저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 FSD 12.0과 H100 도입으로 AI 연산력이 3~9배 증가해 FSD 품질이 빠르게 개선될 것이라 주장. 엔비디아가 실질 수혜자이며 테슬라 마진은 당분간 AI 투자 부담으로 압박받을 수 있음. NHTSA 서한은 규제 위협이 아닌 건설적 의견 요청으로 해석. 사이버트럭은 저가 책정 말고 프리미엄 가격 책정이 바람직하다고 주장. 2025년 말 PER 기준 목표가 약 417달러로 제시하며, 주가가 420 부근이면 매도 고려 가능성 언급. 충전 매출 전망은 불확실하다고 보며 chargepoint 재무 악화를 근거로 경쟁사 퇴출 후 테슬라 가격 결정력 증가 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
juice my margins damn it Joseph don't underprice the Cyber truck milk this sucker probably gonna have to sell some stock just saying Game Changer hey everyone me Kevin here in this video we've got to do a complete the Tesla update from Elon Musk driving Tesla's self-driving 12.0 what this means for artificial intelligence Nvidia and some of the other world competition or lack thereof we're also going to start with the nhtsa letter on what the heck is happening with this investigation into autopilot and how it's potentially actually good news which is pretty wild uh and then we're gonna talk about what's going on with supercharging Revenue put that into some valuation models it's been a while since we've done an updated valuation model so we're going to do that in this video uh we'll also talk about some of these differences between Hardware 3 and Hardware 4.
I do quickly want to give a heads up that tomorrow we have an expiration for the coupon codes linked Down Below on the programs stocks or otherwise and house hack has started buying real estate we're already three Deals deep in just two weeks of buying real estate we expect those to contribute hundreds of thousands of dollars to house hacks cash flow reason I'm mentioning that that is because we expect to be able to do our non-accredited fundraise this well in September which is basically this month so we're really excited about that make sure to go to househack.com to be notified for when our full prospectus is ready for you to read and review since this video can't be a solicitation but we're really excited about that stay tuned for that we'll also this time have a pro forma included so that way you could see our roadmap for not only how we think we can get to tens of millions of dollars of free cash flow fast but then eventually IPO so stay tuned for that big deal so what we have on screen here is Hardware 3 versus Hardware four what I think is really interesting about this is uh we used to run all of uh the the video work for artificial intelligence on 720.
this is hardware 3 showing now going out to a 1280x960 and then Hardware 4 using even a slightly uh larger resolution works out to about 10 percent larger you can see the frame rate is a lot smoother on that Hardware 4 setup and really remember that when it comes to Tesla is running what they're doing is they're running video AI so that's very important to know because if I just pause this screen the old school artificial intelligence is going to take this screen and then ask a human labeler after Auto labeling it themselves so that is the software Auto labeling itself you're going to have an option that's going to say hey can a human labeler confirm that this is indeed you know whatever sign it is just for Simplicity let's say it's a stop sign human labeler can confirm hey is this image a stop sign we can say yes no misidentification and this is a way of training the neural net the important thing here is a higher resolution is going to help us do this from further away it is going to enable us to stitch together video footage more clearly a higher frame rate set of data is going to give us more clear data to train on but something that most miss when it comes to artificial intelligence is that the more data you feed into these systems the stronger compute power you need obviously to put all of this data together because every time you train with better data you should be retraining your algorithms your neural Nets the reason for that is usually when you have artificial intelligence the best way to train something is by using data sets that are what you're actually expecting the neural Nets to operate on let me clarify that if you're going to have old autopilot systems that are trained on still images you basically have to start over when you're using video Imaging to train neural Nets now that's because what you want is that new neural net to be hardwired based on seeing video footage rather than still images and if you then increase the resolution you honestly might want to restart your training anyway and then in test scenarios you compare what is it like when we train from scratch compared to when we train using the old methods point of this is not only does it take time but it takes a massive amount of compute Tesla and Elon Musk recently enabled about 10 000 Nvidia h-100s on Monday actually just two days ago 10 000 h100s were enabled these are data center server Hardware sets basically in a server rack you might put 10 of these in you have a CPU at the top 10 of these 30 000 chip each uh to you know thirty thousand dollar chip sets each into these servers to where you've got about a three hundred thousand dollar server rack right you put 10 into a server rack you need about a thousand of these server racks this is a massive amount of compute but Tesla's potential artificial intelligence processing power on Monday probably increased the tune of three to as much as nine X that's at least based on estimates of Tesla going from an artificial intelligence system that was operating off of many a100s the predecessors to the h100s over at Nvidia a100s keep in mind are operating at depending on what you're using them for about one-fifth to one thirtieth as fast as h100 systems and Tesla's got ten thousand h100s that just came online in other words Tesla's been able and this is the point I'm trying to make Tesla's been able to deliver us such incredible autopilot technology that we have today where when I personally drive my on my uh Tesla on full self-driving I almost don't even have to intervene anymore there's some places where it likes to borrow uh the bike lane by turning too quickly into a right like in other words when you have two rights stitched together but the first right goes into a neighborhood and the second right turns right onto the street you want to go on it likes to borrow that first Lane by cutting off the bike lane borrowing the first right and then going straight through that's a little oopsie-doopsy it's an edge case it's not supposed to do that because you cut off a bike lane that ends up cutting in front of this long and short of it is Tesla's full self driving today is already freaking phenomenal but that's trained using older systems the a100s slower it's trained using lower resolution cameras and a lower frame rate if we can now take new footage maybe hardware for footage higher resolution footage and even if our compute is the same that's right because we know with h100s our AI compute should be three to potentially 9xing right but because we're injecting so much more data and information into these servers maybe we're really just at the same level of being able to process the same amount of imagery but we're doing it with higher quality imagery what we should expect is an FSD system that's actually rapidly more capable of advancing and becoming better at resolving these Edge case scenarios from further away so that we practically have a more functional system sooner that is what we would expect and it gets us closer to that vision of full autonomy no more takeovers for those Edge case scenarios higher resolution data video artificial intelligence and auto labeling and the compute power of these new systems in my opinion aren't necessarily going to increase our AI output but they are going to increase the quality of our AI output because our AI input is going to be better that's my take so in the bottom line of this whole first segment here is really to say look yes Tesla's a and compute is exploding but what that is doing is it's almost playing catch up to what's necessary to get to the next level so I know a lot of folks are really excited about these h100s coming online but that doesn't make me excited for Tesla because I think that's the bare minimum whether it's Dojo whether it's h100s or it's both together it's the bare minimum to get to the next level but this is a sign that Tesla is properly investing in making sure we can continue to make FST better that's the whole point if Elon says that's where the margins are going to come from then let's keep making this better this is fantastic but who does it really translate to earnings for not Tesla right now it translates to earnings for NVIDIA because what's going to happen is as we continue let's say we're 90 there on FSD now then that every single one percent is honestly probably going to take another 10 000 of the latest Nvidia chip in other words to get to a hundred percent we might have to go through 10 iterations of the latest h100 chips in other words when Nvidia comes out with its next chipsets in a year from now and it's next chipsets two years from now Tesla's gonna have to constantly keep upgrading retraining the neural Nets which is fine you know we already heard from Elon which was incredible that the neural Nets are already learning hey this is a stop sign this is a speed bump without actually being told that but that's basic we already know that that's how neural Nets work for example you know look I'm not trying to compare my artificial intelligence to Tesla at all okay I'm just trying to say from my non-engineer mindset when we train we use Google's tensor cores to train our artificial intelligence at house hack I don't tell the software look for this to identify a wedge deal I get pictures that feed into us and then I say that looks like a wedge deal because mentally I'm like that's a wedge deal I'm not that's a wedge deal element that's a wedge deal element whatever and the software I don't tell it oh look for Grandma curtains I just identify that picture makes it look like it's a wedge deal and then the software starts learning okay when I see Grandma curtains it's probably a wedge deal right or it's a greater chance of being a wedge deal now there are many factors that go into that but the point is I'm not writing that into the code just like Tesla isn't writing in look for stop sign and stop there the more you train it the more it learns that it takes a lot of compute to do that but again this compute isn't a revelation this is what's necessary to get to the next level for Tesla which is awesome it's fantastic uh really really exciting so uh okay that's our AI segment and again I really think that is one of the reasons why you almost can't bet on Tesla without also being long in video I don't think it's possible I think you have to almost combine the two because they are such compliments to each other they're not competitors to each other at this point and it's phenomenal and it's these institutions that have the money to keep investing so that's my take on Tesla AI now what about this nhtsa letter okay this is actually a godsend and when I first read this I'm like oh here we go again another regulator's letter okay it's almost kind of like oh here we go again Kevin's gonna remind us about the coupon code because after all after the 31st the prices are going to go up a lot because how Sac launches its investing round in September probably gonna have to be a course member to get access to it and you're going to want to lock in those prices on the courses because before that we're giving as a free benefit to course members first dibs on house hack if we sell out of those shares it'll be it'll be over so course members will be in first uh and we'll be releasing some new lectures of course the price is going to go up because we're adding more value anyway what do we have here from the nhts say well again the impression was oh no here we go again here comes another regulator coming in causing problems for Tesla right and so basically there's this thing called Elon mode if you're not aware of it here's how it works every like 30 seconds to a minute and a half depending on how much you're paying attention or not the car basically says please apply pressure to the steering wheel now brand new Tesla owners go like okay well that doesn't work because you're not actually applying pressure to each side of the steering wheel access what you really need to do is just apply a little bit of pressure to the steering wheel access if you go too far you knock it out of autopilot boom boom uh but if you just go enough you apply enough pressure this is why people will put a weight on their steering wheel so it's always applying just enough pressure without disengaging autopilot great problem is is with this is it's somewhat dangerous as well because if you go over a bumpy road now all of a sudden that weight gets inertia up and boom boom down and then you get knocked out of autopilot right balancing and all this apparently though Elon has had exposure to potentially some kind of uh Co well but basically probably programmed this in this this code in Tesla's called Elon mode a hacker found it which basically disables the nag and we call it Elon mode because we suspect Elon was probably annoyed by the nag which is really there because that's what the Regulators want and he's like just code this in for me not to have that nag okay I I get it I don't blame it but anyway I figured okay the NH TSA is gonna get really pissed about this so it says here when enabled this Elon mode so to speak allows drivers to use autopilot to operate their vehicles for extended periods without autopilot prompting the driver to apply torque to the steering wheel the nhtsa is concerned that this feature was introduced to Consumer vehicles and now the existence of the future is known to the public more drivers may attempt to activate it basically by hacking into it and getting access to that themselves I would too if if I was able to do that I absolutely would try to activate this it's annoying as anything okay so I thought oh great here we go They're Gonna they're threatening to find Tesla 26 315 per day unless Tesla resolves this right now that that was the impression that I was left with right but wait a minute then what I did is I actually paged through the rest of this and I went through the request the definitions and the instructions which are the requests for Productions of documents blah blah blah and what do we find here on page 11.
describe in detail any differences between the setting in the subject software that reduces or eliminates instances in which autopilot prompts the driver in other words tell us about the software like how is this software enabled who has the ability to enable it how do you enable it right what's the basis for having installed it all of this I'm like oh no here we go they're gonna get pissed they're going to be pissed right what do we have here lucky number seven I cannot believe this this is a mic drop moment right here describe in detail any Lessons Learned and or findings from driving the vehicles with the subject software update enabled furnished copies of all documents related to your response wow wait a minute full stop right there for a moment this is a regulator going hey look we know you've installed this and it's concerning us but now that you've installed it um have you noticed it's safer is it actually good should we get rid of the nag entirely like tell us more are people screwing up less because there's no nag because sometimes when you're driving you're watching Tesla right you're watching your car and it's like please nag and you're like oh this is so annoying you turn it and then you accidentally disengage autopilot some people accidentally disengage autopilot when they shouldn't disengage autopilot and then they're more likely to swerve and hit somebody else than if they just didn't have the damn nag in the first place this is an opportunity for Tesla to tell the nhtsa hey you know we actually find it's safer to not have the nag and the nhtsa is open to that commentary that's what they did they just invited that commentary Game Changer it's a game changer for two reasons number one it shows that this is not a regulator who is here to shut down Tesla it is a reasonable regulator and that those words going together usually we don't speak that especially on YouTube especially in these days of everybody wanting to be like anti-3 letter organizations and anti the government and anti-bureaucracy and anti-media and also like especially in these days today people here regulator and they're like oh hell nah okay understandable yeah I'm not here to defend The Regulators what I am just here to say just doesn't sound as bad as it first seemed now of course then you've got talk again about this this probe into potentially glass being purchased at Tesla for elon's personal purposes some people are like no it's for the Cyber truck to get some uh you know uh bulletproof glass that actually works uh Tesla fired some people over this glass and people are like I don't know it just kind of sucks that all this glass was bought did was this investor money that went to elon's personal purposes it's all exhausting Department of Justice and SEC are looking into the secret glass house project do I really care about that right now no it's noise it's a rounding error of an expense it's not worth talking about so anybody who's really freaking out about that I don't care Let The Regulators deal with it and uh and realistically Tesla will probably deal with it as well what I care more about are projections for revenues in the future which we're going to talk about here in just a moment as well as potential cyber truck pricing I want to be crystal clear here because a lot of people are like oh I hope Elon doesn't rug pull us and raise the prices I hope he does as a Tesla investor I demand okay I'm not going to say I demand because then you sound like a d-bag I would hope that Tesla would actually raise the price on these lot this car is going to be so freaking desirable they should milk any sucker who wants to buy this car including myself now I know that's not what somebody wants to hear who's on the waitlist at for buying a cyber truck but any investor should be like hell yeah Kevin hell yeah finally somebody says it don't underprice this damn car they're gonna be so few of these Tesla cyber trucks produced that people are going to be willing to pay a fat ass premium for this so if that's 69 900 tri-motor ends up being inflation adjusted to 83 000 that's the bare minimum okay realistically it should be ninety nine thousand dollars juice my margins damn it juice them don't underprice the Cyber truck milk this sucker because it's gonna be the most bitching car out there on the road and they should not undersell this car because I want to see some Juiced margins because you know what it's going to tell all of Wall Street oh I sell that car with a 40 margin only sound of the Tesla Model 3 for nothing Zelda a model y for nothing who cares those are generic compared to the Cyber truck but milk that cyber truck my demand okay even the the cheap one that's supposed to be thirty nine thousand nine hundred dollars oh but I want it to be affordable so I could buy a car if you are not gonna buy the Cyber truck because it's forty seven five forty seven thousand five hundred dollars inflation adjusted or it's fifty five thousand dollars because it's inflation adjusted and it needs some margin in there and all of a sudden you're like dude damn it I can't find the Cyber truck anymore you shouldn't be buying it should be buying the stock instead actually making some money now of course I'm not your financial advisor I am a financial advisor I can give license Financial advice did you know that I now do give Financial advice I'll tell you something about the demo by the way the people who are signing up for our licensed Financial advice at stackhack.com I'm Blown Away the average age is over 30 years old and the average net worth is over four hundred thousand dollars some people have multi millions of dollars invested like the people who are coming to us for financial advice are an 18 year olds who are like somebody please spank me and tell me to buy less coffee no we don't do if you really want actual Financial advice go to snackhack.com it's a bargain for what you get we're gonna raise the prices on that as well after uh the coupon expires on the 31st which is Jack's birthday tomorrow by the way oh my God the amount of flights I have coming up oh I'm just looking at the calendar this is insane I think I got like seven flights coming up over the next seven days actually not even seven days it's probably more like four days we should Vlog it okay anyway so we're gonna do some numbers on uh uh Tesla and by the way I don't need to hear about this Dojo crap uh you know a lot of people are like Dojo will be Dojo okay they can they can grow Dojo the dojo division can grow at the same time as you can use the good stuff from Nvidia right now all right yes am I an investor in a video as well hell freaking yeah and you should be too hashtag again not personal financial advice I don't know what your portfolio is you know I need your credit report I need your bank statements I need to I need to see all your Investments I need to know your age your personality I I can't I can't give you Financial advice or all that kind of without that kind of stuff so all right we talked about cyber truck uh that brings us on to uh charging charging and then revenues and spreadsheet okay so Dan Ives made this argument that uh Tesla might be able to receive about 10 billion dollars in Revenue by 2030 uh from uh from from solely charging Revenue now I don't know about that because I don't know how much of a premium Tesla is going to be able to charge on uh their electricity that they sell I hope they can sell it for a premium and actually milk some nice margin you know 30 40 would be nice in other words they buy electricity for say 15 cents a kilowatt hour and they sell it for you know I don't know a 30 plus so like 18 19 20 cents a kilowatt hour whatever okay I want some margin it well you'd have to sell it for more because you're gonna have expenses and stuff like that so sell it for 25 cents an hour I kill one hour I don't really care just make some money on the charging the problem is we can't really build that into projections yet because we have no freaking idea I will tell you one thing we do have a freaking idea about and this is the kind of stuff we talk about usually in our course member live streams that I don't bring to all the public videos because I feel like sometimes people are like I don't know man I don't know do I want to really go through the numbers I'll just give you the bottom lines okay this is the kind of fundamental analysis that I like to teach and we talk about on a daily basis on our course memory lives I'm just gonna give you a bottom line on this one here's chargepoint okay they're blowing 110 million dollars in free cash flow it's literally the opposite of what we expect househag to be I mean this is a complete rip-off not only is it rip-off they've got 283 million dollars in cash they have 197 million dollars in short-term bills to pay at 110 million dollars in free cash flow annualized since that number that 110 million dollar negative and free cash flow was three months ended okay this is chargepoint charging company their Chargers suck at least the ones that I've tried at like Disneyland and stuff anyway at 110 a million dollars of negative free cash flow we're negative 440 million dollars of cash flow per year which means by April of 2024 unless they get their act together they have no money or accounts receivables left plus they have another 330 million dollars of long-term liabilities and taxes to pay but their shareholder Equity is literally 327 million dollars in other words you're basically if you keep going for this next year you are bankrupting shareholders with this company unless this company becomes substantially more profitable so am I really going to sit here and build in a bunch of margin for charging revenue for Tesla no because that's stupid will the competition pretty much all go bankrupt yes is that then going to let Tesla charge more and create more margin for themselves in the future yes is that going to mean higher supercharging rates yes because Tesla will have large PP pricing power duh you hear so much garbage in the EV world don't even get me started off Vin fast Min fast is the biggest pump and dump scam I have seen in years don't even get get me started on them I might have to do a separate video on that you know I had somebody this morning after we went through it in the course member live streams they're like how does the SEC approve this and then I had to teach all the course members what the sec's actual job is I'll let that sink in for a moment if you didn't watch that course member livestream yet go watch it you could always 2X and back that's actually what most people do I think we get about two to three thousand people a day who watch the course member live streams just watch them back on 2X all right what do we have here Revenue per vehicle I've got you at 45 000 Tesla and a 25 it's already coming up hey you might notice something I actually cut my estimate for how many vehicles down to 30 or 3.5 million you'll note that's a 35 gross rate okay I'm bringing their margin back to 20 average by the end of 2025.
I am not putting in charger Revenue I am putting in uh about a 5.2 billion dollar charge for um FSD take rate I'll put in 10 for energy so about 15 Bill gross for energy FSD uh margin I put an expense of basically two percent so it's basically almost pure pure margin right uh pure profit energy I only have them at 10 margin this could honestly be better uh you know 89 expenses okay whatever so what do we care more about now what we care more about is what is this going to mean in terms of how much money am I going to make in the future on Tesla stock well if the price today is 250 dollars and we have a forward p e ratio of 34 and we're going to take a PEG ratio of 1.67 which is above that right now it's like 2.4 ish it's going to put us at a future p e ratio reasonable at 57.
people get nuts when I say I'm like bro have you not learned that companies sell for about a peg of 1.6 to 2 . and uh what you do is you take the growth rate over the next four years you multiply it by a peg of 1.6 to 2 and that's your future p e ratio that's the way it works low Heap low PE companies usually have low growth simple take for example a company that has a growth rate expected of 10 and they sell for uh a p e ratio of let's say uh 15 then what you're going to do is you're going to take 15 divided by 10.
oh my gosh the price surprise 1.5 Peg see how that works lower growth lower PE and I'm still going to get comments on this I know anyway that gives us a reasonable by the end of 2025 which is only two years away now of about 417 that is 417 it's about a 30 percent compounded annual rate of growth personally I think I could beat that with house hack but I still love Tesla so anyway uh if we point of this is I think we can get to this level probably sooner through some kind of euphoric hype but let's say we got to 420 by the end of the year by the end of 2023 it probably makes sense to start selling a little bit because you're pricing in too much too much excitement and the amount of AI spend that Tesla's going to have to do to keep up with the latest and greatest in getting to those next neural net levels and they're going to give that money to Nvidia it's going to be very high it's going to take a while to get those margins back up again unless they really start cranking out cyber trucks at a premium baby print them at a premium if they underpriced the Cyber truck at the same like let me put it this way okay if the Cyber truck gets underpriced and the stock is going crazy like let's say let's say it's it's September basically now let's say it's October November and let's say it's November when they announced the Cyber truck pricing and they do the Cyber truck delivery event right they announced that in November and and Tesla stock is say 350 or 380 or something like that and they underpriced the Cyber truck probably gonna have to sell some stock just saying if they overpriced at Cyber truck and they sell all of it which they will have to subscribe to see what I'm up to thanks so much for watching check out Financial advice linked down below houshank.com and the courses on building rough coupon code inspiring tomorrow thanks so much for watching and next tim
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