저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 주택시장에서 하드머니 대출로 투기하는 바이어가 늘어나고 있다고 진단. 2011·2012년과 유사한 변동성 장세를 예상하며, 팜데저트 등 에어비앤비 과잉 공급 지역의 리스크 강조. 지역별 편차가 크므로 전국 일괄 폭락은 아니라고 봄. 주식·코인 등 대상 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here coming to you with another full self driving video on something weird going on in the marketplace now this is going to be mostly anecdotal though I'm going to tie some of this in with the data uh as you know I've been traveling the entire country studying the real estate market I am not just sitting looking at charts I am looking at charts and out on the ground in person talking to Realtors to buyers I mean course members and other buyers out on the street who are like oh I'm buying here's my situation what do you think of this house it's kind of crazy every time I go travel somewhere so I was like it's me Kevin and then we talk about their situation I love seeing you all out there but what's weird is there is a big disparity in who's buying today and and how they are buying so let me clarify this first of all when I see how they are buying I am regularly and this is insane to me I am regularly coming across other buyers who are all cash buyers but they're not the listing agents are telling me when we're writing offers as house hack because we are when we're writing offers they're like oh my God thank you for actually having cash in the bank and not being another BS and they'll actually say it like they're pissed another BS cash offer because what's happening is people are coming in they're writing offers on fixer-uppers and I've always had there's always competition I want to be very clear about that okay we we've gotten in like the three weeks we've been trying we've gotten three smoking hot deals already and we're like half trying okay like we're we're not even like all in on trying yet and it's going very well already uh the three Deals we've already got are probably each over 120 000 wedges so they're going really good the problem that we face well it's not really a problem how economy face the people who are going out of the way their way to do hard money financing and they're saying they're cash offers but they're still contingent upon a hard money Finance deal and these people are speculating now fortunately we're still getting deals because a lot of the agents are like I don't trust this crap but some of the deals that we've lost we're losing to hard money deals and we see them fall out again and they come back to us for example the last one we got I helped firm up my numbers I'm like watch guys they'll end up coming back that other deal is going to follow through and they'll come to us that's exactly what they did but there are many more that are closing to people who are purely lip speculating and let me give you some of the terms you ready for this three points so you spend six hundred thousand dollars with Renovations at three points you're paying almost twenty thousand dollars in loan fees just to get a hard money loan and now you're paying 14 interest uh that's what some of the terms are that I'm seeing and now and they'll Finance everything for you but at 14 you're paying eighty four thousand dollars a year interest only just to hold that property works out to about thirty six hundred dollars a month once you add in property taxes and insurance you're probably about forty five hundred dollars a month add to that you know Renovations and all this stuff you've got you've got a big leak and if you can't profitably sell that property especially going into now the winter months where I think prices will probably be slightly up to flat and this is really the opportunity to buy you're betting at the spring Market will be hotter now I don't care because we're buying long-term buy and holds but some of the people speculating right now I'm like this is crazy I think some people out there are thinking it's going to be 2021 all over again when rates come down and I don't think so I think we're much more likely to be back to a 2012 uh or even a 2011 where in 2011 we're kind of like okay prices bottomed the year before in 2010 and now they're kind of up and now they're letting them down you're pretty volatile in 2011.
as inventory was up but more buyers were coming out right and that's something that could happen here is you can see rates fall which leave more buyers coming out but also more inventory coming out so you get almost this this vacillation this volatility but it's not just that speculation that I see which almost in some cases reeks of desperation it's almost like some of these flippers are like I made so much money in 2020 2021 2022 now I just need to get any deal just give me any deal and even if I make 20 grand please it'll let me survive a few months longer that's what it feels like so again it's great for house hack because we're only going to do deals where the numbers make sense and then otherwise I'm just not going to buy properties when they don't make sense we buy within our wedge and we have no problem getting deals but this is an example of what I'm seeing in certain areas and what's interesting is the speculators are not everywhere for example they are not in Oregon in Oregon I don't know what it is with that market and if you look at the actual data you'll see more price drops weaker price growth and more Supply compare Oregon to San Diego okay that's where apparently all the speculators are or even like Fremont California which I don't really want to buy in there anyway but uh the rents are just too low but you have people who are even home buyers doing this kind of speculating on these hard money loans and it's just insane so I'm worried that this is a little bit of a sign that people are kind of on their last legs as competing buyers that's an opportunity for people with capital deploy obviously like house hack but it is a risk that uh I highly recommend people do not engage in I highly recommend do not speculate with hard money loans to where you're overpaying for deals trying to make 20k that's stupid you honestly should not be touching a deal unless you're making a hundred grand per 500k invested that's my POV what up uh so so anyway and that's how you know obviously I hope to IPO house hack at one at some point in the future is by taking properties people can't live in and turn those into functional on the market supplied properties but anyway that's something I'm noticing throughout the country is this the speculation has sort of ramped up but the speculation is only in the roughly under certainly under the 1.2 million dollar Mark but only 1.2 million once you start getting into NorCal most Market it seems to most markets that speculation stops about 800k and there's plenty of speculation in the 400 to 600 000 range because the monthly payments just aren't that bad even with a hard money loan in those price ranges so for example I just went through a multi-family building that was actually Four single families and it's 2.8 million dollars and it's just sitting and I'm like well it's kind of no surprise it's just sitting because the type of buyer who would buy this isn't here so that makes me much certainly like I'm like it's not gonna work for me either you know I'm not gonna overpay for this but I find it very interesting because even though we're we're getting plenty of deals there is this weird stretch going on and to some extent you see that happen in every Market certainly in 2021 people were doing this as well where they're speculating oh prices are going to Skyrocket and that worked out well but if you combine that with the speculation you've seen in Airbnb I think some Real Estate Investors are probably going to be hit in the face with the reality over the next year and I don't think that's because prices are going to plummet you know there are plenty of home buyers who are going to absorb this remodeled Supply but remodeled Supply that has to sell you want to know a market where that's exactly happening in my opinion look at Palm Desert it's a super high Airbnb Market you got to be really careful about these markets this is all the kind you know look in like 10 minutes here I'm trying to give you a synthesis of what I'm seeing on the ground and with the data with a real experience as an actual investor not as a chartist who's only telling you oh homeowner affordability is really bad no duh have you looked at interest rates no doubt on a homeowner affordability is really bad yes rents have gone up but not as much to make make buying make sense at these rates but before speculating rates are going to come down if they do they'll be right and those charts won't matter but what is a real problem is the potential Airbnb bust you look at Palm Desert remodeled home after remodel home on the market in fact there is one home on the market for every about 150 people who live in the Palm Desert compare that to San Diego or like Chula Vista where there is one home on the market for every 3 000 people that means you have roughly 30 times as many homes per capita in Palm Desert on the market as you do in Chula Vista gee why is that well Palm Desert is a vacation destination for Indian Wells the tennis competition uh Coachella it's an Airbnb Market that shit's danger stay away okay like I would not touch that with a 10 foot pole right now and that's why they say all real estate is local you can't just you know draw like take a big fat paintbrush and go everything sucks or everything's great you gotta be really careful uh then you look at like an organ where it's just like okay well why is that so weak it's not an Airbnb Market it's like people aren't speculating there or or people aren't even wanting to invest there because maybe the long-term rentals and vacancy rates are worse that's another thing you have to consider when you buy real estate would you rather buy real estate in an area where the vacancy rate is two percent or where the vacancy rate is 10 percent Colorado has a vastly different vacancy rate than South Florida okay or or San Diego for example you look at uh look at uh like a mid Market you've got somewhere around 500 to a thousand homes on the market that's like your your Utah's other parts of Cali whatever you've got about um sorry one home on the market per 500 people that's like more normal maybe one home per thousand people uh more normal Chula is one extreme and then on the Other Extreme you got Palm Desert so the point of this is to say I don't think that we are set up for this broad-based massive disastrous crash in the real estate market but I do think certain areas are going to have a lot harder of a recovery and if you are investing you want to make sure you're investing and getting good deals not in markets that are tanking right because then you're not really getting a good deal so you want to be getting good deals in hot markets ideally well certainly there's this balance of like what was it a bubbly Market but fundamentals will tell you that fundamentals will tell you do people want to live here what are the jobs why are people moving here what are the median incomes what are the poverty rates remember people always say like oh but this area is up and coming does a person with a 700 Plus credit score want to rent in an up-and-coming area no they want to rent in a nice area and then you have a tenant that pays the bills and takes care of the property right you buy properties in up and coming areas or dying towns because the cash flow is slightly better you're just signing up for a higher vacancy factor a higher eviction factor a higher repair and damages factor and you're just making your life more miserable point is you've gotta I mean maybe just watch this video back or you know sign up for we got an expiring coupon later today you already know the drill email us at Staffing me kevin.com if you want to bundle up so you're at a millionaire real estate socks psychology money everything I want to give you the straight scoop look what gets the most views on YouTube right now is everything is going to hell it's the the worst real estate recession is coming and you're finally gonna have the great reset opportunity to buy a cheap home I'm gonna give you the reality some of these markets are legitimately and fundamentally doing substantially better than others that's just the way it is that's the reality and other markets are going to suffer so it is not one size fits all anyway thanks so much for watching I'll keep you updated appreciate you and we'll see you soon thanks so much check out the courses below thanks so much and uh we might do on a house hack update supposed to be the fundraise is this September 2023 September and uh we are probably going to offer the shares to course members only since it's going to be at that one-to-one valuation so you're better off using the expiring coupon code uh to get in so you make sure you have access because once we're out of shares that we have allocated with what the SEC allows you to sell in this right hey there's a limit that's it and it's gonna be course Members First so anyway thanks so much we'll see you soon bye
Comments 0