저자: PaulGabriel · 외국인
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엔비디아 주가를 8개 기둥 재무 분석으로 점검. PER 92배·배당 0.1%·잉여현금흐름 증가·ROIC 10% 이상 등 펀더멘털 양호하나, 주가 대비 현금흐름 가치가 낮아 과대평가로 판단. 스톡 애널라이저 가정 시 현 주가 정당화엔 연 30% 매출성장이 필요하다고 결론. 유료 구독(Patreon) 홍보 포함.
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welcome back to everything money we're glad you joined us again it's seth paul and mo as always talking to our subscribers all over the world our dear patrons you know what love you today we're talking about nvidia this chip provider paul i mean when we bring up the idea of chips and it is a dog fight people are so adamant about their belief in different companies when it comes to these chips it's like that and crypto or like there's like people literally going to war in the comments about which is better they're very very uh interested in these type of companies paul and what we're going to do is use our eight pillars to get an update on the nvidia stock price its fundamentals look at some new earnings and see is their stock price justified is it over or undervalued we will get all of this from the prognosticator that is paul gabriel and mo welcome in mo fresh off of the lift i see you're just doing push-ups in your spare go ahead paul tell us push-ups why talk by the way i hear him huffing and puffing over there all right guys nvidia is a big company almost 500 billion 489 billion dollar market cap 92 p e that's an x and profit margin of 27.7 that's a check guys going forward we're probably gonna start looking more at five year pe because we like to look at longer term so and then one year at a time you can have aberrations that happen here and there but right now the one-year pe is 92 which is still quite expensive guys you know how much i love my adorable dividends point one percent dividend deal can we verify that 360 396 million paid how cute now the great thing is free cash flow seems to be growing five and a half billion last year versus three and a half billion average over the last five years guys very important for us return on invested capital is over ten percent over nine percent in the last five years return invested capital is important if you have two companies that make the exact same amount of money exact same revenue one is a higher return on invested capital you want that one because it shows they deploy their money to make more money at a more efficient rate okay so that's very important if looking at these numbers resonates with you smidge this is the gist of our channel if you're new and this is the first video before i met paul i was investing simply on ticker symbols so i would say i like this company i'm going to buy it and hope it goes up if you've been doing that and this might speak to you looking at actually the fundamentals behind what a company makes keep going paul all right so revenue growth seven and a half billion to 19.3 now keep in mind though seth there were big jumps along the way i don't know how much of this is from acquisitions versus growth we can look at that in the cash flow statement but last year alone it went from 11.8 billion to 19.3 but it's still a check mark nonetheless how about profit growth pillar number four paul two bissell versus 5.3 business check mark they definitely made an acquisition because look at our shares outstanding okay 592 to 2.5 billion so they definitely use shares by the way i love the fact they issued shares at a very expensive company to make an acquisition that's they're showing that hey we think our stock is overpriced we're issuing shares with somebody in order to buy a company at 90 times earnings we're like hey you can take this stock it's super overpriced we're basically not paying you know a huge number for this company so also still an x though balance sheet now one thing though seth go ahead we talk about the software the software is wonderful if you like the software you can get it it shows you all the eight pillars for you we're gonna skip ahead shows you all the stuff you get exclusive content let me show you exactly what you guys get by signing up for us 84 cents a day mobile app eight pillars 30 years of financial data exclusive content stack analyzer tool real estate calculator access to us three retirement calculator discord community there are over 5 000 people in our discord you can go in there talk about any investment ideas you have talking about life we have people who tell us they're engaged before they tell their family they're engaged you have people who told us that they're going to lose a relative they hadn't told anybody yeah i mean this is a very tight-knit community and it's only 84 cents a day if you sign up you're locked in that price our competitors are 200 a month 200 a month 35 a month this is the best value play you'll have so going forward if you feel alone in your investing journey join the patreon click the link below and you can join our community and talk with like-minded people paul nvidia just did a recent stock split four for one and so what is it doing to shares outstanding well that doesn't change shares outstanding for the investor sure it does change the overall shares outstanding but i'm gonna look at the last year 2.46 billion so they're very minorly increasing their shares outstanding it's not even worth worrying about dilution for them but they are slightly higher on the shares outstanding okay so let's go to pill number six which is current assets over current liabilities 18 billion versus 4 billion and in fact they have total liabilities of 12 billion which means guys they can take them basically the cash equivalents in their account and pay off all the company's debts that is awesome it's amazing i love that how about the free cash flow growth which is pillar number seven big mama jama guys part of the software is i added this line of free cash flow so you have to do the math yourself 1.46 billion wow to 5.5 with an average of 3.6 3.6 times 20 is 78 billion dollars come on nope 72 billion dollars the current market cap is 489 billion yeah so guys and look at the look at that and look at the uh look at the p e 90 p e it makes sense that the stock's going to fall significantly in value to justify normal pe now what we're going to do though is we're going to go look at the stock analyzer tool once mo is done because the stock analyzer tool that's part of our software will allow you to make assumptions on growth rates profit margins free cash flow pe and tell you what you should pay for the stock based on your desired annualized return okay so while moe's doing that i'm going to set up the stock analyzer tool mo let's go over and see if people are trading nvidia in the beautiful bid nasa nation you know i love those bid and askers so nvidia nvidia's one that the bid nest nation has been on for a long time so they got this thing back in march right when it came up through the sweet spot and people caught this entire run which is awesome kind of settled down here for a little bit and then it did a little sweet spot reversal and we had people catch this entire run up it was it was it was incredible i think it was one of the best trades that um people in the bid and ask nation have made now right now it's kind of just going sideways it's kind of teetering right on that overbought area and you can see the last time it did that it just dipped below into the sweet spot in the negative direction just and it's just consolidated sideways so i expect that it's going to probably do that again unless we get some kind of shift in the overall market the thing i want to point out go on they did a four to one split on july 20th and july 20th is about right here and typically when the splits to me are kind of for the psychology and you would think that the volume would increase because people were because technically it's a cheaper purchase price and look at the volume over that time it's actually declined and we're sitting right at the 25 day moving average now so the split didn't go as i assume plan for the company but um yeah just keep a watch on it keep a watch on this thing if it goes and makes new all-time highs you can go for it i think this will eventually be a good swing trade this is a great stock to day trade though because the volatility is there so paul we're now going to use our stock analyzer tool this is a part of the software you get at being a patron and when we move off patreon here in the next month or so you can get access to the software to determine what we should be paying for this company and all the companies well you can get access to the software today by joining our patreon as well sorry about that so um so guys here is a confusing one for in video so we went back to the cash flow statement here if you look right here in acquisitions they made an eight and a half billion dollar acquisition last year that's gonna drive up revenue so when you look at our stock analyzer tool it shows a massive increase in revenue you cannot assume that revenue increase because it took an acquisition to do so i always do my stock analyzer tool my revenue growth based on natural growth itself because acquisitions can always happen they can always sell whatever it is i look at natural growth what number is that i don't know what you need to do is if you really want the most accurate number go do some research on what their previous year's growth were without acquisitions or dispositions now i'm just gonna assume four four six and eight percent for low middle and high for share change i'm gonna assume one percent increase half percent increase and keeping the same profit margin 24 25 26 pre-free cash flow 26 27 28.
now guys pe the current pe is 92. i'm putting in 12 15 and 18. why is that the larger and larger the company is the smaller the pe is why the chances of a 500 billion dollar company going to a billion is a lot lower than in a lot harder than a billion dollar company going to 2 billion so it's going to be harder for them to grow as a company naturally with as much revenue and profit as they do now is this right i don't know and i'll show you how these assumptions still change things i put my desired return 15 12 and a half 10 like i always do analyze guys massively overpriced and it matches pe is 90 and the stock price is 200.
just to get to the high level it's got to fall by 80 you might sit there and say paul you're being too conservative okay let's go to the top and change all these numbers i'm gonna go to 8 10 12 revenue growth i'm going to keep all shares the same i'm not going to issue any more shares in pe i'm going to do 16 20 and 24.
return i just want to match the market look at this oh boy it's still massively overpriced that's my point guys it's possible to overpay for hype and growth it's very very possible i just went and changed these revenue growth numbers to numbers that i just don't think it's they made 19 revenue growth a year over the last 10 years and that's with a big acquisition along the way i just don't see in video being a company that so the question you have to ask yourself is what do they have to grow at for them to even justify the current price on a seven year analysis the first one i get is based on a 30 annualized revenue growth number and you barely squeak in on the very highest of highest sum prices that's why i like the stock analyzer tool it allows you to make assumptions and see how unrealistic that some growth rates have to be in order to justify the current price and if you're not doing this you're just it's like it's like going in a ship without any map you have no idea we're going it's like driving on the freeway we don't know what exit we're getting off of you have to have some guidance to sit there and say am i just overpaying at the end of the day it's just math guys every investment is the present value of all future cash flows that's what we're trying to do this is described in our new favorite book richard weiser happier all the most famous investors who've ever lived have the same mindset some of them call this straight up say uh you know they look at a company and just say is it cheap that's my first caveat is it currently cheap and uh this is hey look at a matter of 30 seconds that's right yeah so this company at the moment is not cheap at all and so it's in a void for us like most of our stocks but again we implore you to think what am i avoiding what are the what are the masses saying that i should probably avoid and uh and where can we find those misnomers uh to make great disciplined investments that's our channel fondue thumbs up we'll see in the next video and follow us on instagram oh yeah follow us on instagram and by the way paul we're giving away another tesla and 100 000 subscribers if you join the patreon you're automatically entered to win one of those teslas we'll be giving that away this fall thanks for watching see you guys
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