저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee은 암호화폐가 레버리지 해소와 금·은 쏠림(FOMO) 영향으로 예상보다 크게 부진했지만 펀더멘털(이더리움 활성 주소 급증, 월가의 디지털자산 확대)은 양호하다고 봄. 워싱턴 정책 불확실성과 새 연준 의장 검증 과정으로 중반까지 변동성이 클 수 있다고 전망. 1월 주가 상승 시 연간 상승 확률이 높다는 통계를 근거로 제시하며 AI 대형주는 평균회귀 위험을 언급. 비트코인은 7.7만 달러, 이더리움 2400달러 목표를 유지하며 반등 시점을 암시.
다듬은 글
that that you didn't call this Tom because it was the beginning of the year. You were talking about did did you use the word uh speed bumps or volatility or I don't know what it was but you also said that it a lot of it could be based on things coming out of Washington that the market was going to be held hostage of that to some extent.
Is is this worse than you expected or pretty much uh what you were thinking? Um well and parts of it have been much worse. Like you know how I I think the crypto market has taken it much worse than we expected. Um why? I think part of it is the crypto industry doesn't have any leverage right now. It sort of delevered in October and now when we have gold and silver doing so well especially at the start of the year that created FOMO and that was like a vortex sucking all risk appetite towards the precious metals trade.
So I think crypto has suffered from that on a price basis at a time when the fundamentals have been good. You know it's it's been a contrast. I think the broader economy is actually in good shape. So to me the turmoil here is kind of what you said. There's a lot of uncertainty because of Washington picking winners and losers and some of this could be the new Fed pick.
Um but I but I'm also kind of heartened. I think gold and silver taking a breather is actually a good thing. A breather. I mean 80 on silver that it isn't really that's not breathing yet. Uh it's it's like I don't know what that is. Um you you you do point out that the consensus now is for the the GOP to lose the house and that is not necessarily a negative for the markets
for the future because it's already consensus. Yeah, I think it's consensus. Uh it might actually be a positive surprise if the GOP keeps the house. Um if that were to happen. If that were to happen. But that's a big if. I think one of the things that we're seeing, of course, this year is uh the White House is is deliberately picking more winners and losers early.
I think because of the midterms, in other words, they're alleged their agenda is front and loaded. I think that has caused some turmoil in markets. Even if it was Hasset or I don't know, I don't know who would the markets would have liked, but you think no matter who it is that the market tests the new Fed, the new chairman of the Fed when he's announced or she is announced?
We saw that with uh Fed Chair Yelen and Fed Chair Powell that in the early days the market tests them whether it's their resolve around policy or rates. So I think the confirmation process creates a little uncertainty and then I think the first FOMC meeting. So it I think that's why the middle of the year could be quite bumpy.
You um then you'd point out some things maybe to to get keep everyone a little bit grounded. Stocks were up the first five days of this year. Stocks are up 1% in January of this year. Since 1950, um that's happened about half a little bit less 36 times of 76 years. And the S&P was up 18% on average after a start like that.
But I thought you said it someone recently said they don't even pay attention. I David Bond said don't even pay attention to what happens in January. That that indicator doesn't work. It's like the Super Bowl indicator. It's had its had its time and work. You think it does historically? This is important here.
Yeah, it's very telling. I mean there's 36 times when it happened just exactly as you described. 33 to 36 times the market was up the average gains 18%. If you look at the non 36 instances the other 34 or so the market on average is down 5% for the year. So it makes a huge difference to do well in the first week in the first month.
A lot of this uh obviously you know the giveth and taketh away AI went almost not like gold and silver but kind of I mean asmtoic and a lot of those stocks trillions of dollars of valuation so that's going to be tough that could be a headwind is that just you know regresses or we use regret mean regression or reverse
yeah mean reverts. Yeah. Which do you like better reverse? You know I could use I could see both working. I know. I know. Uh all right. So that that could be a problem. What And so crypto didn't doesn't have leverage right now. Is it going to go to the levels that you have talked about in the past still?
Or let's say 75,000 for Bitcoin. Is that a place where people would say, "Okay, I'm ready to buy." Or is 40,000 place where people say, "I'm ready to buy." Okay, I'm going to say something that does it sounds a little contrarian, but Tom Demar is our advisor mine in terms of crypto. He's been since mid mid November saying Bitcoin would go to 77 and Ethereum 2400.
So, he's been waiting for what what he calls time and price to align. This weekend, he believes we reach that alignment. So he he all the pieces are in place for crypto to be bottoming right now because we're getting the level and enough time has passed. So I think as long as crypto fundamentals are good which is the case you know Ethereum active addresses is going parabolic right now and activity part of it is of course Wall Street is building on digital assets and converging the those businesses.
If that's the case then crypto prices should follow. whether he is going to leave the country by the end of the month. Is that the month just came and went? By the way, am I what's where is it now? Am I making money or losing money? I thought you Yeah, I bet he was. You thought he was skipping skipping time.
You thought I was going to touch Canada's border and come back, right? Well, Canada really wouldn't be leaving this. So, that's allowed to bet. Were you allowed to bet on that yourself? Uh, indeed you can. And that's the thing like there's a lot of bets that are outcome based that you know you can you can control.
Correct. Like if I boarded a ship that went to international waters and came back you know. Have you have you bet on it? No I don't use poly market. Okay. Okay. I'm not sure you're allowed to be do it as a US citizen yet. Ki you can you can bet on but I don't we actually find prediction markets like a crystal ball but I don't personally use it.
Is that your pin? Is that the the uh Granny Shots US large ETF funs ETF? Yes. It's not GRNY. It's not said Ice Ice Out. No, that's okay. No, that was the Grammys. No. Okay. Yeah, that's that's that's um Tom Lee. Thank you. I'd laugh if it was funny. I'm smiling.
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