저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
중동 전쟁으로 에너지 가격이 급등해 물가와 수요가 타격받는 3단계 충격이 진행 중이라는 진단. 4월 CPI 헤드라인은 3% 이상으로 뛸 전망이나 근원 물가는 안정 예상. 시장 밸류에이션만 매력적이고 펀더멘털·기술적 지표는 부정적이라 주식 전면 매수는 보류하며, 지난주 일부 기술주(AI 플랫폼)를 저가 매수했다고 밝힘. 금은 중앙은행 매수로 장기 매력적이라 봄. 단기 변동성에 대비하라고 강조.
다듬은 글
Mohamed. Market looks pretty copacetic right now. Even with all of this news and the president's deadline coming up tomorrow evening. Are you a buyer of stocks? Not yet. And the reason why I'm not is because I don't know what's going to happen in the war. But I do know that if we continue to escalate the economic damage is going to spread from prices to demand.
And that is a completely different paradigm. You're talking about demand destruction. I I'm reading. You tell me if I'm wrong, but I'm reading into what you're saying as high gasoline prices which sailed over $4 a gallon a couple of days ago and have remained there. That's the average. I know a lot of you in other places are paying more.
But high gasoline will destroy the demand from the consumer. Yes, phase one was higher energy costs and higher interest rates. Phase two, which we're in here in the US, is a much broader cost of living hit. Now, phase three has started in Asia because as you know, not only do they have high energy prices, but they're worried about actual physical supply.
We're not there yet. We have a cost of living hit and the question is, as you say, will that destroy demand? Look at this price. Here we go. Uh for That's volatility. Can we put back uh West Texas Intermediate since the war began because you do see a meaningful jump in the price. And this is what trades here in the United States.
We have plentiful uh supplies as you mentioned. And here we go. We have seen a jump of 66%. When do you start to see that make its way through econo data? So, it's happening. We're going to pick it up as you pointed out in Thursday's CPI. Consensus is that the month-on-month is going to go from 0.3 to 1%.
Taking us well above 3% for headline. That's a huge jump. But the hope is core will be unchanged at 0.3 month-on-month. So Okay, that's because a core eliminates it excludes the volatile energy. That's correct. The big question is does energy leak into the core and the longer this war continues the more likely that's going to happen.
You know, there's economic logic in this unfortunately that you can only interrupt if you have a circuit breaker of some sort but it starts with with isolated prices then border prices then demand then you start worrying about what Jamie Diamond said today which is you'll start worrying about financial instability.
Mhm. Financial instability which is something that we're not predicting it just is that possibility and that's why you're not that into stocks. What do you make of people lately who have been calling a market bottom saying oh it bottomed last week. I think they're brave because Brave or dumb? No, brave.
Um I respect people who can make such a call. I wouldn't make it because it's not just about valuation. It's also about fundamentals. It's also about technicals. I'm so glad you have Ian Bremmer coming on because if anybody can help us understand what's likely to happen at 8:00 tomorrow night that's Ian.
Yeah, he knows. Um yeah, but if you're going to make a call right now on the market you better understand the war dynamics really well because they are in control of oil and oil is in control of lots of other things. Well, I guess people who are calling the bottom would argue that the S&P has fallen from its recent high pretty dramatically and so therefore they think that's about it.
Yeah, I mean they're making a valuation call but remember at the end of the day investors rely not just on valuations but on fundamentals and on technicals and right now there's only one thing flashing green which is valuations. The other two are somewhere between flashing yellow and red. If somebody were brave out there who's watching right now and saying you know what things have calmed down a bit.
I would like to pick up some stocks on discount." Where do you see that? So, I picked up some stocks on discount. Oh, what? Last week, and I picked up um the tech stocks a subgroup of the tech because I think they'll be unaffected, but understand that for me this is money that I can keep in the market for a very long time.
So, if you are picking up stocks here, you are buying a lot of volatility, and you have to be able to underwrite that volatility. When you say subsector of tech, can I guess was it software? Um no, it was um more of the AI platforms, and it was the ones that have both vertical and horizontal integration, which I believe will manage this process particularly well.
What else? When you look at industrials, you look at materials, you look at maybe some of the gold miners, which have been beaten down because gold has definitely fallen from its 5,500 or so high. Uh God, that was a couple of months ago. Do you like anything there? Are you you So, I do I do like gold.
I think we are washing out a lot of speculators that piled into a trade that was seemingly going to the sky, and that's what happens, but it's fundamentally driven because central banks are going to continue buying. So, the whole gold complex is something that I in my view is attractive long term, but I cannot stress enough, Liz, that we are in a world of heightened volatility.
And the trouble with volatility, and I've seen it over and over in my career, it makes people do the wrong thing. So, be careful. Just be ready for volatility because otherwise you're risking doing the wrong thing. Could I just ask you, you know, you said that we will get on Thursday the freshest piece of inflation data, and that's the March CPI, of course.
Folks, you know that the war started February 28th, so it will encompass the high prices or the higher prices that we've seen at least from the energy complex. But, where else would you be looking for some damage if it were there from the war? So, let me tell you what we're seeing and what we're not seeing it because the US really presents a mixed picture.
We're seeing on anything related to the cost of of production. So, last week we had the ISM manufacturing prices paid. That surged in a way that we haven't seen for a long time to levels we haven't seen for a while. And that's the piece of it that is inflationary. Prices paid meaning what the manufacturers are paying for it.
Correct. And what they are likely to pass on to us at some point. Well, you saw last week or week ago a week and a half ago that Amazon said, you know, what we are going to impose a slight increase, a slight charge because of the war and because of energy on the the sellers, not necessarily on the actual customer, but you know where that's going.
The sellers will then pass it on to the customer. And you've seen it. Certain airlines have increased their baggage fees as a way of trying to recoup on that. But, at the same time we're seeing an incredibly resilient real economy. So, economic activity is resilient, but inflationary pressures are building.
And that is a really interesting mix because at some point something's going to give in this mix. Does it surprise you that the best performer right now as far as sectors is communication services? No, because I think people think it is relatively isolated on that. So, it it doesn't surprise me. Could it be that they have great yields and you can park your money there in a Verizon which has a nice yield or an AT&T and get paid while you wait?
A high quality yielding asset, which is what those are, are attractive in in this environment, but again, you have to underwrite volatility. Mohamed's not picking a bottom yet. I hate that expression, but he's not calling a bottom. Is that better? Right. I'm not calling I'm just I respect those who who are willing to in this environment.
And I'll be I'll be listening to Ian very closely. Okay. So, you'll stay in the green room and listen to Ian because he is, as Mohamed said, arguably one of the smartest in geopolitics. He knows all the leaders of all the countries, especially in the Middle East. Thank you so much. Thank you.
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