저자: Paul및게스트Jimmy · 외국인
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엔비디아의 8가지 펀더멘털 필터(ROIC, 매출·순이익·FCF 성장, 부채, 시가총액 등)를 검토한 결과, 재무 지표상 과대평가되어 있다는 결론. 5년 평균 PE 133, 현재 PE 74, 적정 시총 약 800억 달러 수준으로 제시. 다만 게스트는 사업 내용과 경쟁 분석을 거쳐야 한다며 단계적 접근을 강조. 영상 말미엔 유료 구독 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
today we have a special guest jimmy from learn new investors here jimmy welcome to the show hi i'm jimmy it's good to be here very excited people love that intro jimmy is here we invited him here to akron he drove here uh we whined and dined him last night paul yes you did we had steaks and drinks and today we've been analyzing out of the restaurant that's right we were analyzing uh stocks today and we'd like to look at another one nvidia paul nvidia's the chip maker we've done this stock before this is this company is is um jimmy has not analyzed this but we'd like to get your fresh take on nvidia and paul yours too an update on nvidia using our eight pillars our software the financials we'd like you viewers at home to uh put aside what actually the company might be doing in terms of a ticker price and and let's look at the financials to see if that ticker price is justified i almost just built my coffee poll let's get after nvidia my dear so they made chips their chips are different than intel's potatoes it's designing graphics processing units i want to make comment here go on 526 billion dollar market cap intel's 214.
yep okay oh wow holy cow okay ready revenue 22 billion intel is 77 billion do you remember all these net income is 7 billion i think their profit was 18 or 20 billion their free cash flow 4 billion intel's was 18 or 16. to me immediately i'm like oh my god this just seems overpriced five-year pe 133 and that's an x hold on a minute you you wow okay you went through that fast the market cap for intel 214 revenue 77 billion in comparison to 22 billion oh my gosh a net income 18 and a half billion versus seven five year average free cash flow of 18 15 billion versus four my whole point is it doesn't mean nvidia in and of itself is expensive but go understand why maybe they're growing at 100 a year for the rest of time i say that facetiously because they're not but there might be some level where they're growing so much that over a longer period of time they could surpass intel and of course paul you're not talking about expensive in terms of a stock price because nvidia's 211 intel's 50.
now think about valuation what does that stock what does that market cap get you but look at the return on that's the capital it is higher than intel's it's 14.8 percent and last year was 24.4 so that is a check mark there so so far we have one big x and a really good check mark pillar number three is a revenue growth over the past five years paul 8.3 21.9 but look at this last year was a massive jump from 13 to 22.
usually when i see big jumps and big companies like that i wonder myself did they make an acquisition because it is very difficult for a company of the size to grow 60 70 in one year okay net income growth the last five years 2.3 to 7.8 7.08 so interesting again 2.3 4.3 2.75 3.47 doubled in one year again don't know why but we'll find out sure is outstanding killer number five baby 2.39 to 2.49 so it's an x not by much not by a lot look at their uh shares their average diluted shares outstanding so they're it's been pretty much it's the same over the last five years it could have been people exercising options a bunch of other things that could have happened now remember their total free cash their five-year average free cash was four billion what we do is we multiply this number by five and we want their total long-term liabilities as our sixth pillar yes under 20 billion dollars if it's under five it means if they just repeat the last five years over again they could pay off all their long-term liabilities within the next five years so we go to the balance sheet and my guess is it's a definite check mark we slow scroll the bottom 13 billion so they definitely are way below the five the metric of five times free castle for their long-term liabilities jimmy your take on the first six pillars our process versus what you're thinking how are those hitting your ear yeah i mean i think the pillars are very i think that they're logical i think that i like the way of you're analyzing the debt to and you're comparing it to something to see all right is it overvalued uh or not is it overvalued but is it over leveraged yeah and um i i think that the comparison to intel market cap wise and all that i think it makes sense i think that the p he had 133 over the past five years is crazy even 74 right now is crazy now intel's trading at what was it you know yeah well fine i don't think nvidia should be at 11 or 12 the market's at 20 something let's pretend nvidia could be slightly above the market that would still imply that the stock is double as expensive as it should be so one of the things i do different i don't look at where the market is right now when determining my pe i look at it and say where should the market be overall and where is this company relative to that so i think the market overall should sell for 15 times earnings that's where i start my baseline just like if the market was suddenly at five times earnings hypothetically 1982 the stock market was at 4.8 times the last 10 years earnings i wouldn't go value a company at six times earnings giving a premium i would say no it should be selling for 15 times earnings because that's the normal market we're just in a very low market so that's what i do a little bit different you know when comparing things yeah so what the point of paul and i and mo on the show we use our eight pillars to get our initial screener get a high level view of company if you start liking it we might look deeper jimmy does much more deeper dives on these companies so if you can go to learn to invest and follow him of course subscribe to his channel you can see a much more in-depth a view of some of the companies that he's investing in and uh it's very you want to talk about due diligence paul this guy is really getting after it so um we did pillow number six let's get after the seven eight seven and eight the granddaddy of them all is pillar number seven which is free cash flow growth paul want that free cash flossing you know this 1.95 to 6.67 now i do want to make note acquisitions and dispositions 7 billion and 1.35 in the last two years what does that mean again tell me they made acquisitions it's a negative number so it's cash flow out they made net acquisitions in those two years so that's why you see a big jump in revenue okay this is a big acquisition you can google it probably and find out what company did intel did um nvidia buy before july 2020 and it'll tell you so their free kestrel is increasing and the average is four billion what we like to do is dip that average multiply by 20 as a starting point for market cap 80 billion dollar market cap and a slow down man this is our pillar number eight folks so we take their free cash we multiply by 20 which is just an initial multiple to get what we think is the desired market cap let's start getting us interested and you came up with 80 paul yeah 80.
the market caps 500 and some billions so this is six x here 500 what 526 526 definite x guys and guess what at 74 times earnings in the last year it makes sense it's got to fall by 80 essentially to get to where we wanted to be and even at 526 dropping by 80 it doesn't get to our 80 billion market cap still but the point is guys it is an overpriced company and every metric we've seen so far in this fight and the financials says that wouldn't you agree jimmy i agree completely and i'm curious the free cash flow how are you guys calculating it is it just cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures okay good yeah that's the way it says if you've ever studied this stuff in a textbook they probably have more complicated ways of doing it keep it simple yeah that i think that's the simplest way of doing it and uh if nvidia was in the sweet spot jimmy where would you go from here you know one of you your more famous videos is the eight steps and you take it and properly doing due diligence on the company so where would you go from here for nvidia lovers regardless of this price yeah so the the interesting part about your process versus my process is my process is i have a different way of identifying companies uh that look good and the super short version of that is i want to see a company jump off a cliff you know i was interested in intel when intel had was down like 20 in two days okay now i'm interested let me go research it and my process is more around the the eight steps in that in that video is more analyze the business do you understand what the business does because i think that there's nothing worse than having something go wrong with the company and you didn't even know that the company did that you know what i mean you we might look at nvidia and not without digging into what the company actually does there might be huge growth opportunities that we're missing or there might be a huge problem we might read about what they do be like yeah that's going away yeah and can you interrupt real quick yeah i see these valuations here and guess what i do moving on that's exactly what jimmy said jimmy's like listen i look for a lot of value investors will sit there and say let me see all the 52-week lows that's how they read out like oh 52-week low has been hit okay let's see why that's the case for me like an individual company i don't care if they make time machines this is too expensive for me or they're going to or they're they're thinking about making time machines and if i mean well you're going to get a better value they think about making so anyways i'm and then i put a stock analyzer tool really quick figure it out and move on i agree 100 and that's what i think is the difference in the process here is let's say we go through the eight pillars and we like the company and it's you know okay this looks pretty good or maybe we're even on the fence about it well then the eight eight steps to analyze the stock that i have on my channel well now it's more okay let's really understand the business i go through reading the business section of the annual report look at the uh management discussion analysis i jotted them all down just so i didn't forget uh financial statement analysis which we're sort of getting a jump start on that here yep and then uh from there i listen to earnings calls look at some competitors and that is you know paul has the advantage of he already knows intel if uh individuals doing this if you were doing this and you didn't know any other comparison points you might not realize that this is so overpriced compared to a company like intel well at that step in the eight steps to analyzing a stock you're going to recognize wow some of these competitors amd intel these guys are doing things that makes me challenge okay is this the best company there's been many times where i started analyzing a company and then when i get to the competitor analysis i'm like no throw that one out i like this one better i don't do enough of that i just look at individual companies so i probably should do more of that but uh why don't you look at your why don't you um look at your stock analyzer tool and show us your inputs yeah okay stock analyzer tool so i have not plugged them in yet oh let me do mine you do yours so guys a lot of this growth here in the last 10 years especially of last year was acquisitions so i'm discounting this this growth big time i'm going 10 15 20 percent in fact i should probably get rid of the 20 percent but because because i saw the acquisitions let me sit here and go 8 12 16 shares outstanding share change i went four two and zero profit margin 25 27 30 free cash flow pretty similar but not exactly p e 14 16 18 price of free cash flow 14 16 18 returns 15 12 and a half 10.
the stock is currently at 211. we hit the analyze tool i mean look at this oh boy 50 bucks and guess what this thing drops by 75 or 50 bucks and i still think it has room and that's with the revenue growth being um you know double digits let's be very clear this is what we would like to pay for the stock to get a desired return this is not what we think the stock should be but it kind of is right paul well you know remember guys in the stock market you're going to get about 10 return overall over long periods of time so what i'm doing 12 and a half percent here i'm sitting there saying listen this is my value this is my margin of safety here i want to make a little bit more money because i could be wrong so i want to buy for at here or lower and right now we're not even close as opposed to coming like intel which is selling at 53 and there's some valuations that can easily put it at 70 or 80 and i do think it's a 70 or 80 dollar stock jimmy what do you think over there yeah i'm i'm tripped up on the pe what'd you do for pe over here i i did uh 14 16 18.
not 74 poll no i did not because i look at it going like okay even this company's growing i think 14 16 18 is very fair for them i'm fine with that but here's a different question right if we look at the history of the stock market yeah and i'm sure i can give you 15 i think that's a little low i think if we looked at the s p 500 over the past 50 years i bet you'd be closer to 20.
but hypothetically doesn't it make sense to lock in these numbers like the pe you know i guess you could adjust it for growth i suppose but from company to company you know if we did 15 17 i that's what i'll i'll do that i'll do 15 17 and a half and so you're saying in the software to lock it in yeah we're doing that for you guys but for the user friendly person who's trying to do it and says you know what i'm going to keep this from company to company i'm going to call this the long-term average yep that's what we're doing yeah okay and you can change it because we want to make sure that that's the case 17.5 and then i'll go 20.
i think i think that's more reasonable i believe i've looked at i believe i did a video where i looked at the history of the the p e ratio for the s p 500 in different companies and i believe it was closer to 20. i was like 18 or 19. so this by the way this is off multiple.com the historical average for pe is 16.
now it's going back to 1870. that is going back to 1870. so if you want to scroll up a little bit go back the last 50 years from here to here probably is closer to 20. you're right probably is closer to 20. but with some major bull markets here it's a major big-time bull markets what price are you getting over there jim okay so i used a desired annual return of fifteen twelve and a half and ten and then i get where's that two eleven uh 40 on the low 68 and 116.
so it seems what i would say to be crazy overvalued yeah that's and to me and i think jimmy would agree if he did this he'd be like next and he wouldn't even waste any more time on it and that's exactly the thing i think that the beautiful part about this process compared to the process that i do is that this is okay you don't my process takes more time there's no doubt about that but you can breeze through 40 companies maybe you come up with one or two or three that are hey these are great let me do it then you go through the process that i have and you're going to get to the end going not only do i like the company i'm buying i know what they do i'm confident in where they're going and it's i the entire process this is in my opinion great for you know you have an idea where the numbers are and then the only thing tell me tell me the final steps if this was green you were liking a video yeah so this is so i did company now i did competitor analysis then i try to come up with a fair value so for me i usually do discount a free cash flow this whole thing sort of gets you to a similar spot not necessarily the numbers are the same but it gives you an idea compared to the current price but to me you could hypothetically if this was close pretend it was closer i could get here it's 211.
pretend the middle number was 200. i'm perfectly happy the i have weight come up with a fair value then i have identified drivers in the stock that's sort of a different thing to see what really moves you know and it's basically go back and look at news and see what is ultimately driving for a company i've haven't looked at intel i mean nvidia so i'm not sure but for a company like intel well i know if their production slows down the stock's going to be in trouble fast so that's really what i'm focusing on that's one of the things i'm looking for but it's also the big opportunities i wait for the news to come out that production is slowed somewhere the stock will jump off a cliff and there's the buying opportunity you're looking for the final step in my process is wait for a buying wait for a buying opportunity it's not even buy the stock it is you came up with a fair value you've looked at the competitors you know the company you know the numbers now where do you really want to buy it and then once that's done put it aside i call it a bullpen i have a bullpen of stocks that i'm interested in i put it in the bullpen wait for it to get there if it's there great i'm gonna buy it if it's not there i'm moving on to the next funny you're not calling it a bear pin instead of a bullet pole um i get that joke that was good thank you um one of the things we're doing in our software too is adding a watch list that way you can add a stock to your watch list and give it twice target and get notified when that happens if you want the software behind the boys you can have it right now join everythingmoney.com uh the monthly fee gets you access to the software you can finally get a grasp on your investments tell them what they get paul guys one of the biggest things we have we have a phenomenal mobile app not many people have it um yahoo finance has it only gives you five years of data we go all the way back you get the eight pillars fully 30 years of financial data stock analyzer tool daily content we're gonna send one to two videos a day just to the software users that they're the only ones that get to see it access to all three of us real estate calculator biggest thing guys over six thousand people are in our discord community have access to discord community in an organized way they can talk to each other about all investments including crypto which i don't consider investment how much is this cents per day this is nothing you spent more getting a cup of coffee on your keurig this morning and going to mcdonald's get a cup of coffee then you spent on this software and this will change your life it'll make you hundreds of thousands not millions of dollars in your retirement and our competitors are 200 235 and guys this price goes up every single month so the sooner you sign up you're locked in that price for good that's true paul though best value play of the day definitely better than nvidia because nvidia makes me makes my nose bleed i agree click the link below click the link also to subscribe to jimmy's channel learn to invest if you want that deep dive he will give it to you uh and uh and we like this partnership hall we are hesitant with collabs but we're in love with jimmy and i think the feeling is mutual we're excited where both channels are going jimmy will be launching a patreon in the very near future so you can join his community as well and get more access to him very very exciting times and when that market tanks paul it's very exciting for us value investors let's do it thanks jimmy love you oh and by the way also follow us on instagram because i have a um fragile ego and i needed to be massaged that's true that's true thank you thanks for the insight and uh thanks for watching the video follow the thumbs up on the way i'll see you next time
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