저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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엔비디아 AI 붐의 거품 가능성을 제기. 대규모 설비투자(연 수천억~수천억 달러 규모)가 실제 수익으로 이어질지 의문이며 H100 등 GPU 비용·공급 부족이 지속가능성 문제라고 주장. 한편 같은 시간대 기술적 분석에서는 엔비디아 주가가 $130 지지선 부근에서 조정 중이며 $140~145 콜 스프레드 등 옵션 전략 사례를 소개.
다듬은 글
this is chaff and freeberg but no shannis wasn't involved this type of money cannot be spent without demonstrating the possibility of further earnings even if this is fantastic for nvida the chickens are coming home to roost since the company's market capitalization will fall short of its proper level if revenue does not start to flow to the bottom line of these businesses who are spending 26 billion do every quarter spending this amount of money will result in penalties for all of these other businesses every year we spend $200 billion on electricity $100 billion on chips and $100 billion on all these other things where are all these new and fancy things that we're supposed to see our current expenditure is $750 billion you can replicate someone's voice but that's all we've seen so far this is on the order of a nationwide transfer payment you know it doesn't all fit together yet the general let's just get there now but I have some data I'm going to dig up on it to what extent is the current stock market boom due to the eye bubble these eye stocks particularly Nvidia are responsible for a large portion of the surge I'm not sure if the market is up or perhaps it is up somewhat if you remove the eye stocks these I don't know top five or top seven tech stocks account for a significant portion of the rise is that a bubble that seems a bit excessive to me personally I believe that the eyewave is real the challenge in my opinion is whether the amount of money being invested in cloud service infrastructure is sustainable the construction of these new cloud service centers or Cloud infrastructure data centers based on gpus rather than CPUs is now costing billions of dollars and I believe the question of whether that is sustainable is a good one the high cost of the chips is in my opinion one of the issues at hand these nvd at GP use after all cost about $30,000 each h100 right and the shortage is a contributing factor in that they are currently commanding a premium because they haven't been able to produce as much as there is demand for to be clear they are more than just a chip people often think of them as something you can hold in your palm like a chip they resemble a compromised server with thousands of parts and a very complex manufacturing process regardless they are highly cost ly I believe everyone has heard of the next stock will examine which is seeing significant growth in 2024 nearly 10% has been deducted from those all-time highs that we witnessed a little more than a month ago what do you have here at Nvidia for us as you sort of mentioned the bullish trend is still in place even though it has somewhat stalled out here the stock has had a good run over the past year but the 20 period moving average which will be in blue is now beginning to show some some resistance now $129 is the first support area you would like to see in fact there is some overlap between that upper trend line or that channel line and earlier levels of support you'd like to see some buyers intervene because that bottom support line there is also almost nearing the $129 Mark if not your next area of support will be $120 if there is a break you don't want to see any kind of break below that Tom as that volume profile's red point of control is at about $898 that's about where the 200 day moving average sits the RSI is currently producing lower highs and lower lows so that momentum signal is really supporting the retreat we've witnessed Additionally the macd is attempting to cross higher although the 12 VMA did move above the 26 dma it remains below the zero line indicating a bearish Outlook however that is something to sort of be aware of you might consider $150 to be your region of resistance if there is any kind of upward drive here there is still a lot of Confluence or trading activity at that $150 level when you look at people selling puts against their longstop portfolio as you and I both know from watching options flows virtually every trading session therefore the positive trend is still in place despite a pullback and consolidation for the time being for shareholders any deviation from the support regions I indicated would be concerning yes and throughout the past few weeks NVA has had some support near the 100 day moving average or $130 even though I don't usually look at it that 100 day moving average remained hovered just over $130 acting as a solid point of support on the other hand Jensen JW delivers a keynote address at the CES conference on January 6 he usually has an optimistic outlook on this one in what way would you like to view this one as an example trade indeed nvis fundamentals remain sound in this case and it goes without saying that any remarks made by the business or its Executives will likely be positive for the stock additionally Tom you might argue that it might potentially be a defensive stock a few days ago there was a decline in the whole stock market and NV idea actually saw a positive session if you think volatility May seep in it would be another area to concentrate on many Traders may find this to be a secure Haven in light of that let's examine the January 17th $140 $145 call spread purchasing the $140 selling the $145 and doing so for a $180 debit the trade's maximum loss will be equal to the $180 debit paid the trade has a break even point of $141.8 and a maximum gain of $320 once more this is a stock that has intraday trading potential that breaken point is absolutely Within Reach when you look at this strategy since it's not impossible to Envision $4 or $5 swings within the stock another trait that is flexible is the option to take the trade off before it expires if it does work out for you once more we've witnessed some buyers really intervene at these crucial support levels the $127 $129 level has been crucial additionally Tom buyers have intervened in the $137 level even throughout the past two trading sessions attempting to profit from an upward Trend attempting to capitalize on the possible cyclical dynamics of selling pressure in the larger Equity market and perhaps investors considering Nvidia as a safety play this could be a trade an example trade that could benefit from that if that turns out to be the case yes Kevin that break even point of $141.8 is just roughly 4% higher than the share price right now however the call vertical you are purchasing is out of the money to the upside this one will take you roughly 2 and 1 half weeks the risk as you said is a buck 80 right on this kind of trade the debit that you pay on it when you look at risk reward setups like this however the payout is quite significant if it surpasses $145 at expiration you can earn $320 yes precisely you're looking at a risk reward ratio of roughly 2 to 2 and a half to one and when you had to go a little bit out of the money there clearly those options are going to be a little bit cheaper and then you're not paying as much when it comes to intrinsic value and in fact this debit spread here here when it comes to the call side does not have any intrinsic value being put into it once more you're looking at a stock that has real movement potential because the average trading range is generally a little bit larger than the suggested volatility during the previous two trading sessions therefore if you want it to go your way you must take action however these pricing points are not new to us the stock is capable of reaching the $140 $145 level Additionally you are also managing risk in the event of any kind of breakdown you don't now have open downside risk because it is risk to finded and when you look at that risk reward ratio again roughly 2: one it appears to be a trade that many long call or even long put holders prefer to see when looking at debit spreads yes and by selling the $145 you're countering the bullish portion of this trade the $140 long that you purchased by by lowering the initial risk to enter it you're earning more than $210 on those upside calls against your long $140 additionally it decreases your break even point on this one okay if you require any other changes please let me know
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