저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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엔비디아는 AI 골드러시의 '곡괭이' 공급자로 모멘텀 종목의 전형이지만, 내재가치 기준으로 3조달러 도달은 매우 어렵다고 봄. 빅테크가 대형 모델 자원을 투입해 모델 가치를 낮추면서 스타트업에 유리한 환경이 조성되며, 계산생물학·배터리 소재 등 응용 분야에 기회가 있다고 주장. 빅테크 지출이 향후 몇 년간 스타트업 성과로 이어질 것이라 전망하며, 엔비디아 경쟁 칩 설계 인센티브 존재도 언급.
다듬은 글
if you go back to like the Gold Rush of the 1800s in San Francisco the people that made the money were the platform enablers right they were the ones that sold the pics the shovels the pans and the jeans right and that's where leby stoss was born the equivalent in that analogy today is NVA let's talk about NV again I mean you own it so you should have that big smile on your face is it defying logic to you or does this make perfect sense no I don't want to sound like a broken record but on an intrinsic value basis it's really tough to get to $3 trillion that said though if you were designing the perfect momentum company from scratch NV would be it and you've got a great story a CEO who sticks to the story no distractions is able to meet expectations in the short term because they've set the game up and you've got a market that contributes to the mix I mean I think you're seeing one of the great momentum plays of all time playing in front of you NV because they are the dominant pick and shovel provider so the question is what are we going to use these picks and shovels to create are we going to find gold and I think the question is unclear and where will that gold be found will it be found inside a big tech company or will it be found inside a startup if you look at where these resources are being used inside big Tech it is to completely Scorch the Earth on the economic value of large models models and I think that's very very good for all of the startups that come after it so what do I mean by this you know we were all wrapped around the axle with chat QT and GPT in general and now you know if you look at the quality of llama llama 2 basically these big companies have decided no we're just going to make all these models extremely good extremely useful and very very free and so a lot of the resources are going there to subsidize and by implication economically destroy the value of that category that's going to be excellent for entrepreneurs and thus the question is what will you then construct on top of these quasy free almost free tools one subject that I have been looking at for a while is computational biology I assume that tape you're talking about was just me discussing with Orin basically around the ability to compute vast complex regions with very little input it's a very difficult task today but tomorrow in an a model that you can train you can literally characterize every single molecular permutation you could imagine you combine it with something like Alpha fold and you can understand protein folding and all of a sudden you can sequentially start to put tools together that could theoretically give you far greater chance predicting for specific molecules that could actually heal disease a different version of that is a company that myself and a few other people started I tweeted that out which is more in the Material Science space and we've had some pretty important breakthroughs there which is really about trying to invent Next Generation battery materials and we have one Contender that may be really revolutionary if it turns out to work we don't know yet some favorable signals so there the platform enablers were the ones who made the money during San Francisco's gold rush in the 1800s right the pcks the shovels the pans and the jeans were sold by them correct and Levi stoss was born there NV is today's equivalent analogy in that context because they let's bring up Nvidia once more I mean you own it so you should have that big smile on your face is it defying logic to you or does this make perfect sense no I don't want to repeat myself but reaching $3 trillion is extremely difficult from an intrinsic value perspective however NV would be the company to choose if you were creating the ideal momentum company from the BR up Additionally you have a compelling narrative a CEO who maintains focus and avoids distractions the ability to meet short-term expectations due to the game being set up and a market that plays a part I mean I think that you're seeing one of the great momentum plays of all time playing out in front of you NV because they are the dominant pick and shovel provider so the question is well what are we going to use these picks and shovels to create will we discover gold furthermore the question seems ambiguous to me and where can we find that gold will it be found inside a big tech company or will it be found inside a startup if you look inside where these resources are being spent inside big Tech it is to utterly Scorch the ground on the economic value of large models and I think that's very very beneficial for all the startups that come after it so what do I mean by this you know we were all so wrapped around the axle about chat GPT and GPT in general and now you know if you look at the quality of llama llama 2 basically these big companies have decided no we're just going to make all these models extremely good extremely useful and very very free and so a lot of the resources are going there to subsidize and by implication economically destroy the value of that category startups will benefit from that the next question is what will you do with these nearly free tools computational biology is one field that I have been studying for some time I think that the clip that you're talking about was just me talking with Orin Z about the ability to compute large complex spaces with very little information it's a very difficult task today but tomorrow in an a model that you can train you can literally characterize every single molecular permutation you could imagine you combine it with something like Alpha fold and you can understand protein folding and all of a sudden you can sequentially start to put tools together that could theoretically give you much higher probability guesses for specific compounds that could actually cure disease a different version of that is a company that I and a few other people started I tweeted about that which is more in the material science space and we've had some pretty important breakthroughs there which is really about trying to invent Next Generation battery materials and we have one Contender that may be really revolutionary if it turns out to work we don't know yet but there are some positive signs so there are some of these green shoots so my perspective is that a lot of the money that Nvidia makes today is going to be money well spent because it'll be going to the big guys big Tech Plus Tesla they are then going to create some really foundational platform Technologies with it whether it's Dojo whether it's FSD or whether it's the full platform inside Tesla that includes the cameras plus the inference plus the training for all forms of physical world interaction or whether it's llama to and all of that stuff will essentially be given away I think open- source quasifree to the ecosystem over the next few years and I think that will be a really important moment which will create hundreds of new companies doing really clever and cool things so we haven't yet seen the big breakout company and so I think that right now most of this kex is going to the big guys but the dividends of all the work that these big guys are doing will be seen over the next few years years in the startups that get started in the next four or 5 years Jensen hang is speaking at CES on January the six so not that far from now you really want to get all hyped up ahead of you know the leather jacket on the stage really well look I mean Jens and Wang speeches have basically had decreasing impact on the shares they may pop it for a moment after to right I'm not saying they're not buying now I'm not saying they're chips right now now are competitive with NV I'm saying there's usually an incentive to build chips design chips that are competitive and that in fact is what they're doing so when will that start hitting nvd as demand any question
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