China's Slowdown Is A Bigger Concern As U.S. Economy Holds Up: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research

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미국 경기 침체는 없을 것이며 S&P500은 2024년 말 5400, 2025년 6000까지 오를 수 있다는 낙관적 전망. 미국 경기와 증시 전망: 2023년 10월 이후 투자자들이 미국 경기침체가 없다는 것을 인식하기 시작했고, 2024년에도 침체는 없다고 봄. 기업이익은 작년의 미미한 이익 감소에서 회복될 것으로 예상. S&P500 목표: 2024년 말 5400(현 수준 대비 약 13~14% 상승), 2025년 6000까지 상승 가능. 경제는 '롤링 리세션'을 거쳤으나 주택·소매 등에서 회복이 나타나며 소비와 고용이 견조함. 유가 전망: 미국이 경기침체 없이 버티는 가운데 중국은 부동산 침체로 디플레이션을 수출하고 있어 유가가 100달러까지 크게 오를 우려는 적다고 봄. 다만 90~95달러 범위의 상승 가능성은 열려 있음. 금리 전망: 시장은 내년 연준 금리인하 4회(각 25bp)를 기대하지만, 본인은 2회 정도를 예상. 경제가 견조해 연준이 공격적으로 인하할 이유가 없으며, 금리는 대침체·코로나 이전의 정상 수준으로 되돌아가는 중이라고 설명. 리스크: 금리인하 기대와 실제 경기 간 괴리가 금융시장에 부담이 될 수 있음.

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01. Enterprises lxmi organic Cupid and OMC on the back of positive news flow zidus life is the only stock on the radar today that could perhaps open in the red and we'll tell you why in just a bit okay well we'll get to the stocks with our team in a bit from now Ed yini president at J research is now joining us to take some questions Ed good to have you with us here good morning seasons greetings from all of us here uh and it's good to see you as always uh Ed the snps now as we wrap up 202 three back at Jan 2022 levels I mean basically at a fresh High uh correct what's uh what's what that's the global Benchmark in that sense I mean the largest Equity index what's your sense I mean if S&P would to break out into a new high are we looking at much higher levels into 24 uh because there's a technical aspect as as well and there is yeah go on yeah I'm I'm optimistic uh I think since October of last year and again October of this year investors have come to realize that the US isn't going to go into a recession and I don't think we're going to go into recession in 2024 I think earnings are going to continue to uh rebound from a very minor earnings recession we had last year and I think that as a result of that I could see the S&P 500 going up to 5400 by the end of this coming year 2024 and I think it can go to 6,000 by 2025 um the economy has been very resilient it's had What I Call Rolling recessions as that have been self-correcting now we're seeing some rolling recoveries in places like housing and retailing but overall the consumer continues to spend the job market remains very uh tight there's plenty of job opportunities out there so I think the economy continues to grow and the Market's going to go to new highs uh and Mary so no recession for the US economy in 2024 and the S&P 500 can rally to levels of 5,400 that's a good 13 14% upside from current levels what about crude any signs that crude may have bottomed out the latest Red Sea disruptions have resulted in a rise in crude prices uh with US economy showing far more resilience is there a possibility that crude prices could inch up from current levels what's the outlook for 2024 well I think one of the reasons that we've avoided a recession in the US is that uh we didn't need a recession to bring inflation down not in this country China's had a very significant recession particularly in its property market and China remains very depressed everybody's been waiting looking for a recession in the US I think there is a recession right now in China that continues into 2024 and China's been exporting deflation to the rest of the world which is why inflation is coming down so rapidly so on the one hand we have the US econom economic Outlook looking quite good on the other hand China I think remains depressed so I don't worry too much about crude oil going up to 100 but could it go up to 9590 it it it uh you know 9095 I should say it it could go in that range uh Mr yini season's greetings to you good morning so you know the scenario that you you presented for the US economy where we're not expecting a recession maybe just mild earnings cuts and a recovery now uh does that factor in a lot of rate cuts from the fed or uh will that be the scenario in any case and therefore maybe the FED doesn't cut too much and then could that present any complexity for financial markets because financial markets are rallying expecting these three rate Cuts next year well I think there still is sort of a lingering uh expectations that the economy will finally weaken that there are long and variable lags between the tight monetary policy we've had since March of uh of last year and that they that these lags are going to hit the economy in 2024 and so there is sort of a consensus view out there in the markets that we'll get at least four rate cuts by the FED at 25 basis Points each next year I I say two rate Cuts I don't think that there's any particular reason why the FED has to be too aggressive in lowering interest rates I think the economy is resilient I think the FED has tightened but I think the FED has also normalized interest r are back to normal they're back kind of back to where they were before the great financial crisis through the great virus crisis which was really the abnormal period got it uh Ed uh we leave it there thank you very much for joining us it's a pleasure having you with us here on CNBC TV8 and uh wishing you all the best uh for as we sort of look into 20124 as well you know we'll take a very quick commercial break here we'll come back our list of stocks to watch short for we lined up with our research team uh so uh that's coming up in just a bit from now