저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
연준(워시)이 금리를 동결한 것은 인플레이션을 선택한 것이며 신뢰도 상실로 채권 시장이 약세를 보였다. 30년물 금리 5.22%(약 20년 만의 최고), 10년물 4.69%로 상승. 채권 약세가 주식 급락을 촉발했고 다우 -2.2%, 나스닥100 -2% 이상. AI·반도체 주식(샌디스크 3일간 -30%) 조정을 예견대로 경험. 금리 상승은 신뢰 상실 때문이라면 금에 호재이며 금은 방어되었다(금 약 4,070달러 마감). 금은 마지막 안전자산이라고 주장.
다듬은 글
He knows that the markets are going to go down if he hikes interest rates, so he's not doing it. But he he he can't say that. So, [snorts] he just has to, you know, keep pretending uh that inflation is going to come down somehow because we got a tough guy in town who's going to talk and talk and talk and and hopefully the markets will, you know, will move based on that, based on just uh that tough talk.
You know, you know, speak loudly even though you don't have a stick. And he's hoping that the markets don't realize he doesn't have a stick. Well, what's happening now is the markets are reacting to this apparent disparity. The complete uh you know, difference between the Fed's words and the Fed's actions.
And now the Fed is losing credibility. Now, Warsh is getting a credibility problem. The markets gave him some credibility. And remember, I kept saying from the beginning, all the whole idea that he's going to be an inflation hawk, that he's going to be tough on inflation, that he's going to be another Paul Volcker was all BS.
That there was no chance that that was going to happen because politically it can't happen based on the economic fundamentals. The fundamentals are we have so much debt, this whole economy is such a massive bubble that if we actually tried to do what Paul Volcker did, we would create an economic condition much worse than what they perceive the threat to be from inflation.
So, they're not going to do anything. But at this point, I think the Fed is now damned if they do or we're damned if they do and we're damned if they don't because even if the Fed doesn't hike rates, the markets are going to crash. If it does hike rates, they're going to crash even more. So, it's not that the Fed can look at the market reaction to their lack of a hike and think, "Well, that means we have to hike." No, because when they actually hike, it's going to even be worse for the markets than the sell-off from the non-hike.
But, I think we're at a point where regardless, the markets go down because the Fed can't keep sending these mixed signals and losing all of its credibility. Because once you realize that the Fed is just BS, and and worse it's just talking, uh that uh is a big loss of confidence, especially for the bond market.
And if you're losing confidence in the bond market, well, the stock market is going to follow. And what happened to bonds today? Yields rose. The highest I saw the uh 30-year Treasury was 5.22% on the day. That is the highest it's been in about 20 years, before the 2008 financial crisis. So, this is a new high.
The yield on the 10-year didn't quite make a new high, uh because it got to 4.69. So, still didn't see it above 4.7, but we could easily be there by tomorrow. But, the decline in bonds is why the stock market sold off. In fact, the market was down before uh the announcement. In fact, I think maybe on the lows the Dow was down 7-800 points.
And the Nasdaq was down not quite as much percentage-wise cuz it got killed uh the prior couple of days. But, when we didn't get a hike, we got a rally in the market. I mean, the Dow didn't go positive. I think it may have been down 300-400 points uh at its best. But, the Nasdaq reversed and went positive.
But, when the bond market rolled over and and sold off, even though the Fed didn't hike, and in fact, not hiking is bad for the bond market because it shows that the Fed doesn't really have zero tolerance for inflation. In fact, I interpret what Warsh did today, leaving rates unchanged, as choosing inflation.
That's what he chose. He told everybody inflation was a choice, and then that's exactly the choice that he made. Well, when the Fed chooses inflation, people who hold 30-year Treasury bonds choose to sell them. And they also choose to buy gold. Gold was down, and I'll get to Let me I'll get to gold in a minute.
Let me just start with with the markets. So, the bond market sold off, and that's when the stock market rolled over. So, the market closed on the lows of the day. The Dow was down 2.2%, which is about 1,100 and change. S&P not quite down as much, 1.5%. The Nasdaq down 1.7%, but the triple Qs, which is the Nasdaq 100, that was down over 2%, and in fact, on the week now, that index is down over 3%.
As I warned on the podcast I did on on Saturday, I thought we were going to see a bigger pullback in the AI-related stocks as the air came out of that bubble. And that's exactly what happened. In fact, Meta's getting beat up after hours. It missed on earnings. Uh it's down about 10%. Microsoft beat, but it's only up a couple of percent.
But a lot of the chip stocks have gotten clobbered so far this week, like I warned. I mean, one example is SanDisk, which is down 30% so far in the first 3 days of this week, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, 30% drop. Now, sure, the stock is still way up on the year, but you know, it's been cut in half, and you know, a big move just in the last few days uh from that.
But gold gold rallied. It wasn't a big rally, but it didn't sell off. That's the key. In fact, gold was down maybe 20 or 30 bucks before we got the decision. Uh then it rallied just before the decision came, about a half hour before. Got to up 15 bucks or so. And it got as high as up $80. Um after uh um Pow- uh uh Warsh was talking during the presser, it got up to about 80 bucks.
But, when the bond market rolled over, uh that hit that hit the stock market. And um and and that, you know, cuz gold traders look at the yields and they think that rising bond yields are bearish for gold. They're wrong. They're They're actually bullish for gold. And I will get to that. We're taking another quick commercial break, and I'm going to finish up with this uh topic on the other side of of that break.
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That's ethos.com/gold. Application times and rates may vary. Anyway, I was saying that gold, which had rallied about 80 bucks, sold off, but it never went negative. It never went below the 4,000. And in fact, it closed up about $40 on the day, uh about 4,070. And silver, which was up about a buck and change at one point, sold off to about unch, and then ended up closing up about 50 cents at 57.
50. And the the reason that um gold and silver traders are worried about rising yields is they think, well, that's, you know, that's that's bad for for for gold because higher interest rates are bad for gold. Higher bond yields are not necessarily bad for gold. It depends on why those yields are rising.
And if bond yields are rising because bond investors are losing confidence in the Fed, because bond investors are worried that inflation is going to be higher because the Fed is too timid to hike rates or slow money supply growth because it's too worried about adverse effects on the economy, that is also bullish for gold because the loss of confidence in the Fed is why you buy gold.
If you're worried about higher inflation, that's why you buy gold. It's the same reason you wanted to sell Treasuries. In fact, the smart thing to do as a result of what happened today is to sell Treasuries and buy gold. And clearly, some of that happened today because Treasuries went down and gold went up.
Gold is the last safe haven standing. And a lot of people I know recently have been questioning whether gold has lost its luster as a safe haven, whether it's no longer a store of value or inflation hedge. Yeah, that's all a bunch of BS. It hasn't lost anything. All people are
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