저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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43일 셧다운이 마무리 국면이며 정책 변동성에도 기업 실적이 견조해 미국 증시 상승을 견인 중이라고 봄. 2·3분기 성장률이 당초 추정보다 크게 상향됐고 실질 GDP는 사상 최고치, 소비와 기술 중심 설비투자도 견조하다고 평가. 관세로 인해 교역국들이 무역 파트너를 다변화하고 중국 의존도를 줄이는 흐름이 가속되며, 희토류 확보 경쟁이 예상됨. 1월에는 재정 협상과 관세에 대한 대법원 판결이 변수이며, 관세 위헌 판결 시 환급 부담이 채권시장에 부정적일 수 있으나 셧다운 재발 가능성은 낮다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Let's try and understand all these dynamics. We've got Ed Yadini joining in on in the show right now. Ed, hi, good morning. Great to have you on the show. U finally that 43day shutdown seems to be coming to a halt, but uh what's the sense that you're getting because you know like we were just discussing it's funding up until only Jan 30th.
What happens after that? Yeah. Well, the Washington continues to be a source of uh volatility and uncertainty. Policym uh certainly has been that way the entire year and yet the stock market's learned to deal with that uh quite well and that's largely because the earnings situation has been remarkably strong in the face of all that volatility coming out of policym.
Uh so the first, second, and now the third quarters of this year turned out to be quite a bit stronger. The growth rate has almost been twice as fast as was uh initially thought before the actual results. So that's really what's driving the US stock market higher. Earnings have uh have gone to record highs.
Yeah. Yet uh if you can also uh you know give us a give us a perspective on the economic data that is expected over the next few weeks because that's would be that would be crucial with with from a perspective of the Fed policy which is there. Correct. Well you know for the past three years uh we've had um a the most widely anticipated recession that ne never occurred.
Uh I think the economy has demonstrated its resilience in the face of all sorts of uh very significant shocks and yet here we are with real GDP at an all-time record high. I'm betting on the continued resilience of the economy. Before the shutdown, uh we did get an upward revision in real GDP for the second quarter at almost 4%.
The Atlanta Fed is estimating that the fourth quarter numbers about the third quarter numbers around 4% and I think uh clearly the fourth quarter is going to be depressed by the government shutdown but I think going into the new year uh the data is going to show that the consumers are still consuming and capital spending remains strong led by technology.
M hi Ed this is Haria Ed you know trying to get a sense uh US tariffs does it reshape market leadership does it reshape global supply chain or do you believe it's going to be uh it's going to be status quo very very soon give us a sense of that very very good question I don't think it's going to be status quo very soon I think that uh because of uh all the tariff issues that have occurred this year uh many of our trading partners are trying to uh find um more more reliable trading partners and trying to diversify and expand their their markets around the world.
Uh we've seen that for example with Canada. Canada and and India had some uh unhappy relationships that now seem to be mending because the Canadians want to do more business in India. The same thing is going on between CA Canada and and China. And uh certainly in terms of the supply chain, lots of countries and lots of companies want to diversify away from being overly dependent on China.
The Chinese threatened to uh uh reduce the availability of their rare earths. uh they gave us sort of a one-year grace period here and I think everybody's going to be scrambling to find rare earths in other places parts of the world and uh also if you can give us an indication on uh you know we got this funding bill passed by the house uh but it only takes you till end of January so is there going to be a further showdown between both Democrats and Republicans going forward?
Well, January could be kind of interesting, right? Because uh as you said, this uh this deal is a very short deal between the Democrats and Republicans. And then also in January, it's expected that the Supreme Court might rule on on the tariffs. So, there's going to be a lot of news uh coming out of Washington.
I think that uh the president is going to find that the kind that the Supreme Court very likely will rule against him with regards to the which will be quite a problem because money will have to be returned and that could have a adverse impact in the bond market and I think uh under that under those circumstances I think uh certainly the administration would like to uh avoid another shutdown.
So no I don't think we're going to have another shutdown. I think the Democrats also got burned with this shutdown. So, I think u they're going to I don't I don't think they're going to play nice, but they're they're not they're not going to shut down the government again. Ed, uh pleasure talking to you today. Thank you very much for joining us today at ETN. Thank you.
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