저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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미국 경제는 인플레이션이 2%대로 둔화 중이고 스태그플레이션은 아니라고 진단. 소매판매 부진은 서비스 소비 전환으로 설명. 연내 2% 물가 달성 가능성 언급. 인도 시장은 좋은 펀더멘털과 선반영된 호재로 밸류에이션이 다소 부담이나 여전히 강세장으로 봄. 달러 약세는 신흥국에 우호적. S&P500은 연말 5400 가능성, 내년 6000·후년 6500 전망하나 멜트업 후 급락 위험을 경고. 외국인 매도는 선거 전 경계심리와 이익실현 성격으로 해석.
다듬은 글
Ed yini president at yini research is joining us now to take some questions Ed it's a big day uh from Global markets good morning Prashant here and thanks to joining us uh you know dollar has seen a substantial move low eels are down 910 basis points in the 10 year and uh equities of course have ried on so very constructive and uh is it looking I mean should we read take what what should we take away for Price action here the coming sessions as well uh more coming on the downside for e and dollar and maybe upside for equities yeah yeah well I yeah I I do think that uh the the data we got today suggests that the inflation numbers are still moderating the uh CPI both on a headline and a core basis excluding shelter is the both of them are right around 2% uh 2.1 2.2% so we're just waiting for rent inflation to come down we know that's a lagard and it's it is coming down even in the latest numbers so I think the fed's got a really good shot at getting 2% on the inflation rate by the end of the year meanwhile the retail sales numbers didn't bother me too much because they apply to merchandise and we've seen a tremendous pivot by consumers towards services so I would say the economy looks pretty good no Stag and no inflation as you said and quoting Jerome poell no stag deflation got that uh but the economy is looking pretty good even here in India I mean uh growth has been coming back inflation is largely under control and we have a huge event upon us which is the general elections um how are you feeling about the Indian market now do you think this could be another good year for Equity Market investors well it's been a very good couple of years all already the Indian Market has discounted a tremendous amount of positive news and looking ahead the perception of investors is that things are going to get better and I think that makes a lot of sense I think it's some maybe there could be some valuation issues but all in all the uh prospects for the Indian economy are quite good and and for the stock market as well and I think that if we do get a scenario here where the dollar doesn't keep going up it goes down a little bit that would help emerging markets in general and India in particular Ed uh three questions one is a July rate cut on the table now and two 50 basis points of rate cuts for this year by the fed and three you also said that if the FED does start to a lower interest rate that could create a melt up on the S&P 500 and then perhaps 6,000 uh is also on the cards by the end of this year well anything is possible uh in in these markets I suppose uh not anything but uh that we do have something that's starting to feel very much like a melt up I've been thinking uh over for over a year that we could get to 5400 on the S&P 500 by the end of this year and that uh was one of the more optimistic outlooks and here we are only what about a 100 points away from getting there so we could very easily get to 5400 and yes I'm looking for 6,000 next year and 6,500 the year after that and a melt-up scenario we have to consider the possibility that all of this could happen a lot faster and in that case uh this would be the analogy would uh be something like the 1990s the last half of the 1990s where the stock market discounts of tremendous amount of good news and then it set it sets itself up for a meltdown I'm not rooting for a melt up melt UPS can be a lot of fun we can make a lot of money but we have to remember to get out of the top and then what then then we have to wait wait around until the bull market comes back but at this point I think the fundamentals are looking quite good uh the Market's got earnings on its side valuation is a bit stretched but all in all it's still a bull market uh Ed uh you know here in India because fi have been sort of sellers big sellers right in main even before this over the last couple of months this debate and now because we are sort of closer to elections and in the election cycle results are in early June this debate is on that why are f is selling is it because they're uh nervous of because of Elections or is it the global cycle a little bit of course also the shift to China because Chinese markets uh seem to be has seem to have bottomed a little bit and seeing a bit of a bounce uh which one of the two sort of uh appeals to you well I I think that uh you know people sometimes sell on the news so perhaps as uh you know the election results become uh more uh more apparent or or easier to to to Divine to understand uh we may have some selling just kind of a knee-jerk profit taking look I think India's uh stock market problem is too much of a good thing it's uh done extremely well are people that have booked that have a a lot of profits and may want to book them along the way here but at the end of the day it's still going to be a matter of fundamentals and valuation and I think the fundamentals are looking good the valuation is a bit stretched the way it is in the in the United States okay Ed we let let you go on that note thank you so much for joining us appreciate your time here on CNBC TV8 have a good rest of the week well that is Ed yardin the president at yardney research about how to approach the markets let's
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