저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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테슬라·AI 수요 확대 주장: 엔비디아 실적 추정치 급증(EPS 1.70→56 언급)과 빅테크 현금·하이퍼스케일러 투자 근거로 조정 후 재상승 가능성 강조. 소프트웨어(팔란티어·서비스나우 등) AI 수요 가속, 크라우드스트라이크 장애 영향 제한적이라는 판단. 시스코 닷컴버블 비교는 반박.
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and as you may know an andu has experienced these draw Downs in the past during which the stock has sort of caught up with or Consolidated its recent performances and then there has been a parabolic move do you believe that we are currently going through one of these phases where the stock is sort of consolidating before Rising on the heels of the next major Catalyst that is our opinion and I believe that as more people look at the demand trajectory for the next 69 months as well as the October quarter in the end order FL order flow is what's happening with yields in blacko which we believe could reach tens of billions in total you begin to examine a stock that in my opinion is not expensive because I don't look at a name and say oh it's gone from X to I that's CR but instead I look at the numbers you essentially had 1.70 cents of earnings power and now you'll have $56 so it's also related to the numbers and it's also as though you piece together what Jensen is discussing and what the hyperscalers are discussing nadela Amazon Google have a look at what's happening in Asia with regard to chips as it's somewhat different from anything we've seen in the past 30 years then consider potential use cases friend Anders assistance now take a look at Oracle I'm not saying it's a straight line but it is the start of a trillion dollars in a capital return one thing I would like to know is that institutional investors frequently mention this so they look at Cisco's late 9s chart and then look at nvidia's current chart and they realize that they are similar I covered Tech late at night and you covered Tech 2 Tom you know 90% of Cisco's clients back then were essentially startups with poorly funded business models many of those companies are looking for customers today I mean big Tech has cash on hand of over a trillion dollars and then look at this is a 95 call at 96 moment not a 99 movement in terms of t bubblo which is a great Point what's happening from an Enterprise perspective in terms of where these dollars are coming from I'm just saying like I'm just not a Believer where you can just throw a chart up I get the narrative but that's why that's an important issue after all as Cisco wasn't selling 100 $120,000 chip eater instead they were selling devices at far lower unit costs additionally consider the users who left moved here and even went to Nvidia citing the concentration risk Microsoft's 44% is that M for the thousands of Enterprises that eventually purchase the chips Microsoft acts as a hyperscaler in the middle it's not Microsoft but it's not like that's a concentration risk so I'm just saying it's like you're going to go and of course the Doge I mean that's like right on Q like a bad Netflix show or something you know what I mean like after that day do you know they get a subin even though it seems like it didn't even happen but we're in one of those modes right like just in terms of like nervousness September turns and and you it's going to like you've talk about Buckle the seat Bell but I believe hack is much higher the southeast 31st than is today and that's why I think we we head toward highs despite some of the Jitters macroed J reports whatever you want to talk about yeah what what you um where did those rumors start by the way for the Dodge for NV like because I saw press that boom I think there was like an AR there was an article or something like that that came out and but the the ironic thing is like if they got the sabana it doesn't SCH like our just take a step back Gobles and a trial next week versus Jet like we are just in one of those moods big Tech Bullseye it's back strong have gotten stronger Nvidia is just part of the club along with apple Amazon Google right I know there's like you're still talking about even if they get a super they're going through a process that the obviously but but that's the long process right in terms of you from an Anti-Trust perspective yeah got it great well um you know maybe I want to zoom out a little bit more almond sort of touch upon when we sat down N9 months ago and had this webinar uh you talked about a few things that you really liked um as sort of your themes um you liked I obviously and you like the software of players that are involved with AI including names like palor ETS and that you like cyber security and the importance of cyber security and I guessed N9 months later now that we're in September would love to get your take on just your latest updates on sort of what important themes and how it what changed the last 9 months yeah I think I'm look I think that the themes are there and probably maybe like the demand even accelerated more than we expected especially when it comes to the use cases I think that was something that we were not expecting use cases to just blow up in a good I like the way we're seeing as for where we are now from an overall demand perspective we probably thought we'd be here in January or February so maybe it's about 6 months ahead of where we were we expect it to be I believe the models have just reached a point where you're now seeing companies not just ready to spend but the use key across financials energy healthare and that's really the key that's that's been the fuel that's actually accelerated this whole a revolution I think names like pal Anders service now those are really names that like have been really put on the radar because that Asian I think on the other side maybe what we didn't anticipate like on the negative is like when you look at names like sales Sports and others like how I was really going to disrupt sales Cycles in soft Ware even though it's a huge Catalyst for the next 12 18 months actually think in the near term it's almost a disruptor disruptor of sales Cycles yeah makes sense so you know and I think but it goes back to the reason I always talk about star the internet we are going to go through periods there there are speed bumps and I was like we're going to go to periods where it's like things might overshoot people might overreact negative positive but that's why the reason it's my second Asia trip in the last month it's like you don't find ad Revolution ution in a spreadsheet you don't find the 154 of an office building in New York orse and I think it just come down to demand and what we're seeing and I think you come away from me as you be here in the next two weeks that speaks to the broader demand yep that's right and you know I guess one of the stocks that I did catch investors by surprise this year because of a misstep the company made is crowd strike and would just love your take on well one think it's been impressive that they retain so many customers but I guess you know your conviction level and your thoughts on on crowd strike yeah I mean historical black ey for cyber secure and obviously for Crouch I think George would say the same thing but it wasn't it wasn't a bad software update that basically we will talk about for years and I think will probably change the way software updates happen and I think that's why it was so bad you know for for crowd strike I think what's shocking in a good way is like look as soon as that happened over the next week Conan we're talking to customers integrator disruption trying to understand like RC is going to switch like what happens to sales Cycles about like it was really like 3 4% of sales Cycles got disrupted you look at the quarter for crowd strike much better than anyone could have thought if you go back two three months earlier
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