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찰리 멍거의 투자 접근법을 네 가지 기둥으로 정리한 해설 영상이다. [핵심 결론] 멍거의 투자법은 좋은 기회는 드물다는 현실 인식 아래, 마음을 준비해 두고 기회가 오면 과감하게 집중 투자한 뒤 매매 없이 오래 보유해 복리 효과를 누리는 것이다. [기회의 희소성] 인생과 투자에서 진짜 좋은 기회는 드물다. 버크셔 해서웨이 역사와 멍거 가문 재산의 대부분이 버크셔 지분, 코스트코 지분, 리리 펀드 투자 등 소수에서 나왔다는 점을 근거로 든다. 그래서 '적지만 좋은 것(less but better)' 접근을 강조한다. [준비와 과감함] 기다리는 동안 독서와 여러 학문의 큰 아이디어를 배우고 기업의 좋고 나쁨을 공부해 마음을 준비한다. 기회가 오면 분산하지 않고 크게 집중한다. 예시로 멍거가 2021년 이후 데일리저널 포트폴리오의 약 28%를 알리바바(BABA)에 실었고, 이 회사는 2013년 이후 신규 종목을 사지 않다가 알리바바에만 집중했다고 소개한다. [매도 자제와 복리] 이익 실현을 서두르면 복리를 방해하고 양도소득세 부담도 생긴다. 좋은 기업이라면 오래 들고 있는 것이 수학적으로 유리하다. 'CMQ'는 'Compound Money Quietly(조용히 돈을 복리로 불린다)'의 약자라고 설명한다. [실행이 어려운 이유] 변동성을 견디는 기질이 필요하고, 월가 기관은 비활동적 전략으로 수익을 내기 어려워 이를 권하지 않는다는 주장을 편다. [좋은 기업의 기준] 멍거는 ①끈끈한 대규모 고객 기반 ②고객·공급사·직원과 상생하는 승승 구조 ③소비자 마음속 긍정적 브랜드 ④정직하고 유능하며 경험 많은 경영진 ⑤능력주의 문화 ⑥지속 가능한 경쟁우위를 선호한다. 쉬운 결정, 자신이 아는 영역에 투자하고 유행 종목은 피한다. [진행자 의견] 진행자는 멍거 방식이 가장 좋다고 보지만 편향이 있을 수 있다며, 전략을 맹목적으로 따르지 말고 자신이 확실히 아는 기업에만 투자하라고 권한다. [종목 언급] 알리바바(BABA)는 멍거의 대표 투자 사례로 언급되었으며 방향성에 대한 명시적 전망은 없다. 코스트코, 애플, 구글(버크셔의 놓친 기회 사례)은 사례로만 나온다.
다듬은 글
cmq investors welcome to the show i was asked if i could describe in a simple way charlie munger's approach to investing what is charlie munger's investment approach what's his investment strategy i think i'm uniquely qualified to answer this question because of my uh my relationship through charlie munger quotes and just i think being the most knowledgeable person about charlie munger who's under the age of 35.
so with that amazing distinction let's get into it first things first charlie munger is someone who looks at things or tries to look at things as they really are he wants to see reality as it is so the first i guess let's call it a pillar of his approach here requires this kind of foundational understanding and i call this if i had to name this like a section it'd be opportunities so opportunities charlie munger believes like the really great opportunities in life are rare and it makes sense right i don't think there's you know it's not like you wake up every day and someone says hey i gotta you want to make 100 million dollars it's just that's not how the world works so charlie munger takes that same you know realistic approach and looks at the investment world and says you know there's probably not that many investments in a lifetime that are truly great and the history of berkshire hathaway shows this and charlie munger's experience as an investor also illustrates this you know he said on many occasions it really was three things that have made up the majority of his family's worth that being his berkshire hathaway steak his uh stake in costco and the work he's done or the money he's put into lilu's fund so with that idea in mind it's a less but better approach so it's rooted in this idea though that the world is not one where you're just bathed in amazing opportunities so the opportunities in life the really great ones are rare and the same is true in the investment world now with that being said what do you do while you're waiting for these opportunities to come along you just you know twiddle your thumbs do you i don't know get a drug habit i don't know the answer but i actually do prepare your mind opportunity comes to the prepared mind that's another charlie munger quote so charlie munger is a big believer in reading broadly reading intensely reading constantly and expanding your mind and another way you can approach doing this is is by learning all the big ideas from all the big disciplines that is the process of preparing your mind it also means studying businesses and learning what makes a good business good what makes a bad business bad and why and it's that preparation you know compounded over time which allows you to spot opportunities or to identify those truly great investment opportunities so we have opportunities now that was preparation next up is we call it decisiveness and actually let's call it aggressiveness so charlie munger is known to wait and wait and wait and wait and wait he has the as he calls it the deferred gratification gene but when something truly great comes along meaning a great business that he believes is you know fairly or reasonably priced where he thinks he knows something that other people don't he doesn't just you know take a little bit he goes all in he goes not all in literally all in but he goes very aggressive and a prime example of this and i'll pull this up now is what he recently did with his alibaba purchase for the daily journal i'm going to put the daily journals 13f through whalewisdom.com which i'm a big fan of that site if you don't know it you can see all the 13f violins the daily journal has not purchased a single new uh stock position since 2013 right so almost 10 years and last year charlie munger began loading up on alibaba and that is now 28 of the daily journal portfolio is alibaba he waits and waits and waits and waits and a lot of people can't do that but when he sees something that fits you know it's in a circle of confidence he know he really knows something he has a unique insight you know because he's prepared his mind he loads up he doesn't just do hey i'm gonna do like two percent of my portfolios this and one percent this and four percent this it's very very concentrated it's aggressive and that aggressiveness creates a concentrated portfolio so the daily journal portfolio began to illustrate this example currently has five holdings it's very different than how most people would go about investing or what you're told by experts so we had looking at the world the way it is and seeing that opportunities are rare instead of just waiting for them to come they don't just come to you you have to be able to identify them so you need to prepare your mind you need to read broadly you need to know the big ideas that really work see the world through a multi-disciplinary lens when you do spot an opportunity you're very aggressive you're you're decisive and aggressive and i'll have some quotes here i want to share with you i i did make notes for this i don't need notes for this but i want to enhance this with some of charlie's actual words and then i have one more point about his investment approach i also want to say this let me get to that point actually first the fourth part is you get out of the way what do you mean get out of the way our tendency as investors when we try to like you know take profits or buy a little of this dip out of that sell this buy that we interrupt the compounding process so one of the kind of like simple epiphanies and a lot of his approach is just like these simple epiphanies you guys know if you are often said oh you should take some profits take some profits on the way up but if you can find a great business that you can buy a lot of that has a unique competitive advantage doesn't have to worry about the eroding forces of competitors you can let it keep going and instead of taking profits by not taking profits you delay the capital gains tax and if you can go without realizing the gain so if that unrealized game can just stay put to compound more forcefully and that explains that quote that i often reference from charlie which is there are huge mathematical advantages to doing nothing it's pretty powerful when you think about that it shows you just kind of how asinine the idea that you should be buying in and out of positions is because the real game is to try to find something that's worth holding on to for a long time not not only is it a better lifestyle you know you're not as stressed there's mathematical advantages to it the long-term compounding effects when you don't realize your gain it allows you to compound more forcefully and that's the name of the game you know cmq stands for compound money quietly it's very much to represent this idea of like that's how real wealth is created you know that's a big idea that really works now why don't more people if this is the way to invest why don't more people do it for starters it's very hard it requires a certain type of stomach a psychological temperament you know when you're willing to invest this way especially just having such a concentrated portfolio you're going to deal with more short-term volatility and most investors can't deal with volatility that well they tend to sell or they panic and it's very human of us as charlie would say it's the standard human condition the standard human condition is stupidity that's actually what he says but so that's part of it the second is the main street not main street excuse me the called the wall street type institutions there's not really a business model where they profit from this approach because it's actually an inactive strategy so it doesn't mean it's mentally it's very active but the actual what you're doing is as charlie would say and i'm quoting him sitting on your ass um and he says this in the past there's a bunch of quotes i could reference here but he says you know when you do that you're paying less to brokers you're listening to less nonsense and if it works the tax system gives you an extra one two or three percentage points per annum and that's what he's referring to because if you take your profits you have to realize those gains you pay the cap long-term capital gains tax and uh additionally then you have to find something that'll work better than what you already have and the probabilities of you know going from one winner to another it's look the odds get worse so there's more to it but those are the four big pillars that i've kind of identified here but i want to share a few other thoughts on how charlie invests and then if you guys have questions i'm on ig live if you're watching on youtube later when i upload this other things about charlie munger's approach to investing uh kind of a fundamental idea is just the importance of a a great business you know that's something you've probably heard how he influenced warren buffett and how you know his approach was to get away from these cigar butt companies and actually find really really quality businesses not only was that there's a few reasons for this but charlie was a lawyer for 13 years prior to becoming a let's call it a full-time investor and as a lawyer he got a chance to see a lot of different types of businesses he was also investing at the time but something that he learned along the way is it's it's much more pleasurable to find a great business there's less problems you have to deal with it's just a better experience and warren buffett can attest and it's not like they never made this mistake even after charlie came into the picture but you know when you're trying to find a company that's not doing well that has a lousy past but a bright future they'll pass on that all the time because it's so much harder charlie looks for easy things his approach is not one that's easy per se but what he's ultimately trying to do is find things that he would consider to be like a cinch and when he finds it he loads up he bets heavily that has been his approach consistently since he's been a at least since he had his fund i can't speak to like what he invested in when he was you know still a lawyer but and it's rooted in these big ideas that really work it's rooted in fundamental models about how the world works and it's more it also fits his personality type you know something i've learned from studying the great investors is they learn from everyone but they ultimately you have to find an approach that's adapted to your personality and charlie has said that he he's not saying everyone should use his approach um although he will say that his approach is the best one um because that's charlie bunger and you know he's he's uh he's a bold a bold person um i think it's the best approach from all the things i've studied but consider your source i'm a little bit biased you know long-term investing that was hard but this is the best way to do it you have to really know what you're doing though because if you're loading up on companies that you don't necessarily you know if you're overconfident about your ability to assess how well those businesses will do you know that could be a really bad situation for you and you wouldn't want to just follow his strategy blindly um okay a few other things just a couple of notes i have here you know what else does charlie seek in a business you know what makes a great business great he's looking for uh and this is not uni like across the board this is just these were my notes that i oftentimes i will go back and try to you know what we call retrieve the knowledge or retrieve the information because that's a better way to retain things that's how you set your long memory long-term memory isn't um is enhanced when you have to retrieve information so i asked myself what does charlie munger seek in a business and this is what i wrote out without looking at any notes or googling he wants something that has a large sticky customer base i remember from kind of an obscure it might not have been an actual interview but someone asked him about the apple investment and he said very frankly you know it's and not a direct quote but it's got a large sticky customer base you know that's hugely valuable um in terms of think of uh think of things like we're going through right now with inflation if you have an extremely loyal customers you know they can pay a little bit more they will pay a little bit more it's also just the advantages of scale uh when you have a large customer base that gives you a cert in their loyal that gives you a certain i call it padding um you know to get through different times or you know adjust and uh you know on and on we go he's looking for win-win situations so costco is an example of a company that does you know really makes their whole lifeblood is based on doing right by their customers um but also doing right by their suppliers doing right by their employees you know when you have these win-win dynamics at play it's it works for a long time it's very rare you can find an instance where a company that doesn't take that approach does poorly um he's looking for a brand that has uh positive associations in the minds of the consumers um you know that's something that charlie and warren really learned through the seas candy deal when they you know started seeing the intangible value or they're willing to pay for that um despite it not being as quantitative as maybe like the benjamin graham type of approach would uh you know would look at it next up um making sure you have great management management that has a lot of integrity a lot of intelligence a lot of experience and that's very dedicated that's critical there's not really any scenario you can think of where lackluster management is going to you know help turn a company or help a company reach its full potential and as a shareholder help you see its full potential um i mentioned it easy he's looking for easy decisions he doesn't go where he does in places he doesn't know um he doesn't invest in areas that are trendy he goes where he really thinks he has an advantage or uh and he said before like why would i want to play a game where everyone's wise and i'm stupid i want to play a game where everyone else is stupid and unwise you know what would make what could be more rational than that but that requires you know a i guess an objectivity to be able to see your weaknesses and strengths in a in a way that it's oftentimes hard for us to do he likes companies where they have a culture of meritocracy you know the most qualified people who are tasked with the responsibilities the best idea wins etc and probably the most important is a durable competitive advantage because when you think about what creates value for us as shareholders the opposite of that would be competition because competition drives down margins so if there's a business that can easily be imitated or you know can be yeah someone can make another version of it that's very unattractive and that doesn't allow you there's there's no scenario where you can hold a company like that for the long term um unless you want to have you know pretty mediocre results it's pretty big i mean that's a lot of stuff but i it might seem simple and it sounds simple but it really it's supposed to be simple and that's the thing i think the greatest investors can explain their investment strategies in like a sentence or two um it doesn't require all the you know as warren buffett would say the greek letters and and the kind of just facade of complexity that is oftentimes seen as better when in reality you know if we look at just again big models that really work the more complex something is the more likely it is there's going to be errors so simple is reliable and this his system is very simple but it's not easy to do and uh but i just love from the very the very beginning though about the opportunities in life are rare the really great opportunities in life will be rare you know why would the world be any other way why would it be where every day someone says hey buddy want to make 100 million dollars you know this is that's not how the world works and so when you accept that you know i think that's a great for a filter to tune out a lot of the noise because you stop looking at every single stock or trying to you know load up your portfolio with tons of different things you know you see the you see how that doesn't agree with reality and fundamentally that's like the most charlie monger thing ever is avoiding things that don't agree that don't agree with reality um to the next point about you know having what i said preparation you know and going back to what agrees with reality you know to get what you want in life you need to deserve what you want in life there's always going to be a you know person or two or an anomaly a statistical anomaly that just gets really lucky and you know unfairly wins a lot of success but you know generally speaking that's the way the world works you need to deserve the things you know you get what you put in and so you need to prepare yourself you need to do the kind of the kind of research and reading and expand your mind in a way that would allow you to even identify those opportunities and also remember that the opportunities that you're looking for are going to be more often than not those that others don't see and so if you're trying to do what everyone else does that's not going to work out well why would it work where you can imitate someone else and get exceptional results because that would just be or imitate the herd rather and get exceptional results you know mimicking the herd revi uh invites reversion to the mean as a charlie quote that is another very true statement so if let's say everyone on wall street has a very narrow lens or looks at things from a very narrow perspective by broadening your mind by learning the big ideas from all the big disciplines you're potentially able to see things that they miss and that's something that charlie munger i think is a prime example of not only that working in a lot of areas of life but why it's so useful uh in investing uh byd is an example that comes to mind he brought that deal to warren buffett's attention in 2008 you know who he who was thinking about ev and electric cars in china let alone back then um and who would actually have the no uh you know would have the knowledge and and the the capability to see that this is something that we should really get into and that's been an amazing investment for berkshire um next up the aggressiveness you know you think of like oh just sit back and wait for opportunities as this very passive thing but you have to remember that when that opportunity comes along and there's not many of them so when they come along you have to strike you have to really be decisive and aggressive and you know that requires a certain you can't be timid and one of the things that he's talked about and charlie i say he i mean charlie and warren have talked about is not just errors of commission but areas of omission the things that they they saw but they didn't act on or they didn't act aggressively enough on one example that comes to mind that i've heard charlie talk about is the lack of um lack of action on google you know through geico which is owned by berkshire hathaway they saw how well google ads were working you know they had an amazing perspective of just how effective google's business was and the value that it created and despite that they didn't load up on google and that they they rubbed their nose and their uh in their mistakes and they've said that was an error of omission it's something you didn't do or didn't do it aggressively enough um so it does require this sort of like duality where on one end you're very patient you delay gratification but then this other end where you're like let's go it's like somebody who um here's an analogy a freestyle analogy somebody who let's say they uh you know they're really studious and they never party right they're just always goody two shoes they're always you know in by in by bedtime up in the morning they don't you know ever have a sip of alcohol but when they finish their whatever uh college thesis i'm making this up i didn't want to say sat because i'm like that'd be underage drinking but when they finish it they you know they go out and they like you know buy bottles they're vip and live they're uh you know pouring champagne on themselves like that kind of you have to you wait wait wait wait wait but when it shows up you have to go and you have to be willing to to go hard um but preparing your mind and being able to really know what you're doing and being very knowledgeable allows you to do that and not be as nervous about it the next thing here i said get out of the way so let compounding work its magic and as all the the math shows us when we get in the way we tend to interrupt the compounding process i've said this before the more we move the more we lose of course it's not a one size fits all but generally speaking if you're the type of person that wants to buy individual stocks you know you want to buy the stocks you'd never have to really touch you just let them do their thing for a very long time decades you know charlie munger bought his berkshire hathaway shares for 16 a share and he's just let that go and now what's it trading for 400 something thousand so prime example anyway on that note that's charlie munger's investment strategy uh based on my extensive understanding of charlie munger i just wanted to make it more understandable easier to understand and just show like i think the contrast of his approach versus what you typically hear people saying is right even a lot of people on youtube i see they'll go through like how they're actually investing and i kind of cringe because it's it doesn't agree with reality it's it's an approach that's proven over time to not be as as um as consistently a winner as something like what charlie munger does but charlie munger again he he's not like everybody that's one of the reasons i'm such a fan of his is uh you know he he reaches his own conclusions and it's rooted in first and foremost and i started off with this but it's rooted in reality it's about seeing the world as it is you know he said before reality is talking to anyone who will listen so the question is what are you doing to to hear better and then are you actually adapting and adjusting your approach based on that reality so
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