저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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트럼프 정책의 예측 불가능성으로 미국 주식을 전량 매도하고 달러는 보유 중. 미국 증시는 2025년 중 정점 후 조정 전망이며 미국 주식이 전 세계 시총의 약 70%를 차지하는 것은 버블 신호로 봄. 은은 산업수요와 저평가 이유로 추가 매수 중, 금은 보유하나 추가 매수 안 함. 농산물 유망, 원유·천연가스는 장기 보유·하락 시 추가 매수. 인도는 외국인 자금 유출로 저평가되어 긍정적이나 구체적 종목은 언급 안 함. 미국채 10년물 금리는 장기적으로 상승 전망. 비트코인은 버블로 보고 부정적. AI는 흥미롭지만 투자 안 함.
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hello to Jim Rogers is he ready hello sir good morning how are you how are you so nice to see you let it out for you let me also wave it out for you I can see you I can hear you finally okay I can see you and hear you and it's nice to be here wonderful every time we talk about gold and silver the first image that comes to my mind is your silver chalice with a lot of water in it shall we start with silver shall we start with gold and we just finished a sugar discussion we can start with sugar also I I certainly I own gold I own silver and I own some sugar uh I I'll get into I'll get into specifics but I would first let's say encourage you to speak your thoughts on what is happening in the world we are moving from an era of globalization to Del globalization how do you see the world changing in the light of what the US president Donald Trump is trying to do well if you know what Mr Trump is trying to do you're way ahead of everybody else Mr Trump does not know what he's trying to do he changes every day uh Mr Trump says he's trying to make America strong and powerful and I guess he is but he changes every day Mr Trump is trying to make America powerful but that could come at a cost of high inflation more debt for the US uh balance sheet and certainly bad news for emerging markets so whom do you think in this attempt to De globalize will win and where do you think the casualty will happen well Mr Trump is going to do whatever he thinks is good for America that day I'm sorry my problem with Mr Trump is he changes his mind whenever he sees something on television so you know with some people like Margaret Thatcher or nou or some people in the past we knew what they thought but Mr Trump he changes his mind all the time he says he wants to make America great again that's wonderful but then he changes his mind how if you know how he's going to do then you know what he will do next month but nobody else does would you an in investor how do you cope with this kind of uncertainty uh do you continue to remain bullish on the US dollar or do you move money out and maybe start nibbling into some other companies uh countries like buffer is doing investing into five Japanese uh companies very very good question I have sold all of my US Stocks I have most sold most of my stocks in the world because I don't know what he's going to do the American Market is making all-time highs I own us dollarss but I don't own many other currencies now logically the US balance sheet is getting weaker it is unlikely to improve and the near term it could come at the cost of inflation so do you think there is Merit in parking money or capital in US dollar I mean is this a safe heaven trade or that is a more like a since nothing else is available everybody's hiding in it I own US dollars because when problems come people will go to the US dollar they think it is a safe haven it is not but they will go to the US dollar I hope that the US dollar will then go up a lot and I will be smart enough to sell I hope you have a level in mind when you hope to sell no uh it depends on how how things evolved Trump is going to do everything he can to get the dollar higher and to make the American economy better if it works and I think it will at least the dollar part then I hope I'm smart enough to sell maybe I should watch ET now to find out when to sell let's talk about um the golden silver uh your favorites definitely but the last time we connected with you uh you were actually focusing on Silver and uh you were liking that commodity do you still own it or have you recently added to more of uh silver in your portfolio give us a sense there and also in within the agre basket uh what's the positioning like and um which Agri Commodities do you like specifically right now I still own silver in fact I'll probably buy more silver this afternoon after I finish speaking with you uh I will not add to my gold silver is down gold is up so I will buy more silver I do like Commodities agriculture is better because agriculture is still a little bit depressed uh Jim silver does well when there is growth in the world because 50% of the total demand for silver is Industrial in nature gold as well when there's uncertainty in the world because it is considered to be is a safe heaven so what makes you more bullish on Silver relative to Gold just it is depressed I mean silver is down almost 50% from its all-time high gold is making alltime highs both are precious metals and have been for centuries gold is expensive silver is cheap I think I hope uh Jim for the longest time you've been a big believer in Indian tourism and India as a country in terms of potential however as an investor you've been a big VY of China and Chinese stocks are we at that turn when Chinese stocks have started to revive because globally also the narrative now seems to be moving towards China and there seems to be a lot of you know movement on that front well I will tell you that for the first time in my life I am optimistic about Delhi the people in Delhi seem to understand that Prosperity is good that capitalism is good that has never Deli has always said that but they've never really believed it for the first time in my life I think that Delhi understands the world Deli understands economics and Delhi wants to make India successful so I am optimistic about India I'm optimistic about the Indian markets I'm even optimistic about Delhi for the first time in my life what anything in India though because we are seeing a you know huge amount of FBI and fi outflow from the country and it's lasted for over a year now Jim well that's fine that makes I hope that makes things cheaper uh if you want to be a successful investor you have to go against the crowd now maybe I'm wrong I've made many mistakes in my life but in my view it is time to put money into India the next time is depressed so what would you buy in India uh considering you know it all has fallen and valuations are uh pretty rip uh you know rather pretty cheap I should say uh across the board you know across market caps across sectors and stocks well it will depending on what goes down the most if you tell me what's going to go down the most that's where I will look I want to buy cheap uh certainly agriculture in India is cheap but tell me what's going to go down the most and that's where I will look Jim uh you know there's a time you were a crude bull but a lot has changed in terms of oil demand and oil consumption gas is gas demand is going higher altern sources of fuel are getting created technology is ensured that oil can be drilled and more oil can be drilled at a cheaper uh rate now where do you think the long-term trend for oil is and when I say long-term 5 years 10 years higher uh the world is running out of known reserves of of oil of natural gas of hydrocarbons and the demand is certainly not disappear ing in fact when prices go down it makes demand go up so I am not selling my hydrocarbons I will probably buy more if they go down there's a time when Jim Rogers would hop onto his bike go around the world and then meet interesting people find new ideas so if Jim Rogers has to hop onto a bike and it's never too late again Jim hop on to a bike and then go on a long holiday but before he goes on a holiday he has three trades which are those three trades Jim Roger would do before he hops onto his next World adventure well I will certainly take my daughters to India everybody needs to see what's happening in India because it is a dramatic change in my view and I would like to introduce my daughters to the Indian in stock market because in my view in their lifetime India is going to be even more important than it has been in the past and I will try to teach them about silver Jim that's that's on the that's really on a personal front I'm curious to know that Jim Rogers the investor before he goes on his next World Tour where he has option only to let's say invest in one or two asset classes and then go on a long holiday where he'll not be bothered about what happens to daily prices you'll only check them let's say you know once or twice in a year what would you like where would you like to invest before you go on that you know Adventure World Tour agriculture I will buy agriculture because in the next few years agriculture is going to be one of the best places in the world to invest Jim other than that um in technology there's a lot of chatter with respect to Ai and the chips Etc give us your sense that how do you read in into these emerging Technologies and how is that likely to impact um uh the way forward and um what's your sense there everything I read about AI is extremely exciting the world has seen exciting technology changes in the past AI seems to be one of them I do not have investments in AI because I do not I am not technical enough to understand him but if and when I learn more about AI I hope I'm smart enough to invest in AI Jim Rogers is Bitcoin a bubble which will hit us which will haunt us or Bitcoin is a reality and it is a true blue alternative for everybody it's going to hurt a lot of people I hope I'm not one of them I hope you're not one of them I don't see any reality to the move movement in my view it's a bubble and it will blow up someday and I hope I don't get hurt are the other bubbles get hurt which are the other bubbles in the world you know I mean you know it more than anyone else that financial markets there would always be bubbles there would always be despair there would always be trouble which are the other bubbles in the world according to you well that's the main one I see right now I don't see any other the markets that are exploding and going through the roof irrationally that's the only bubble I see right now maybe I should watch ET well of course they should watch ET because Jim Roger comes on ET and that's what I always say that you know keep on watching ET because Jim Roger always comes on ET so what to your mind Jim is the long-term trend for the US 10-year paper or interest rates because up until now we've only seen the interest rates coming down it's really for the first time interest rates have gone from 2% to 3 3 to four and now they could go to Five where are US Treasury or 10e paper headed in in the long interest rates are going to go higher in the US probably much higher because the US keeps printing money and borrowing I mean the debt is unbelievable in the US now I do not why understand why anybody would lend money to the US government because the debt keeps going higher and higher and higher and it's going to get worse interest rates in the US are going to get worse because the debt is on well there's a bubble there's a bubble for you the US government debt is a bubble uh Jim so how long before the imbalances they get corrected and I'm just breaking it for our viewers here if I look at the world economy right now nearly 60 nearly 70% of the total stock market market cap is in US Stocks while us does not represent even 30% of the world economy so for our viewers I want to bring this point out that nearly 60 to 70 nearly 70% of the market cap of the stock market is in US equities how long do you think this will sustain I will imagine that in 2025 it will come to an end it's already been the longest in American history without a big problem 2025 it will come to an end 25 the party in US market will come to end now that's a very powerful statement Jim I mean we want archive it and we'll play it again and again well the US market has been extremely powerful since 2008 2009 it's been the longest in American history it's already very very powerful markets that are that powerful usually come to an end and I imagine the American Stock Market will come to an end this year I have sold all of my American shares and you are putting that in US dollar and the reason why you are putting them in US dollar because you think that's the ultimate Safe Haven right that's what we can conclude the world thinks the US dollar the world thinks the US dollar is a safe haven so therefore I put my money into US dollars it's not a safe haven but people think it is America is the largest deor nation in world history but people don't think that way they think that the US dollar is a safe haven so I have put my money into US dollars really appreciate your time thank you for joining us and
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