저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
JD.com은 최근 1년반 주가 약세지만 ROC 개선, 매출·이익·FCF 성장, 순현금 보유 등으로 6개 지표 중 5개 통과. 자유현금흐름 수익률 약 10%로 저평가 주장. DCF 약 49달러, 그레이엄 가치 42달러, 종합 적정가 약 47.9달러(현재가 약 30달러 대비 상승여력 약 14달러). 다만 중국 소비 둔화, 제3자 플랫폼 품질 문제, 수익성 악화 리스크 언급.
다듬은 글
is one of Michael bur's favorite stocks JD a good stock to buy now welcome to Global value in today's video we're performing a fundamental analysis of JD using Warren Buffett's investing framework we'll look at six key financial metrics before we figure out three different Fair values to understand what jd.com is worth in today's stock market I'll share that at the end of the video plus along the way we'll look at two special bonuses that could be the deciding safety factors when adding JD stock to your portfolio right now JD trades for $30 $5.34 per share in its last day of trading alone it's up 2.41% since January of 2024 JD stock is up 27% which beats the market where the S&P 500 is up 20% at the same time but in The Last 5 Years JDS underperform the market they've only returned 8% even though they were beating the market up until 2023 and when we go back to when JD was listed as a public business a decade ago they've returned 53% over this time they had great performance for most of their history but in the last year and a half things have gone downhill in their stock price but right now that's not all for shareholders today JD pays a 2.1% dividend yield which is added to the gains in their stock JD is currently trading $12 below their 52e high and they're trading $15 above their 52e lows altogether they're one of the leading Chinese e-commerce businesses and have a 50 billion market cap getting started with metric number one we want their average Returns on Capital to be greater than 14 %.
Returns on Capital are like your form when you're in the gym lifting weights you want great form that way you can grow more by adding more weight over time Returns on Capital function the same and a normal business earns around 7% average returns JD unfortunately has been below that marking for the last 5 years but there's a big Trend to see here in their numbers their Returns on Capital have steadily improved from 2021 onward in this time they've gone from am measly 1% up to 8% at the end of 2023 and in JD's last 12 months they're actually at 99.3% Returns on Capital that uptrend is something great to see and it's something to continue to watch as this might be a great inflection point for the business still though their average returns in The Last 5 Years only come out to 4.5% that's just about half of normal returns and well below the Benchmark we wanted this is an x on our first metric and it's not altogether uncommon with Chinese businesses now what does JD really do jd.com is the leading e-commerce platform in China with their gross merchandise volume being similar to pinu Duo but they're still lower than Alibaba JD offers a wide selection of authentic products with speedy and reliable delivery think of it like Amazon the company has built its own Nationwide fulfillment infrastructure and last mile delivery service staffed by its own employees this supports both its online direct sales its Online Marketplace and its Omni Channel businesses next we want growth in their sales earnings and cash flows when you've got a good thing going on you want more of it right for for JD they've grown their sales by 92% in The Last 5 Years alone things really took off for the business following 2020 at the same time their earnings have doubled and their free cash flows have almost doubled as well the business is more profitable today than it was 5 years ago and it's earning a lot more too this means it's our first check of the day coming in on Metric number two one thing to note is that the company's sales have been pretty much flat for the last 3 years though that may be a factor of the pull forward in demand due to covid and weaken consumers spending in the Chinese economy now who else besides Michael bur owns the company JD is in the portfolios of five Super investors and bur's position is by far the largest with this making up 24% of his Holdings bur's betting big on China with it making up three of his top four stocks in the latest quarter JD was the company bu added to the most doubling his position toward the end of 2024 several other famous investors including David teer Howard marks and Burkshire haway board member Chris Davis also are invested in the company NeXT we want to look at JD from the view of an individual shareholder here we're looking for earnings per share growth looking at the chart in this time their earnings have bounced around somewhat though generally things have gotten better in the last couple of years 2023 was above 2019 and 2024 is even higher coming in at $3.20 per share JS also repurchased 4.6% of their shares outstanding that's even better as their earnings are up and their stock has been depressed over this time it's another check and JD starting and build momentum metric 4 is similar but even more important we want JD's cash flows per share to have grown in The Last 5 Years as well this one's different from their earnings in that JD has posted positive cash flows per share every year that even came during 2021 when their earnings were negative like their earnings though JDS continue to grow these over time with them up nearly double from where they were at in 2019 this is another check as their cash flows per share are up and so far through four metrics we have three checks and only one a for JD now before we look at the company's balance sheet it's time for our first bonus right now JD pays an above average dividend yield of 2.1% for a tech company but are their dividends safe and can they keep growing these into the future that's what we're trying to figure out with our first safety bonus where we want their dividends to be covered by their cash flows JD started paying regular dividends in 2022 and so far that's been the case they've easily been supported by both their earnings and their cash flows over this time in fact JD just has a 23% dividend payout ratio and they grew their dividends by 23% last year alone that's huge growth even though this is a small base overall with their share BuyBacks they have a decent 3.2% shareholder yield building on this momentum in our fifth metric we want their balance sheet to be in healthy shape here we want their net debt to be covered by the Su of their free cash flows and JD is actually in great shape they've had a net cash position in all five of these years and positive cash flows to boot they've reduced their cash cush in the last couple of years as they've started buying back more shares today this sits at $ 14.6 billion and in The Last 5 Years J's brought in $22.5 billion of free cash flow not only do they have a lot of cash sitting on their balance sheet they bring in a ton of cash flow and this company looks like it's in strong financial shape this is another solid check on Metric number five longterm things are looking good but let's look at the short term too before we figure out what JD is worth Warren Buffett's teacher and the father of value investing Ben Graham wanted to see a current ratio greater than 1 and a half times this is a key measure of short-term liquidity for how a company's current assets can be used to pay their current liabilities in the case of JD this has been below that 1 and a half times Mark in e to the Last 5 Years though this is special for retailers and e-commerce businesses who can have some different terms here having a lower current ratio in their case could actually signal business strength especially as they're able to get better deals with vendors we can't exactly give them a check mark here but this may not be as bad as it seems now what is JD worth the big metric of them all metric number six is our first valuation we want JD's average free cash flows divided by their Enterprise Value to give us a yield that's greater than 5% this can build in some margin of safety compared to the 10-year treasury today JD has a $45 billion Enterprise Value in the last 5 years we learned they brought in $22.5 billion of free cash flow this means that in an average year over this time they're bringing in $4.5 billion of cash flow that's exactly a 10% average 5-year free cash flow yield in the last 3 years they bring in 5.2 $2 billion in an average Year and have an 11.5% yield and in their last 12 months JD brought in $4.6 billion of free cash flow and they have a current free cash flow yield of 10.2% all three of these yields are double that of The Benchmark we wanted and more than double the 10-year treasury this is a huge check on Metric number six for JD but don't just run out and go buy the business even though this looks cheap here we still have two more valuations to look at before we figure out what the company's worth at the end of the video so stay tuned next we're using a DCF model to give JD credit for its growth woles start with an average of their cash flows and use historical assumptions to grow them into the Future Let's Start by assuming that they'll grow their average free cash flows at 5 1.2% annually for the next decade then in the following decade let's assume these Decline and only grow at 4% annually after that we'll add in their tangible Book value to estimate their net worth if we want to Market beating 15% rate of return which is the same return that Warren Buffett looks for then using these assumptions it looks like a fair DCF valuation for JD maybe as high as $49 per share please keep in mind in the last handful of years this hasn't been that predictable of a business then our third valuation technique uses their GF value which today comes in at $42 per share that's up 155% from their current stock price now Warren Buffett and Michael bur like numbers but it's really the qualities of a business that are their main draw next we'll learn what these are for JD through a long and a short thesis why don't we start with a long thesis first number one jd.com Z new free return exchange and shipping policies substantially increased its user base they've also increased purchase frequency and average order volume which has led to better than expected profit for the firm number two JD can increase the number of its merchants and their competitively priced products this means they're similar to the scale of Tau 1688 and pin Doo Duo without sacrificing margins and number three JD has adopted generative AI in its platform to help customers buy products that meet their specific demands better than compared with its peers this has led to market share gains but things aren't all positives let's look at a short thesis as well number one many customers associate the jd.com brand with a substantially poor quality of products and services and insufficiently competitive prices this has come as JD has pushed its third-party platform which has led to lower than expected sales if we think back to that us Amazon analogy the majority of Amazon's retail sales come from third party next number two JD's profitability has suffered due to higher employee compensation lower take rate and heavy investments in the business this includes the introduction of their lower free shipping threshold and number three jd.com has expanded into value destroying domains in which it lacks competitive advantages this has resulted in recent lackluster earnings growth now why don't we put everything together for JD in our fundamental review we learned that jd.com goes five for six on the select six anal Anis the company is only off when it comes to their average Returns on Capital which have been improving in the last 3 years at the same time though their sales earnings and cash flows are up and their shares outstanding are down amid repurchases at lower stock prices the company also has a huge cash cushion of nearly $15 billion on their balance sheet and they're trading at very attractive yields compared to the 10-year treasury today J is also returning some of their Capital directly to shareholders through a 2.1% dividend yield remember this analysis isn't financial advice and it's not a buy or sell recommendation of any security there are risks involved with buying Securities especially ones whose main businesses are overseas when we combine all the factors of our analysis today it looks like a fair value for JD comes in around $47.90 cents per share keep in mind fair values arrange on either side of that but that's up $14 from their current stock price and close to their street Target price jd.com looks undervalued if you enjoyed today's video and you want to support the channel click the first link in the description which will take you to interactive brokers Global values affiliate research their investment options and you can support the channel absolutely for free
Comments 0