How Will Market Read Into Volatility From US Tariffs? | Wall St Sinks, What About India? |Ed Yardeni

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트럼프 관세 정책 발표·철회가 반복되며 변동성이 워싱턴 발 정책 불확실성에서 나온다. 펀더멘털(실적 전망)은 여전히 양호하고, 1월 한파로 눌린 고용지표가 2~3월 반등할 수 있다. 연준은 데이터 기준으로 독립적이라 금리 인하를 서두르지 않을 것. 독일 재정확대로 유럽 채권금리가 상승했고, 미 10년물 금리도 4.25% 부근으로 되돌아가 추가 상승 가능성이 있다. 중국 부양책으로 성장 둔화보다 개선 가능성도 언급.

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01. time to connect with the global guest help understand what the implication of this tariff agenda the back and forth that we've seen on the Tariff front is going to be let's welcome on board yet Ed yard the president and chief investment strategist at yard research and good morning and once again great to be speaking with you this morning help us make sense of how the markets are going to read into this volatility that is the Tariff action coming in from uh Donald Trump because on one hand you have him aggressively imposing tariffs then he's withdrawing all of these tariff that he's imposed most of it rather on Mexico as well as Canada the global impact we've seen has been really bad for Wall Street how do you believe it's going to panel for other Global markets today well I think we're all buying neck braces you know uh it's it's kind of been head spinning uh everybody's head is spinning uh the volatility is clearly coming from Washington clearly coming from the white house uh the president uh seems to change his mind quite a bit and that's adding to the volatility I I think at some Point here the markets may actually start to tune out uh the statements coming out of the White House and just focus on the on the fundamentals uh right now that's that's hard to do uh but I do think that the underlying outlook for earnings is still good uh we'll see to you know we'll see tomorrow we're going to get the employment report here in the United States Friday morning and I'm thinking that it could surprise us to the upside because the January numbers were depressed by uh the coldest January since 1988 so I'm thinking that uh we may get some relief from the economic indicators showing that the economy is actually still quite resilient uh maybe maybe it's more a wishful thinking than than likely to happen but um again I think there there is some good fundamental reasons to believe that uh the weather related weakness in January will be reversed in February and March what I don't know is what statement will come out of the White House next I'm just focused on what the US Commerce Secretary is saying I mean he's talking about the market volatility and he's saying that's not really the driving force behind their decisions sort of backing Trump's truff uh uh you know tariff imposition he's saying that the uh you know Administration is focused on rebuilding America other than that he's saying that you are going to see growth and interest rates drop either 1% or more do you think that's where the central bank is headed no I don't think the Federal Reserve is H at this point even thinking about lowering interest rates uh they may change their mind depending on on what the Friday's employment report does but uh I'm thinking that U the economy has been remarkably resilient over the past three years in the face of the tightening of monetary policy by the FED I think the FED is going to maintain its independence I think it will be driven by the data and if I'm right and the economy proves its resilience then I don't think the fed's going to be in any rush to lower interest rates and besides the administration the treasury secretary said that they're really focusing more on the bond market and they really don't have much control over the bond market as a matter of fact U we've seen this although the bond Mark Bond y has come down a lot over the past day or two it's actually gone right back up to about a little over 4 and a quar perc and I think it's probably going to go back up some more uh we we're still going to have a a lot of potential turmoil in Washington DC over the budget over the next few weeks so U Washington is going to create volatility but the economy I think is going to remain remarkably study uh but also help us understand that what is the outlook on the bond market because just yesterday what we have seen is that the Germans did come out with their uh big spending plan and that made the bond markets over there shooting up we have seen the Japanese bond market hitting its 16 high do you believe that once again we should be in for a regime where globally of course there will be some uptake within the bond market yeah it's interesting uh we have what looks like a trade War one day and the next day it's postponed uh for a month but uh if if there's anything positive coming out of uh the Washington policy terminal right now I think the message is quite clear to to Germany and other Europeans that uh they really have to start doing more for themselves on defense and they have to do more to stimulate their economy and and that means deficit financing in in Germany more deficit financing and that's pushing bond yields up over there and at the same time we've seen the Chinese move to uh provide more stimulus to their consumers so uh ironically we may actually see better economic growth rather than weaker economic growth U though again there's a lot of uncertainty about where this trade war is going if if anywhere uh and I do think that is putting upward pressure on the on the bond market it sure is uh Ed so good chatting with you today thank you so much for your time my pleasure e