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it's a huge day for the markets and we have withas should I say hugest or the biggest of Market veterans ramdev Agarwal of mial oswal his team has just completed their 28th wealth creation study and over the past many years I have noticed each study gives you a gem of a lesson to find where Health creating companies this time ramdev says don't just look at accounting profit look at economic profit look for where sector Trends and the company's own endowments gives you a hocky stic return now I'm really excited about the hocky stick return more from the man himself RVE thank you very much for dropping in into our studio good morning well first up I you know look at the ambience where we are meeting you know the markets uh 2 months back 5% risk-free return in the US US yield today it is below 4% is it gone below yes 3.97 when I last check so should we actually prepare for higher multiples now I see markets are not mathematics I mean yes uh kind of a significant reduction in the interest rates would warrant uh you know reating in terms of higher P multiples for the stocks which is a l iCal thing but if it is you know cyclical upturn downturn from say 1 half% to 4% 4% again so this a cycle I think stock markets they are already priced in this kind of movements unless this 4% goes to 10% 12% obviously uh the multiples will fall but I don't think this requires any kind of a major adjustment in the P multiple so we are at about 2022 in India so if by chance they the interest rate comes down to 3 and a half% or 3% that doesn't mean that we deserve to get 30 or something like that oh no not that much well I thought one standard deviation higher even that will help because you know if you're going to grow at 15% earnings it's a Tailwind for business valuations and how much I don't know but it definitely is tnd okay it has come from the fomc you know the the Dot Plot they vote on GDP and inflation they've all brought down their inflation forecast and hence the rate cut number of rate cut has increased but they have not brought down their GDP forecast in fact for the current year GDP forecast has been adjusted higher because the last number from us was 5.2 so therefore fed is endorsing Goldilocks you think of course they are Ian they themselves surprised the strength in the economy despite uh inflation and whatever difficulties they had so clearly it's a terrific time for US economy but India has despite all the difficulties world over we have brilliant time goldilock is on in India even earlier than us so I think by ourselves we are in a last quarter 7.6% when the world is at 1 or 2% so the gap between the global growth and Indian growth is distinctly higher this time and uh uh now the knowledge people RBI and all they projecting even next year to be exciting and even after that also so if by chance Indian economy actually grows at about closer to 7% in 2425 I don't think that's there in the market no that's not priced yeah that's not priced yeah we are still talking about 6 and a half I want to come to your hockey stick returns as you say in your study think stocks not markets but today you know we have to talk markets for a little bit more does this look like 2004 to 2007 to you now yeah I mean I have seen four bull runs see welcome to the Bull Run okay we are properly in the bull run and uh so we had the the biggest of the Bull Run was 1992 has bull run when the market went 7x in 19 months from 6 700 to 4200 so that time it was a liquidity Le bull run it was there was no support in terms of corporate earnings and all but it was just a liquidity lead and liquidity suddenly went out this time we have the we have the fundamental reason where GDP is growing well corporate profit is growing at about anywhere between 15 to 20% right now my analysts are saying for next 2% this year and 14% yeah so they're saying about 18 19% compounded 2 years return sorry growth so we have a very good support of the corporate earnings growth and and uh we have amazing amount of retail liquidity just pouring in and in a predictable way my sense it's a 5 to 10 year kind of run and uh it's a I mean Grand Finale is ahead in the stock market so we're in bull market and bull market always ends badly so be uh ready for some kind of a you know I mean though we have a fantastic regulator we have uh I mean all kinds of digital surveillance they can always control it I hope they control it on in time but uh the the the size of the liquidity which is entering because of this almost 3 million accounts coming every month now we we have crossed 130 we at about I think 133 or 135 million accounts every month it's climbing my sense is be headache for 250 300 million accounts in next 3 4 years so till this journey continues I think we'll have enough local liquidity now foreigners they have to decide they lost 3% share and they sold at 16 17,000 18,000 they sold 2 3 lakh CR worth and now when they want to buy back that same quantity you know coming at 21,000 yeah so they have to pay that price we I think we already discussed that uh so I think uh but then I think real fund will be that money will be taken away by the companies you see how many IPOs are there how many block deals are happening how many private exits are there so now money will at at some level uh promoters will find it uh attractive for the unlisted companies to get listed listed companies to go for aggressive expansion and create infrastructure and give a good kickart to the private cap cycle so my sense is that we are in a fantastic government is having fantastic time in getting the tax and hence they are blowing it in the infrastructure and if the private cap starts they'll get more taxes and so I think you know we are in a virtuous cycle yeah so that kind of thing looks right and valuation is also at about see another thing which can go wrong in the market is that you're is are you crazily priced so yes at 4 trillion to 3 trillion of GDP we are fully prized but still okay okay no I take your point but but U uh who are the beneficiaries I mean now to come to your study itself before I come to the hockey stick you say that PSU banks are one party that look uh you know ripe for uh gains I it's not only PS yeah PSU Banks uh for sure because they have been bat on so badly and uh they have size they have brand Equity their distribution they have the deposit franchise so everything goes for them just that their past is very bad so obviously Market will remain skeptic about what will happen in the future but uh since uh the management style has changed in the sense that interference from Delhi has almost gone or gone totally and uh they are being managed in professional way credit cycle is very good credit cost cycle is kind of very favorable banks are actually they have a net posi I mean their recover is more than slipage soost will go negative so this is a cycle I generally these are the typically end of it see one year you have more recovery than slipage almost you're coming end end of the cycle so I don't have good understanding of where the economy is you know I mean is it getting over last time the good cycle lasted for 10 years you remember they started cleaning up in 2002 2003 and then till 2013 the banking cycle was yeah but 20078 I think it just picked out at least in stock market that it ped so it it was about five five years six year kind of thing we started in 2021 we already done 2 years I hope we have 3 four years in our hand for the grand finale Fair Point now let me come to the large caps uh you know it's common knowledge now that the small caps and the midc Caps have done very well it's the large cap index which is lagging the uh do you think that uh therefore it is safe to go with the large caps and in particular uh I think we are running along when you speak the fastest uh in The Last 5 Years the largest wealth creator now you point out in one of that HDFC bank for the first time is not there in the fastest mostest biggest yeah so do you think its time has come should we therefore look for those kind or because it's not there don't go there see this is a proper bull market everything is going perfect you have to be a good investor the being good investor doesn't mean midcap is small cap large cap it is about finding the right idea right investment idea at reasonable price price see if you're finding a big bank to be very reasonably priced uh at less than one peg or something like that HDFC I quot whatever you like that's also a good idea but if you're finding a smaller Bank in the same parameter even more attractive you must buy that smaller one also or there are some businesses which are fundamentally mid and small like small is also not anymore small small is now I think about 18 20,000 cres this biggest small is about 182,000 and mid is the smallest mid is 182,000 so we are not talking about some yeah so so you have now enough size so let's not discuss this C classification for investing investing must be at the I mean uh it's it's unfortunate that because it should be cap agnostic this this cap has become very important because the mid and small index has done 30 40% whereas the large G is done 12 13% It is purely because of the movement of the FI interest in India they typically buy and sell large cap LGE and since they were absent in fact they were selling the uh large C depressed and uh all the money went into M and small and they kind of uh so my sense is that uh one should look for a good idea there because large gap has say 100 100 companies mid Gap has 150 but small Gap has thousands yes so you'll always get some spot where you'll find ideas so I think you should chase a good idea and this study is actually a framework to find those ideas okay ramde hold on I've asked you quite a few questions on today's fed positioning but I have to ask you about your hockey stick idea of picking stocks all those questions on how to pick hocky stick moves in stocks on the other side
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