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데이비드 테퍼의 2025년 1분기 13F 기준 상위 보유 종목을 소개하는 영상. NRG 에너지, Uber, Vistra, 알파벳, 메타, JD.com, 아마존, PDD, 알리바바 등 상위 10개 종목의 시가총액·밸류에이션을 설명하며, GF Value 대비 다수 종목을 고평가로 본다. 테퍼가 S&P500 풋옵션 등 하방 헤지 포지션을 보유한 점을 언급하며 시장 하락 가능성에 대한 신중한 태도를 시사한다. 다만 영상은 출연자의 자체 전망보다는 13F 데이터 해설에 가깝다.
다듬은 글
I'm the animal at the head of the pack. You try. Okay. I generally am. And like I said, I either get eaten or I get the good grass. David Ter owns 35 stocks in his $5.6 billion portfolio at Appalooa Management. In this video, we're covering his top 10 biggest stocks. Starting with number 10, NRG Energy.
Ter is the only investor in NRG Energy with a $200 million position. It makes up 3.5% of his portfolio. He's had a long history with this stock, but he's been buying for the last three quarters, and its stock price has recently shot through the roof. Energy is the $ 31 billion company that's one of the largest retail energy providers in the US, having over 6 million customers.
They're one of the largest independent power producers in the US, primarily based in Texas right now. Their stock has a $31 billion market cap, and it's trading at its all-time highs. With this huge recent runup in their stock price, they're trading way ahead of nearly all of their fundamentals. And this is why a GF value comes in as significantly overvalued, pricing it at only $54 a share.
That's down 2/3 from their current stock price. David Ter is an American billionaire investor, hedge fund manager, and philanthropist widely regarded as one of the most successful investors of his generation. Born in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania in 1957, he earned a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and an MBA from Carnegie Melon University.
Ter began his career at Republic Steel and later joined Goldman Sachs, where he specialized in distressed debt. In 1993, he founded Appalooa Management, a hedge fund known for its high-risk, highreward investments in distressed companies. Ter gained significant recognition for profiting during the 2008 financial crisis by investing in distressed financial institutions.
In addition to his investing, he's the owner of the NFL's Carolina Panthers and the MLS's Charlotte FC. Ter's also noted for his philanthropy, including substantial donations to Carnegie Melon University, leading to the naming of the Ter School of Business in his honor. If historically I can look behind me and I see, well, there's other animals following me.
They don't necessarily follow me that fast. Sometimes there's no other animals around when we do things. Ter's ninth biggest holding isn't a stock. It's the EyesShares China Large Cap ETF by BlackRock. He has 3.6% of his portfolio invested in that right now, although he trimmed in the last quarter. Ter's been in this ETF since the first quarter of 2024.
Since then, it's up more than 50%. With 53 holdings focused on the large cap stocks in China, it has a major waitings in Alibaba, Tencent, and Mittoan, among many other companies. Stock number eight in Ter's portfolio is Uber Technologies, ticker symbol Uber. The $92 billion ride share giant is priced at its 52- week and all-time highs.
Eight super investors own Uber and Ter. Uber is also a new huge 18.5% position from Bill Aman just this quarter alone and ter more than doubled his stake in the company as well. That's great timing as their stock price has climbed a ton since the beginning of the quarter. Ter owned Uber dating back to the second quarter of 2021 and he's added to it for the past two quarters.
Despite its increases, the stock looks like it's ahead of its fundamentals. That's why a GF value only comes in at $65 per share which is 42% down from their current stock price. Ter's seventh largest stock is Vistra Corp, ticker symbol VST. Three super investors own this stock and Ter and Steven Mandela of Lone Pine Capital have roughly a 5% holding.
Vistra is also one of the largest power producers and retail energy providers in the US. They supply power for nearly a third of Texas electricity consumers. Vistra has a $53 billion market cap and it's priced just $30 below its 52- week and all-time highs. Again, with the huge boom for these Texas electricity companies, Vistra is way ahead of a $53 GF value.
Stock number six is Alphabet, pairing company of Google with its GG shares. The $2 trillion search giant behemoth is between its 52- week high and low. Ter has a 5.6% holding in Alphabet, and 26 other super investors own the company, making it the third most owned super investor stock. Leelu, TripleFrron Partners, and Pat Dorsey all have more than doubledigit percentages of the portfolio invested in the company.
Alphabet's valuations may look the most attractive compared to its fundamentals. They're priced below their median sales numbers. They're below their earnings and their DCF based on their free cash flows. Today, their GF value comes in at $177 per share, which is up $10 from their current stock price.
This may be the only MAG7 stock priced below its GF value. Stock number five in Ter's portfolio is Meta Platforms, ticker symbol Meta. The $1.6 trillion social media giant is down $100 from their 52- week and all-time highs. Though this has rebounded nearly seven times from their lows back at the end of 2022.
Meta Platforms is owned by 24 super investors with more than 15% of the portfolios of Pat Dorsy, Chase Coleman, and Rob Venol invested in the stock. David Ter comes in lower down the list at 5.7% of his overall portfolio. Meta right now is priced at their historical sales numbers and they're right at the top end of a DCF based on their cash flows.
They're below this on an earnings basis, but well above the Peter Lynch value or their projected cash flows. Those factors combined to give Meta a $464 GF value, which is 38% lower than today's stock price. they may be significantly overvalued despite a huge rebound from the end of 2022. JD.com is next at stock number four in Ter's list.
This is the $51 billion Chinese e-commerce giant that's trading in the middle of its 52- week high and low. Ter is the largest super investor in JD with a 6% holding among five other super investors. He had been buying the stock four quarters in a row until trimming 2 million shares in the most recent quarter with an average buy price around $30 a share.
JD still looks super attractive compared to its fundamentals. They're way below their projected free cash flows and even trading below a gram number. Needless to say, that's well below their median price to sales as well. Still, there's a ton of competition in Chinese e-commerce and their returns on capital haven't always been great.
Nevertheless, their GF value comes in at $41 per share, which is 17.5% above today's stock price. Amazon.com is the third biggest stock in David Ter's portfolio. The $2.2 trillion e-commerce and cloud computing giant is trading in the middle of its 52-E range. Ter has 8.6% of his portfolio invested in Amazon, which is owned by 24 super investors.
Josh Terasoft and Altter Partners have around 20% of their portfolios invested in the company. Historically, price to sales has been the only screenable number for Amazon. That's more an artifact of historical reality, not necessarily indicating anything or anything to base an investment on. Today, Amazon's trading slightly above this.
And with potential slowdown in their growth as they become a larger company, their GF value only comes in at $170 per share, which is down 21% from their current stock price. Then the second biggest stock in Ter's portfolio is PDD, ticker symbol PDD. Pin Duo Duo is the $42 billion Chinese e-commerce company behind the namesake app and Timu with a stock price of $118 per share.
It's in between its 52-E high and low. Pin Duo Duo is owned by six super investors with a new 17% position from Norbert Louu. Ter has a 9.3% holding in the company and he trimmed in the last quarter. That stakes worth more than $500 million and he's bought or sold this going back eight quarters in a row.
Today, PINDO Duo is trading above their projected free cash flows and ahead of their Graham number, a more conservative way of valuing the company, though their lows are around that number. The company suffered from some of the tariff shock, but there's a lot of growth being priced into the company with a GF value of $26 per share.
That's up 43% from today's prices. And now, it shouldn't be a surprise that David Ter's number one biggest stock position is one of the most controversial stocks in the entire market. That's right, it's Alibaba, ticker symbol BABA. The Chinese e-commerce and cloud giant has a $296 billion market cap, and it's rebounded significantly from its 52-we lows today, trading $20 below its high.
Ter has 22% of his portfolio worth a $1.2 billion position invested in the stock. He's had a holding in Alibaba going back the last eight quarters. Although he significantly trimmed 25% of his position in the last quarter alone with an average buy price of $81 a share, he's up more than 50% on his holding.
Baba's numbers still look strong, being priced slightly below their projected free cash flows and way below their historical median priced sales. They're also around $30 above their Graham number. Still though, this is a stock that's been down in the dumps for more than 3 years. partly because of that their GF value only comes in at 100 and muted expectations for their future.
There's only a $11 GF value for the company. Now, the big news for Ter is what doesn't show up on his 13F. The largest position by far is a 30% put option on the S&P 500. This may indicate a notably cautious or bearer stance on the broader US equity market. It suggests that ter anticipates potential downside risks in the market, but it just may be his way of hedging.
That may be normal for some other hedge funds, but Ter does have a reputation for making strategic contrarian bets, especially during periods of market uncertainty. It's important to note that Ter's investment strategies often are dynamic adjustments based on evolving market conditions. This may be a proactive approach to risk management to safeguard his portfolio, but it also could be a bigger bet.
If you found Ter's investment strategy as fascinating as I did, make sure to like, subscribe, and hit the bell so you don't miss our next breakdown. Drop a comment with your take. Is Ter smart hedging or is he calling a crash?
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