저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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엔비디아는 AI 인프라 확장으로 향후 2~3년 매출 규모 유지 가능성이 있다고 주장하며 최고의 투자 기회 중 하나로 봄. 과거 인터넷 버블(시스코, 아마존) 사례와 비교해 인프라 지출 둔화 가능성은 인정하나 장기 가치는 낙관. 브로드컴은 옵션 전략(커버드콜)으로 헤지하며 조정 후 매수 기회로 언급. 시장 조정은 경기침체보다 성장 우려 성격으로 판단.
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you made an effort to hedge a little going into both broadcom Nvidia correct discuss with me the transactions you made before entering yes Scott last week's theory that Nvidia would be volatile with sound you never know if it will be up or down but the options Market predicted a move of almost 9% the same was true with broadcom yesterday there was strong evidence of an 8 to 9% move we therefore wrote a covered call with broadcom yesterday with a onewe expiration the annualized premium we brought in was 60% but it expires next Friday I know that sounds absurd but the hyper volatility leading up to earnings is the sole reason for that yesterday we wrote a covered call on broadcom and earned $1.76 we made $125 when we conducted the Nvidia call last week we earned almost $3 in premium over the previous two weeks by closing that out yesterday and writing another broadcom call with those two option trades during the last two weeks we were able to hedge 20% of today's fall even though the stock is down much more both broadcom and viia benefited from it although I believe there will be a buying opportunity I believe we should exercise caution before adding to the equities because they are heading lower following the jobs report last month when we witnessed the enormous sell-off broadcom has already returned to its previous level that's seems like a solid starting point for folks to purchase the dip in my opinion so you're not so much a beware it person as a buy this Market person yes without a doubt we made no purchases today more volume is returning to the market in the first week following the holidays we wanted the situation to calm down in light of last month's events we were also somewhat worried about the jobs report regardless of whether the FED will reduce by 25 or 50 basis points the market selling off appears to be more of a growth issue than a recession one even though I thought the Figures were outstanding although there is a lot of uncertainty I believe that there are opportunities we might as well bring up Nvidia since it will be mentioned prior to covid nvidia's revenue growth was negative year over-year nevertheless in early 2022 it increased by more than 80% year over-year then there was this covid hangover as you most likely recall the three major hyperscalers began to reduce their expenditures demand began to wne nvidia's earnings dropped more than 20% by the end of 2022 after having increased by more than 80% as it passed through that digestion stage the stock fell 66% Dan resisting what you're saying do you recall the early 2000s because all of the logistics expenditures weren't producing the revenue that some had anticipated for Amazon was penalized during that time however if you had been patient let's keep Traders and investors apart for the moment Amazon's Investments did pay off what makes I unique you must keep in mind that there are both short-term and long-term perspectives investors aren't being reminded that Amazon stock dropped about 95% from its peak to its lowest point personally I don't want you to go through that I never imagined that the NASDAQ would fall 78% in Just 2 and A2 years in 20 000 the deployment of this I investment has proceeded far more quickly than the expansion of the internet infrastructure consider Cisco's Netscape Navigator launch at the end of 1994 which resulted in a three-fold increase in Revenue over seven quarters since Chach P was introduced in late 2022 nvidia's revenues have increased not by three times but by five times the buildout has proceeded more quickly however the same post covid slow down that we observed in internet companies infrastructure spending is now beginning to occur Amazon comes up but you don't mention the roughly 1,000 internet businesses that went out of business during that crisis a related rail accidents will also occur there will be a lot of wreckage but there will also be a Amazon among them the greatest investment opportunity of this decade possibly the finest in your lifetime is still Nvidia I believe that nvidia's Revenue scale will likely Remain the same for the next 2 or 3 years what is the terminal value however is the actual query sack demonstrated the same thing in that Cisco slide people eventually understood that the value would travel to the application layer and other portions of the stack Cisco's Revenue multiple and credit decreased as more and more funds were devoted to the internet's application layer it doesn't matter because Cisco's income kept increasing this morning Caroline Woods has some analyst not and commentary at the New York Stock Exchange it's Monday Caroline and the US markets are open for another week how about we have a conversation about Nvidia indeed Nvidia consistently makes news and receives another price Target increase on Wall Street as of this morning Shares are up roughly 7/10 of a percent as of today Nvidia has gained 9% last week is up 20% so far in June and has gained 166 % so far this year susquehana analysts increased their price objective for shares to $1,600 adding to those gains today we'll go over why Nvidia is expected to grow significantly and why its stock is a good investment over the course of the next 10 minutes in the market for I chips Nvidia has solidified its position as a leader the need for ey technology is rapidly growing in a number of Industries such as Healthcare Banking and the automotive sector at the heart of this technological Revolution are a chips which allow for more complex machine learning algorithms and speedier processing for I applications nvidia's cuttingedge gpus Graphics processing units are now the industry standard because these processors are built to withstand the massive processing demands of AI jobs Nvidia is the preferred supplier for businesses wishing to incorporate AI into their operations in the upcoming years the market for ey chips is anticipated to expand considerably industry predictions indicate that as more Industries Embrace a Technologies the market May grow to previously unheard of heights the growing dependence on AI for data analysis Automation and decision-making processes is what is driving this increase Nvidia is in a great position to benefit from this development it stays at the Forefront of this expanding sector because to its ongoing innovation in a technology and software by consistently enhancing the functionality and efficiency of its chips Nvidia is not only meeting but also surpassing demand the core of nvidia's approach is innovation instead of sitting on its Laurels the corporation constantly pushes the limits of what its technology can accomplish significant performance gains brought about by recent developments in vidia's chip design have strengthened the company's competitive Advantage for example the hopper GPU architecture which Nvidia just unveiled marks a major advancement in a processing capacity as a models get more intricate and demanding this new architecture promises to deliver performance never before seen yes and they performed a fantastic job however the worth was reduced therefore freeberg based on this chart it's possible that Netflix or Cisco will emerge victorious in reality they receive money from hundreds of millions of customers and YouTube Facebook and Google are responsible for all of that traffic regarding the application layer who do you think is the winner here the billions of clients who will spend $20 or $5 a month or whatever it is are who let me Begin by making one crucial Point large cloud service providers are the source of that Revenue as chat noted clouds are being developed by Google and others so that other app developers can use them to create ey tools and applications large Tech corporations own and run these cloud data centers where a large portion of the buildout is located although Nvidia made $18 billion from its data center the businesses that are expanding do not consider it an operating expense
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