저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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엔비디아가 CUDA 소프트웨어와 Grace Hopper 칩을 결합해 AI 하드웨어 독점에 가까운 락인(lock-in)을 형성하고 있으며, 향후 10년간 주가가 크게 오를 수 있다는 주장. 다만 독점 우려에 따른 경쟁사(AMD 등) 대응과 대형 클라우드 기업의 대안 모색도 함께 언급됨. 밸류에이션(PER 200배 vs 50배 논쟁)과 고점 대비 조정 가능성도 거론됨.
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and for this primary reason I believe that nvidia's stock might increase 100 times over the next 10 years they are basically attempting to establish a monopoly which is absurd in a situation like this a level of lockin that I believe people should really consider could be created if you have these rigs which are the most machine learning capable along with their SDK fudda which is increasingly the deao software layer to write to their h100s or Grace Hopper when it's available and the 100s so how would you respond to this if you work for a hyperscaler like Microsoft Google or Amazon how would you respond to this if you were a Facebook user this is crucial since you won't have any other options if Nvidia keeps innovating at this rate we're talking about a fascinating subject today that has been causing a stir in the tech industry we'll respond to a segment from the all-in podcast that talks about nvidia's most recent Innovative move in the AI space guys this one has wondering so let's get started this is reminiscent of Intel status as a complete outright Monopoly in the past the distinction is that even if you designed something for an Intel CPU it would still function well on an AMD processor this isn't always the case though the model must be translated if you switch from an a100 to an fpga or another silicon therefore it's critical to realize that there is no simple extension or transition here Nvidia will have a one company Monopoly and eye at the hardware layer if it keeps pushing Innovation at this rate and carrying out its current strategy what I took away from their recent statements is that Nvidia is prepared to compete head-to-head o develop in decades however I believe that people are probably beginning to consider ways to mitigate that competitive outcome in your opinion should chamoth be valued at 200 times or 50 times I'm with you the straight forward aspect of the price to earnings ratio is that if you flip it you get your implied yield correct at present rates Nvidia is yielding I believe between 2% and 2.5% Which is less than a nearly half of a normal 2-year Bond the company must expand tremendously to support that valuation when the yield is so low a fundamental tenant of capitalism is that if you're making a lot of money your Rivals will see it my chance is your profit I'm taking advantage of your margins let me tell you nidia's recently unveiled Grace Hopper chip is an absolute Beast it is a CPU and GPU combination made especially for ey applications in terms of processing capability this chip is comparable to a bodybuilder who combines strength and sprinting speed however the Grace Hopper chips inherent strength isn't the only thing that makes this so intriguing it's the way this processor works with the UDA software framework that Nvidia already has for those who may not be aware Nvidia developed the Cuda application programming interface API Paradigm and parallel Computing platform it enables programmers to take advantage of nvidia's gpus capabilities for intricate calculations this hardware and software combo is really powerful it's similar to having the most sophisticated GPS system with the greatest automobile engine you're driving more intelligently not just faster but there's a serious issue here that we must deal with the podcast guys are concerned that Nvidia might wind up controlling the market for AAR let's take a closer look at this Nvidia May effectively control the whole field of AI development if their Grace Hopper chip becomes the industry standard for a hardware especially given their already strong position with Hudda big Tech firms like Amazon Google and Microsoft might be forced to employ invidious Hardware as a result regardless of their personal preferences consider this when it comes to I Hardware these businesses may have few options additionally fewer options frequently translate into greater prices because well where else would these companies go Nvidia might raise pricing because it might inhibit competition and Innovation this possible Monopoly is a significant problem but don't worry everything is not bad this story has more than one side an intriguing argument regarding how this circumstance might potentially lead to Fierce competition is also raised in the podcast other businesses such as AMD may feel pressured to innovate and create their own competing Alternatives if Nvidia sets the standard this High the I Market as a whole might benefit greatly from this kind of competition imagine various businesses vying with one another for Superior a performance faster chip and more effective architectures this might speed up Innovation which would be advantageous to developers and end users alike the your margin is my opportunity theory in my opinion is precisely what takes place what I'm waiting for freedberg is that Nvidia will probably run away with this t announcements I think that's really dangerous however nvidia's price is actually low in that scenario however my wager which is a variant of your wager but has the same result is that I don't believe it will occur because it is simply too significant I take it that everyone wants vendor diversity except for NVIDIA you don't want to be restricted to using only one SDK or piece of Hardware from one company the only people who desire that are Nvidia and its shareholders I'm betting that you'll start to see some genuine activity over the course of the following two quarters other businesses will need to balance their projections so that Nvidia plus competitors is not just 100% Nvidia I would wager that as it just seems reasonable and correct otherwise these hyperscalers would be acting quite irresponsibly if they simply threw their hands up and handed the entire Market to Nvidia the other issue is that AMD lacks a deterministic AI chip despite having an excellent memory solution here Lisa Sue must take decisive action either construct something make an announcement or purchase something but she must do it with aggression when it comes to language models many of them are really being built with progressively less CPU GPU resources as I shown in a previous episode there has been a race or competition particularly on hugging face according to several of the researchers working on these language models there is a great deal of inefficiency just because of software and code advances what cost $2 to 3 millon ion last year now cost about $200,000 crazy huh this is what I'm thinking then nvidia's action is unquestionably audacious they are at the Forefront of AI Hardware thanks to this power play however does it actually indicate a monopoly I'm not entirely sure the tech sector is renowned for its surprising Innovations and quick Evolution competition is still very much alive who can predict what new technology might be developed to meet this challenge but enough about my opinions I'd want to hear what you folks have to say how do you feel about nvidia's approach is this only the inevitable development of innovation in the AI sector or do you see them establishing a monopoly if you would like any other changes please let me know Nvidia has already experienced a 20% decline from its peak it's down more than 30% I believe yes it cost more than $130 the stock fell 50% in 22 therefore you must own these equities as a component of a diversified portfolio rather than as your sole asset because much of its value is already priced in it's acceptable to hold it but be ready for the potential that the market as a whole may be rising while Nvidia is sharply declining of course investors are anticipating Nvidia CEO Jensen hang's speech at the Goldman Sachs communic copia conference tomorrow at approximately 10:20 a.m.
eastern more information regarding the cost of the company's Next Generation chip is what investors are seeking I am grinning because I am thinking of Elizabeth Warren Nvidia made a suggestion during the most recent earnings call that if costs increase gross margins may fall to the mid-70s although the stock has dropped almost 20% from its most recent Peak it is still increased by more than 130% in the last 12 months
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