저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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엔비디아가 HBM·광케이블 등 핵심 공급망을 선점해 경쟁 우위가 있고, 3년 내 주가 10배 상승 가능하다는 주장. 그록(Groq)과의 경쟁 구도와 추론 시장 점유 전망을 언급하며, 미 법무부 반독점 조사는 단기 헤드라인 리스크로 본다. 엔비디아 밸류에이션은 PEG 기준 S&P500보다 낮아 매력적이라는 Paul Meeks 인용을 소개한다. 다만 공급망 선택의 지속 가능성에는 우려를 표한다.
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this is the primary factor for my prediction that nvidia's stock would increase tenfold over the next three years strategic design choices made by Nvidia include the use of particular optical cables and hbm high bandwidth memory they have a significant competitive Advantage as a result of their choices since they have effectively purchased the entire supply of these Technologies worldwide since Nvidia has obtained those resources you will be in a challenging position if you are attempting to produce comparable ships where have you been this week I was in France in Paris why did you go there a significant a Conference was held to get everyone infused Gro Creator Jonathan Ross and I had a 45-minute Fireside conversation to get things off does anything intriguing emerg from it yes I did remember a few things that Jonathan shared he began by outlining vide strengths which include machine learning and inference respectively as well as their areas of commercial expens expion he did however highlight a conflict the learning and inference elements are nearly in direct competition with one another that was a crucial explanation second he stated that given the demands of businesses like open eye MAA and others Gro will have 50% of the available inference compute by the end of next year provided they fulfill their road map across all of the main models they are able to accomplish this with a smaller physical footprint higher token per second processing and reduced power usage this is a pretty excellent Insight it will be more cost effective and efficient I'm attempting to obtain a recording of our excellent conversation so that we can distribute it the contrasts between grock andv were clearly outlined so everyone interested in Nvidia should pay attention to be honest it was cool to be in Paris what is nvidia's reaction to the notion of a completely distinct chip category that is solely concerned with they have to deal with a structural innovators dilemma which makes things difficult for them high throughput optical cables and hbm are key components of nvidia's architectural choices with regard to these Technologies they have practically taken over the market for their Current Designs this method makes logical but Nidia may be at a disadvantage if a rival adopts a completely different technique that gets around these Supply limits I didn't completely understand this until that talk but John did a great job explaining it it's also critical that Venture capitalists and Chip entrepreneurs alike comprehend these distinctions because Nvidia controls those resources they are in a difficult position if they are investing in businesses that rely on hbm or particular optical cables similar to how Intel dominated the CPU industry in the 1980s and 1990s Nvidia excels at this as well Intel established clock speed as the key performance indic indicator promoting transistor density and Moore's Law as indicators of worth the majority of customers followed the Pentium upgrading cycle since they were unaware of the subtleties and believed that clock speed was the primary performance indicator similar to this Nvidia has developed measures in a that influence the Market's assessment of value despite the fact that they don't necessarily correspond with what is actually important for performance in real world applications Nvidia is a really significant business they're performing exceptionally well and employing the same tactics Intel employee to stay in control the sustainability of certain of their supply chain and Technology choices however raise serious concerns as my knowledge has grown I believe that one important lesson is that those choices may not be sustainable we're hoping to be able to make the talks recording available soon given the significant distinctions between viia strategy and others everyone considering investing in viia should pay attention to what Jonathan had to say at 10:20 a.m.
eastern time tomorrow Nvidia CEO Jensen hang is expected to speak at the Goldman Sachs communic copia conference which investors are keenly anticipating investors are interested in learning more about the price of the company's next semiconductor viia suggested during the most recent earnings call that gross margins could drop to the mid-70s which could become problematic if costs increase although the stock is down about 20% from its most recent Peak it has still increased by more than 130% in the last 12 months today nvidia's stock is up over 1% after plunging sharply yesterday due to rumors of a do investigation according to reports the doj is looking into whether Nvidia is punishing customers who don't only utilize its a hardware Nvidia said that Nvidia wins on Merit has reflected in our Benchmark results and the value to customers who can choose whatever solution ution is best for them although there is confusion around this probe Wall Street analysts such as Stacy rascon of Bernstein believe it is too soon to estimate the regulatory risk similar incidents involving broadcom AMD Qualcomm and Intel created alarm at the time but had no long-term effects with elections approaching the overall political environment may have an impact on how antitrust enforcement targets large Tech firms like Nvidia since Nvidia is still the only game in town when it comes to I compute some experts say this probe could be a short-term headline risk While others believe that their dominant position in AI infrastructure is unlikely to alter anytime soon despite the regulatory worries some investors such as harvest portfolio managements Paul Meeks see this as a possible purchasing opportunity he contends that Nvidia is still expanding quickly and that the dog investigation may not have a significant effect on the company's long-term Outlook he advises holding off on making another big purchase until nvidia's stock retests its most recent lows yes let's pick up where we left off Paul Meeks also noted that although still high nvidia's valuation is now more realistic than it was at its peak he pointed out that with projected earnings growth of 42% the company is already pricing at almost 29 times next year's earnings because of this nvidia's price to earning growth p ratio is roughly 60 to 70% lower than that of the S and p500 as a whole indicating that despite its high price it may still be a desirable investment due to its potential for growth Meeks thinks that even though nvidia's growth might slow down a little in the near future The Firm still has a bright future he is especially upbeat about Nvidia standing in the AI industry pointing out that the iboom is only getting started and that Nvidia will likely take a sizable chunk of the trillion doll a capital expenditure Market in the years to come Meeks believes that Nvidia has established an unbreakable moat through its Innovation scale and dominance in a hardware just like Intel did throughout its Ascent despite the dog investigation and other concerns he also makes comparisons between viia and other Tech behemoths like apple Google and Amazon all of whom have survived comparable regulatory obstacles in the past how Nvidia has maintained its leadership in the AI infrastructure Market was another important topic of debate even as the competition heats up Jensen Wong and the team have strategically positioned the company by creating gpus that are increasingly indispensable for inference as well as machine learning specifically they are able to maintain their competitiveness in training huge AI models and implementing those models in Practical applications by concentrating on high performance power efficient CPUs one of the main reasons for nvidia's continued dominance in the a business is its flexibility in responding to developments in both software and hardware for it tasks the move from general purpose CPUs to gpus has been revolutionary envidia is at the Forefront of this trend customers who depend on the company's endtoend ecosystem for AI development are locked in by its latest software Ventures such as its AI Frameworks and platforms even while establish firms like AMD and Intel and startups like Gro are becoming more competitive Nvidia has a distinct Advantage thanks to their early investments in I specific architectures like their hbm based designs Nvidia is in a strong position going forward because of its capacity to scale its operations and sustain leadership in important AI Technologies despite some detractor claims that these supply chain requirements May provide difficulties in the future in the future nvidia's reaction to the intensifying Rivalry in the markets for specialist die chips such as inference will be crucial Nvidia keeps pushing the envelope with Innovations
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