저자: 미상 · 외국인
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영상은 엔비디아가 내년 최대 $300 상승 여력이 있으나 독점 구조와 경쟁자 대응 우려를 언급. 밸류에이션은 PER 역수 기준 수익률 2~2.5%로 낮아 고성장이 필요하다고 봄. AMD와 대형 클라우드 기업들의 AI 칩 대응이 향후 2분기 내 관건. 기술주는 AI 수요와 Microsoft·Amazon·Google 투자 확대를 근거로 추가 상승 전망. 발언자들은 S&P500 6,000 도달 가능성과 10월 계절성, 연말 고점 가능성을 언급. 단기 조정 시 기회로 봄.
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the price of Nvidia will increase by up to $300 next year but I'm selling all of my shares now it's crucial to realize that there is no room for expansion so if Nvidia keeps growing at this rate it will be a one anddone business Monopoly and ie at the hardware layer and I believe that people are likely considering ways to mitigate that competitive outcome however that's what I took away from their announcement which seemed to be like they were prepared to go for the juggler here in what appears to be the most significant Market that's emerged in like what you think about the valuation chap at trading it 200 times or 50 times even I'm in your Camp the straightforward thing about price to equity ratios is that if you take the price equity ratio and you invert it that's your implied yield it's probably between 2 and 2 and a half% Which is less than a nearly half of a typical 2-year Bond consequently when you have a yield this low it must grow extremely rapidly however capitalism operates on the Prem that when you grow to the point where you're making so much profit that Rivals see you they will look at you and say hold on you don't deserve that much profit I'm going to take some of that your profit is my opportunity your margin is my opportunity I believe that exactly what occurs is your margin becomes my opportunity so I believe that I should be waiting for Freebird to happen in the next two quarters if AMD if Facebook Google Microsoft and Amazon don't make any significant ific an announcements there's a good chance that Nvidia will outperform them my mistake is that you will start to see some real action in the upcoming two quarters forcing people to adjust their forecasts so that Nvidia Plus+ plus is the only option instead of just 100% Nvidia that's sort of what I would bet because it seems reasonable and right because if not it would be pretty dear elct of these hyperscalers to just throw their hands in the air and give them the entire Market the other issue is that while a MD is a fantastic memory solution they do not currently have a deterministic AI chip therefore I believe Lisa Sue needs to take decisive action and build something announce something or buy something but she needs to be very aggressive in this regard additionally Tech analyst Dan Ives joined from Wednesday Bush and his most recent note is available today he is also present at Future proof where the CI is scheduled to begin reducing Cycle Plus add Revolution indicates optimism Tech trade ahead you persuade me that trade is firmly back I recently returned from my second trip to Asia in the last 6 weeks so it's more firm in fact I'm becoming more and more bullish because of everything we're seeing in terms of Chip demand the use cases that will eventually power artificial intelligence and the scale of hypers I mean in terms of Microsoft I think this is just the beginning of the next leg given our perspective that the A revolution is is still in its early stages I think there is a risk to the tech industry going forward that being said why has the chip trade been so erratic in the end I think there are legitimate concerns about demand softening which is why we spent so much time in Asia this speaks to the bullishness not only of Nvidia and Jens The Godfather of AI but also of Microsoft when you consider the hyperscalers as a whole that's why names like paler front and center in terms of the use case name where I believe many institutions kind of put it by the side are front and center now and you think there's enough that's not in the stocks because a lot of what we're talking about is known and expected at this point which is why the valuations and the prices have been bit up it's Amazon and Google that's the foundation that's now what I've used I mean in our opinion I believe streets under estimating numbers across the board in Tech 15 to 20% when you look out next 2 to 3 years and that's you know that's really thesis is that as these use cases build out you only have 3% Enterprise that actually gone down the eye path you have a trillion dolls of aiex coming in Scott I see it feed on the ground in Asia and that's why I get the Bears come out of hibernation mood and you know try to scare many but I think when I look at Tech I believe this is a tech Market that goes up another 15 20% going to next 3 to four months he's too bullish or no I so people were saying he was too bullish last year and here's what's happened over the last year Nvidia is the second best performer in the market up 167% on people at the start of this year in January they said okay now they're going to rotate away from the AI Darlings we're going to do something else it's 8 months later guess what the number one performing stock of the year is NVIDIA is tied with Vista core they're both up 136% so at a certain point Nvidia can't be up 136% % every single year but this idea that we're all going to be smart enough to know when this is it this is the top and it's time to rotate out it continues to fool people Nvidia continues to stay bid ey I don't disagree that we're going to finish the year strong in fact I think the S and P can finish the year at 6,000 and it's going to be driven by Tech I think what we're going to see coming out of these rate Cuts initial our Cuts is some of that cyclical movement but again I do think in the next few weeks I am a bit cautious and I think if the market does pull back a little bit it's going to be an opportunity I mean with the FED cutting rates now everybody's talking about the S roll how about October around the corner here when October's been the bottom the last few couple years in a row we've ripped out of in Tech how about the IES rule October by Tech there's only one thing about seasonality that everyone on the planet needs to know no offense to the stock market Titans Jeff HS all you need to know is that in 50% % of the eers during the last 100 years the stock market Peaks around December you may exclude the remaining seasonality based on what you have learned Jim you had some really good interviews last night I know we'll play some GS maybe from' hos or Juan but what's with all the halalu Our Endless chat about Ai and I'm assuming that everyone else feels the same way is about who needs Jensen and who doesn't if you need Jensen you're in trouble and you're worried about allocation and if you don't well then you uh have a pretty good run of the place tan doesn't need Jensen tan doesn't need Jensen Wong doesn't have to make things so that he gets Blackwell but David we can't stop thinking about the brief article you ran yesterday Larry Allison mentioned that Wong needs to make amends with Jensen and that is the true topic of conversation oracle's Revival from a 2% grower to something far larger why they've done it right with Jensen Ellison who is currently ranked second on the world's wealthiest list overthrows Bezos and overtakes Elon Musk the 20% monthly Miracle will undoubtedly assist allowing you to make the announcement strategic partnership between sales force and Vidia to enhance AI by the way I also adore Disney all right that's amazing you are aware of God's love for you sales force Nvidia Ford strategic partnership Advanced I agent so you and Jensen will have have a Fireside conversation yes Jensen is coming here right now not only that but My Neighbor Next Door invented the dpu for Jensen and he's here too David Kirk is amazing it's unbelievable that their original Chief scientist is here by coincidence is my neighbor and I said you've got to come to dreamforce does Jensen subscribe to the notion that you that agent force was is what I was meant to be I had a long conversation with him about it he's been dreaming about this idea of Agents by the way these are the guys who invented the next generation of Graphics in 2008 and 2009 do you remember the first time I bought the switch and I called you a phenomenal
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