually come in at 8%, 10% every year, like clockwork. Everyone keeps raising prices. So when Trump talks about how prices are falling everywhere, it's the same nonsense he said in December when I got kicked off Fox News. It's been almost a year. It's been, I think, about 10 months since I was banned from Fox News because I said prices were going up.
And what did I say in that interview in December? I said that oil prices would continue to rise. The administration said it expected oil prices to decline . I said, "No, they're going to..." keep growing . “And I said that the cost of living will continue to rise, that the president’s policies are not working.
It does not reduce inflation. And he got angry because he said: "I'm an idiot because I don't understand that prices are falling." Everything is getting cheaper ." "Nothing is getting cheaper." Everything is getting more expensive. But the point I'm making here is that this should be a wake-up call.
Because look at these other numbers, right? So, look at the PPI figures that came out after we got the CPI. And nobody really talked about them because, you know, everyone talks about the CPI. They don't bother looking at the PPI. Although the PPI is just a short overview of the CPI, because before consumer prices increase, producer prices increase , because it's a chain.
I run a business. My expenses are increasing. Everything I buy is getting more expensive. Now I have to raise my prices. I have to restore it. I have to maintain a profit margin. So, there is a stage of price growth. And so we can't just ignore what's happening to producers and just wait for it to reach the consumer.
But the September PPI increased by 1.3% in 1 month. This is 17% on an annualized basis. This is a huge number. What will the manufacturers do ? with these higher prices? They are going to hand them over. But even now, compared to last year, the annual increase in producer prices is 6.3%. This is a big number.
People should be alarmed, like "oh my God, we have a problem here." You know, the Fed is too soft. We need serious raises. No, actually the chances of a rate hike this month have dropped due to some comments by Worsh. So the markets don't even expect another quarter-point rate hike until December. Warsh has been leading the Fed for 5 months.
All he did was raise it by 125 basis points. And maybe we'll get a second raise in 7 months. Meanwhile, look what happened to inflation. Inflation has risen much more than interest rates. If we end up with, say, only 5% inflation this year compared to about 3% last year. This is an increase in inflation of 200 basis points.
And maybe we'll get a 50 basis point rate hike. This is not hard money. This means that interest rates... are falling. The Fed is easing policy because, in the face of inflation rising by 200 basis points, the Fed has only raised interest rates by 50 basis points. This is 25% of the increase in the inflation rate.
You won't bend the curve when you 're so far behind the curve. But the numbers suggest that it will be much higher next year. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if inflation in 2027, in fact, I would predict it. For the entire year, the CPI will increase by more than 7%. That would be more than the highest year, 2021, under Biden.
And I've said this from the beginning, that the cumulative increase in consumer prices during the 4 years of Trump's presidency will be greater than during the four years when Biden was president. And what makes things worse is that the huge increase in the cost of living under Trump is on top of the huge increase in the cost of living under Biden.
This is what makes the situation that much worse, because it was already so bad. And instead of solving the problem, which is...Trump promised, he promised that prices would go up. As Schiff points out, the official narrative of falling inflation is a dangerous myth, as producer prices are rising by 17% year-on- year.
And the housing market is falling below 2008 levels. The financial system is trapped as trillions in underwater mortgage debt threaten banks. The Federal Reserve will inevitably sacrifice the dollar, making physical gold and silver your main protection.
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